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An early lesson learned back in my minion days as a lurker on the PlayerProfiler website was not to overvalue a player’s Best Comparable Players. One look at Travis Etienne’s comps, however, shows why he is the No. 1 running back in the 2021 rookie class. All five of his Best Comparable Players have had at least one season with 200 carries. Taking carries from James Robinson is the hurdle for Etienne to secure a mid-RB2 floor with top five upside.

Measuring at 6-1 and 232-pounds, Najee Harris has the adequate size to be a bell-cow running back in the NFL. On the other hand, his glaring lack of Pro Day workout metrics was concerning for dynasty managers in rookie drafts. If Joe Mixon and Leonard Fournette’s backend-RB1 seasons are Harris’ ceiling, then James Conner’s backend RB2 seasons in 2019 and 2020 represent his floor.

As far as fourth round running backs, it can be argued that Josh Jacobs, who often falls into the fifth round, provides the best value compared to similarly drafted players in Mike Davis, Travis Etienne, and Myles Gaskin. His locked-in goal line usage can lead to explosive, week-winning games. And his guaranteed 13-17 carries per game will buoy his floor, meaning he is a safe RB2 with top-15 upside.

Jacobs has historically thrived despite a crowded backfield and a weak line because of the insane number of opportunities he receives. While Kenyan Drake’s addition will likely take some touches away, in a 17-game schedule and with the league increasingly adopting a committee approach, this dampening effect will be minimal. Jacobs will continue to be a talented, volume-driven runner behind a line which is sneakily better than the unit rolled onto the field last year. 

For any and all of you who aren’t Best Ball purists yet, the hardest decisions in fantasy football are made week to week. At quarterback specifically, if you don’t have a Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson-type player that you lock and load each week, often you are making weekly decisions between two uninspiring quarterback options. These are tough and often impactful choices that determine the final outcome of the week.

Projections try to capture the expected value in a player’s performance, rather than try to predict the inherently unpredictable outlier games that players put up. When do quarterbacks put up big numbers? When are they more likely to have outlier performances? Quarterbacks perform best when the opposing quarterback is having a big fantasy day.

In consecutive seasons, the Cardinals have averaged 37.8 Team Pass Plays per Game. Kyler Murray’s carries per game jumped from 5.8 in 2019 to 8.3 last season, his per-game rushing yards jumped from 34 to 51.2, and his touchdowns jumped from 4 to 11. While the team averaged 29.9 (No. 6) Team Run Plays Per Game last season, because of the number of plays per game, he’s a rare dual-threat Konami code QB that will rival 600 pass attempts.

James Conner is the poster boy for Zero RB drafters this season. From Weeks 1-11, he was RB16 (minimum seven games played) on a points-per-game basis, averaging 13.4 Fantasy Points Per Game before catching COVID. Now reunited with his former RBs coach, who guided him to his best season in 2018, Conner steps into Kenyan Drake’s role that included a league-leading 35 Green Zone carries, even with Kyler Murray being a dual-threat.

Will Clyde Edwards-Helaire finish as a top five fantasy RB this year? No clue. Does it make sense given his pedigree and situation that he’s being drafted well behind the likes of Joe Mixon, Antonio Gibson, and Najee Harris based on Underdog ADP? No. His ceiling case is much easier to envision than one where he falls outside the top 15 RBs this year.

We’ve got no evidence that the Cowboys can’t get back to a similar level of offensive output this season with Dak Prescott, his wickedly talented trio of receivers, and Ezekiel Elliott all returning to beat up on a division that saw a 7-9 team make the playoffs last season. If Prescott is healthy, there’s an obvious ceiling case for Elliott, especially at the slight discount he can be had at in Underdog drafts right now.

We don’t give Antonio Brown enough credit for walking into Tampa Bay midseason and immediately making an impact. Brown finished with an 11.8 (No. 26) Half-PPR Fantasy Points per Game average through Week 17. He displayed a low floor, but in eight games, he provided more to best ball rosters than T.Y. Hilton, Jerry Jeudy, and others did over the whole season. Considering he now has an entire offseason to become more acclimated to the offense, there is a huge buy-low opportunity present.

Lamar Jackson’s rushing ability gives him an elite floor that is desirable in standard formats, but his lack of ceiling held Jackson to 55.2 (No. 10) Best Ball Points Added. The Ravens face the league’s best Game Script and play and the league’s slowest pace. Jackson isn’t required to rack up the production that other quarterbacks like Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott, even with his rushing volume. If the team’s pace doesn’t increase, Jackson paying off his QB4 price could be a mirage for believers.

There’s always the chance that a fear-based run wipes out more of a position than expected in a given SFB11 draft. This is why adaptation and improvisation are the words of the day. Though you’ll want to end up with one of our CORNERSTONE QBs if possible, it will be easier to overcome a run on elite QBs than it will to overcome a run of elite TEs, mainly due to the sheer volume of points being given up when passing on an elite option.

Eight quarterbacks were selected in the first round of this exercise. All of whom have some Konami Code to their game. And all of whom we’ve identified as the difference-making QBs we need to target in most seasonal league formats. But not all of these QBs should be considered first-round SFB11 values over certain skill position players given the structure of the rules. In fact, SFB11’s scoring settings boosts players like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins.

Zach Wilson is an NFL starter from day one on an ascending Jets offense supported by a revamped supporting cast featuring former first round pick Corey Davis and rookie Elijah Moore. Mac Jones has already narrowed the gap between himself and Cam Newton such that the two are reportedly in a full-blown QB competition to start training camp. It should not surprise anyone if the 2021 season ends and either Wilson or Jones are the highest valued player taken in the first round of this mock.

Jacob Harris has received some buzz lately, converting from wide receiver to tight end. He makes for an intriguing dynasty practice squad stash in the event he is able to make the conversion. Another player’s positional development that will be interesting to see is Demetric Felton. Cleveland’s rookie running back played in both the slot and behind the line of scrimmage in college. He may have a quicker path to fantasy relevance if he converts to wide receiver.

Given the SFB11 scoring rules, it almost seems they were designed specifically to emphasize the importance of each kick at the expense of the kicker’s overall upside. Instead of having the harmless upside of scoring five points, a 50-yard attempt now has an 8-point delta (five points for the make, but minus three for the miss). You actually have something to lose now. Fantasy’s safest position is no longer risk-free, and the best choice we can make is to fade the hype.

By round 11, you’ve theoretically filled out your entire starting lineup from each of the other positions. Drafting a kicker for stability is still a good idea if you wait for the right moment. Once your roster is filled out, you want players with high upside that would see a production premium in the event of an injury to the starter. Your kicker is likely to start every single game, so there isn’t as much volatility in expected points per game.

In 15 games last year, Kenyan Drake scored 10 (No. 10 among qualified running backs) total touchdowns and had 955 (No. 12) rushing yards. And the Cardinals brought James Conner in to fill that role. He’s going to get touches and goal line carries. He can easily outpace Drake’s production in those first three games, but even if he simply replicates it and manages to stay healthy, his trade value will double from his current ADP.

Raheem Mostert is the RB1 in San Francisco for now. But he’s on the last year of his deal, has trouble staying healthy, and Kyle Shanahan has a long history of turning unheralded running backs into fantasy gold. The 49ers spent two of their seven picks in this year’s draft on the running back position. With Jeff Wilson already injured, the path is illuminated for either Trey Sermon or Elijah Mitchell to get an opportunity right from the jump. And if they do, the schedule will be incredibly kind to them.