Featured Articles

A.J. Brown’s hamstring looks good for Sunday and so does this line. Jacksonville allows 312.2 passing yards per game, the 3rd most in the NFL. The Titans will look to exploit this, as they run an above average 38.0 Team Pass Plays Per Game (No. 10). Brown will return to an elevated target share, with the absence of Julio Jones, resulting in more opportunities to beat cornerback Shaquill Griffin. Griffin, with his +8.5 Coverage Rating (No. 85 among qualified CBs), is going to get torched by Brown.

Justin Herbert will be tested against Cleveland, a team with a strong defense and an offense that controls the time of possession. The Browns allow only 183.8 pass yards per game and have 14.0 sacks through Week 4, making the case strong to take the under on a passing yards line. Cleveland’s offense will provide a challenge for Herbert to eclipse 292.5 passing yards because they run league high 35.0 Team Run Plays Per Game (No. 1) with a slow 1.87 Pace Of Play, which limits the time of possession and total drives for opposing offenses. I’ll let the Chargers’ strength and conditioning coach cut my hair if Herbert is somehow able to produce over 292.5 passing yards.

In college, Kenny Gainwell stood out in a loaded Memphis backfield. It appears to be deja-vu in Philly. On the season, Gainwell has 19 carries and earned 18 targets, compared to Sanders’ 37 and 14, respectively. While the two are equal in terms of True Yards Per Carry (4.4), Gainwell has been the more efficient back. He leads his running  mate in metrics such as Evaded Tackles (7 to 4), Juke Rate (21.9 to 8.3-percent), and Yards Per Touch (6.2 to 5.7). Gainwell earns 14.29 Lifetime Value points to jump eight spots to RB28.

Ben Roethlisberger has struggled mightily since the first snap of 2021. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, since he wasn’t necessarily sharp to close out 2020. Big Ben leads the league in both Danger Plays (20) and Interceptable Passes (18). He’s averaging a weak 6.1 Yards Per Attempt (No. 31) with a True Passer Rating of 48.4-percent (No. 30). Four weeks and three losses into the Steelers’ 2021 campaign, Roethlisberger has yet to post a Top 20 QB fantasy finish. His best result is a 15.2 point QB23 performance in Week 3. The stock of the 39-year-old signal caller continues its decent losing another four spots to QB38.

Michael Thomas is expected to return Week 7. I expect him to completely open up this offense and finally give the Saints another dimension they so desperately need. Do I expect them to be high flying through the air? No, but they will increase their passing volume significantly. Finally Jameis Winston can get the ball go to a weapon in the passing game. Once he’s back he will lead the league in target share and be a PPR superstar again. Go get Thomas before your league mates remember who he is.

As historically bad as tight ends have been their rookie year, it may not be enough to derail Kyle Pitts’ breakout. His raw talent is unquestioned but that’s not what will make him productive this season. He has 135 Routes Run (No. 3), 26 Targets (No. 6), 219 Air Yards (No. 6), 6 Red Zone Targets (No. 2). The Falcons are using him and its only a matter of time before his production matches what his metrics suggest. Go get him from the disappointed owner who drafted him.

We saw late last year that Cleveland is willing to play a higher-pace, pass-first style if drawn into it by a high-octane opponent and the Chargers could be that team. The Chargers are among the fastest-paced, most pass-heavy teams in the league this year and concentrate targets heavily between four players. I’m willing to stack the Cleveland side of this game with Mayfield, Beckham and Austin Hooper, or to roll out a Chargers stack with Chubb. I’m also quite interested in Mike Williams as a contrarian tournament option.

With the Bengals potentially losing Joe Mixon this week, I expect Cincinnati to build on their progression last week and turn in their most pass-heavy game-plan of 2021. All three Bengals wideouts are under $6000 and I will be playing each. I expect the lowest owned to be Ja’Marr Chase given the highest price ($5800), although its possible Tee Higgins comes in under his ownership projection in his first game back from injury. At just $5000 he’s one of the best values on the slate.

Trevor Lawrence has the easiest matchup of his season in terms of passing and recently discovered his love for playmaker Laviska Shenault. If he can put all three together, we could see a big Week 5. I am concerned about the Titans above-average pressure rate while forcing 20 hurries on the quarterback thus far. Lawrence has been dreadful with defenders in his face, with only a 31.3-percent (No. 29 among qualified quarterbacks) Pressured Completion Rate. However, if this forces him to run more often, I’m all for it. 

D’Andre Swift has and hasn’t been what we hoped for throughout the first four weeks. Against the Vikings, volume shouldn’t be an issue as they are giving up 119 total touches to the position. If Michael Pierce misses time, this DFS Week 5 matchup could be even more enticing. As for Justin Jefferson, I don’t know how you can fade either one. With Kirk Cousins and the offense coming off a bad week, this is the perfect opportunity for a bounce back. Cousins hasn’t put up two sub par performances consecutively since 2019. Don’t expect it to happen against the Lions, regardless of how far they pull ahead.

Prescott has tossed ten Touchdown Passes (No. 3), seven of which have come in the two games. His 78-percent True Completion Percentage (No. 3) is quite impressive as well, especially at 33.25 Attempts Per Game. The Giants have allowed 7 Passing Touchdowns (No. 5) and 23.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (No. 10). It’s time to go back to Dak.

Dalton Shultz is a nice pivot off the chalky Dallas receivers. The Prescott/Shultz stack is an interesting pairing considering Shultz’ low 6.3-percent projected ownership. Shultz is coming off back to back games seeing Target Shares of 28 and 37.5-percent.

What happened to Spencer Rattler? Garrett Wilson or Treylon Burks should go to Philadelphia

Pittsburgh should sign Aaron Rodgers and draft Zion Nelson. Stephon Gilmore needs to find a contender with cap space.

Since relieving the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinicke has been a fantasy revelation. He’s finished as a top 12 QB  in each of his three starts. Yet despite this, DraftKings won’t budge on his sub $6k price. Heinicke is cheap and has been productive through the air and on the ground. By pairing him with his favorite target, you can expect a solid target floor with plenty of ceiling, as we saw last week. With McLaurin’s bump in price, he also becomes an intriguing leverage point off some more popular WRs in the same price range (D.J. Moore and Deebo Samuel in particular).

Tampa’s league-leading 3.14 Pace of Play fuels all of their volume and allows Tom Brady to keep playing at a high level. This week, they have one of the highest implied team totals, and have shown a willingness to continue throwing both near the goal line and when leading in games. We’re paying up for the more expensive of the lead WRs with Mike Evans. Between Evans and Chris Godwin, we’re making a play for ceiling given their respective roles.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

This is a strange week for running backs with many of the top running backs, not on the Sunday main slate. D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, and Mark Ingram are players to have in the player pool for tournaments provided they are active and healthy. Swift and Harris can be used in cash lineups due to limited options at running back on the main slate.

The Rams are rolling and Matthew Stafford is balling. They face off against the Seahawks and their near league worst defense, which bodes well for the success of fantasy assets Darrell Henderson and Cooper Kupp.

The Seahawks have been struggling to win, and Chef Russ hasn’t been cooking the last two weeks. With the projected Game Script and Chris Carson likely out, Seattle will pass more. Tyler Lockett looks to have another boom week, while D.K. Metcalf draws the short straw with his matchup against Jalen Ramsey.