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Jaylen Waddle is on the COVID-19 list, priming Mike Gesicki to smash the OVER on his Underdog Fantasy line this weekend. Gesicki already sees 6.8 (No. 3 among qualified tight ends) Targets Per Game and he will surely benefit from Waddle’s vacated 8.9 Targets Per Game. Consequently, Gesicki’s 25.3-percent (No. 5) Air Yards Share has no where to go but up. He has hit 46 receiving yards in eight out of thirteen games this season and he’ll certainly hit the OVER against the Jets on Sunday.

Everyone has the Bills projected to crush the Panthers today and that can make it tempting to take the OVER on this line. However, Stefon Diggs will find it difficult to produce against one of the leagues best cornerbacks, Stephon Gilmore. A quick glance at Gilmore’s player page on PlayerProfiler.com shows that he has allowed only 2 receptions since joining the Panthers in Week 10. Diggs has hit the OVER on this line in four out of 13 games this season. Now is the time to hit the UNDER.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

This is a tough week to find good reliable values in the index. The guys that are the best values in this index have the touchdown scoring upside but also have the upside of putting up zero points. Myles Gaskin is the only player on the list that has a trustworthy floor, the others have multiple touchdown upside but also have zero point downside.
 

George Kittle will be massive chalk, but has broken the slate in back-to-back weeks. His 40-percent Target Share in Weeks 13 and 14 are likely an outlier, but his normal Target Share outside of those weeks was still a healthy 21-percent. I believe this game is the biggest blowout on the slate and would be open to running some three-plus player stacks on the 49ers side of the ball.

Regardless if Chase Edmonds is activated from IR, James Conner is still very much in play. The Cardinals have a slate-high 30-point implied team total and some of that should be expected to be earned on the ground. The Lions rank No. 10 or worse in Rushing Yards Allowed (135/gm/avg), Rushing TD Percentage (41-percent), and aFPA (No. 4). He makes for a nice one-off too if you’re fading Kyler Murray in a lineup or two.

Through 13 games, Ja’Marr Chase leads all rookie wideouts in total receiving yards (1,035) and receiving yards per game (79.6). His 17.2 (No. 8 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game tops all rookie WRs and is 0.1 point higher than the mark achieved by former LSU teammate Justin Jefferson in 2020. The fifth overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft accrues 15.58 Lifetime Value points (the most of any WR this update) to move up to WR2 in dynasty.

Battling a hamstring strain for multiple weeks, DeAndre Hopkins will now miss the remainder of the regular season with a knee injury. Unsurprisingly, Hopkins hasn’t been the top 5 WR option in 2021 that fantasy gamers have grown accustomed to. He has averaged 14.7 (No. 21) Fantasy Points per Game, finishing as a WR1 just three times this season (Weeks 1, 6, and 7). Turning 30-years-old next June, Hopkins loses 32.02 Lifetime Value points and a dozen spots to fall to WR37.

How to lose a Tony Pollard rookie card. Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson cannot co-exist.

D.K. Metcalf is better off with Russell Wilson under center. Amon-Ra St. Brown is dominating D’Wayne Eskridge, Josh Palmer, and Amari Rodgers.

With field salivating to play Gabriel Davis this week, pivot off the chalk to an underplayed Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs as the unquestioned target alpha in that offense. In the wake of the DeAndre Hopkins injury, A.J. Green is being forgotten about despite his fantasy friendly role in Arizona’s high-powered offense. He’s too cheap to ignore this week.

Although the Cowboys have recently struggled with the passing game, I would fire up all your Cowboys pass catchers, but temper expectations because this game is shaping up to be a lower scoring match up. With the low point total projected for the Giants offense, and the matchup problems they will face against the Dallas defense, this has all the makings of a game dominated by the Dallas running backs.

So is there a DFS dart throw available for the Giants? Sterling Shepard makes a strong case! He has a 131.2 (90th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Burst Score, which is comparable to former Cowboy Dez Bryant. New York may be in a setting where they need to pass the ball playing from behind, so if a desperation play at wide receiver is needed, there is enough evidence to use Shepard.

Just playing probabilities, Trey Lance is unlikely to surpass Mac Jones as an NFL QB.

Jalen Hurts has earned the benefit of the doubt.

Everything is still chugging along on the Najee Harris bandwagon. Harris ranks first among all running backs in Snap Share (85.9-percent), Opportunity Share (87.9-percent), and Weighted Opportunities (260). He’s No. 3 in carries with 237 of them, and second in targets with 75 on the season. When looking up workhorse in the dictionary, a picture of Harris shows up. You’ve ridden him this far; why stop now?

He isn’t Derrick Henry, but D’Onta Foreman has passed the test of filling his shoes. For the second consecutive game, Foreman led the way for the run-heaviest team in the NFL. Not only is he getting the majority of the work, but he’s been heavily utilized in the red zone as well, which is what every fantasy gamer yearns for from their running back. Everything is set up for Foreman to smash this week.

Remember when the Chiefs stunk? It seems like forever ago, but now the re-juiced Kansas City defense is scorching hot. Patrick Mahomes is still struggling to put up fantasy points, but Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been revived. Finally, Clyde Edwards-Helaire looks to stay hot with his 4th straight top-24 RB performance.

The Chargers are surging and only one game back from the AFC West lead. Justin Herbert and Austin Ekeler are red hot and have become one of the league’s best QB-RB combos. Keenan Allen has been having a phenomenal year, and returns to action this week coming off of the COVID-list. Finally, Mike Williams continues to try to work back to his elite early season production level.