The Last Word on Pro Day vs. Combine 40-Yard Dash Times

by Josh Larky, April 25, 2021

There was no organized 2021 NFL Scouting Combine; rather, each college put on their individual pro day workouts, with the vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone drill, and of course, the 40-yard Dash. In this piece, we’ll outline why we are adjusting the results of these 2021 pro day 40-times up by 0.05 seconds.

If widespread intuition is correct, and pro day 40-times are generally faster, then as an NFL player data authority, it is our duty to adjust pro day results to be on par with NFL Combine results, offering the sports public a true apples to apples comparison of every player at every position.  

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Dynasty Buys: Chase Edmonds and Bryan Edwards are Criminally Undervalued

by Matt Babich, April 25, 2021

The case for Chase Edmonds is clear. He’s the secret code to get into the good analysts room. The Cardinals signing Conner over other free agents and rookies is a vote of confidence in Edmonds’ ability, not a warning sign. The stock is there for the taking 20 weeks before it skyrockets. It’s time to take advantage.

Bryan Edwards has all the tools he needs to succeed. His elite frame and college production are traits to bet on. If Edwards finishes at or above the mid-WR3 range in his age 22 NFL season, he should gain at least 30 additional Lifetime Value points. That would nearly double his current value. Given his talent and situation, this target finish is well within reach. If you have the chance to get out from under this downtrending, top-heavy 2021 class and nab Edwards in return, do it.

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Back to the Future – Ja’Marr Chase

by Al Scherer, April 24, 2021

Ja’Marr Chase wins with both athleticism and strength. His workout metrics were similar to Corey Coleman’s – only with more speed. His 33.4-percent (62nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating was solid – if not quite as good as Coleman’s – but what can we expect for a guy sharing targets with Justin Jefferson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Terrace Marshall?

Corey Coleman and Ja’Marr Chase are the only two wide receivers in the PlayerProfiler database with a Best Comparable Player of Odell Beckham. Although they have similar comps, Chase has better hands, wins in more ways and has excelled on the biggest stage against top NFL draft picks. If your dynasty roster calls for a WR stud, follow Player Profiler Dynasty Deluxe and Breakout Finder app recommendations and confidently select Chase.

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It’s Time to Move Sam Darnold in Dynasty Leagues

by Lucas Mir, April 24, 2021

During his time under Adam Gase, Ryan Tannehill posted above average marks in Yards per Attempt, Completion Percentage, and Touchdown Percentage. In contrast, Sam Darnold has been greatly below the league average in each of these statistics while playing under Gase. Both of these players suffered from low passing volume. The real difference is that Tannehill was able to make the best of his opportunities while Darnold has wasted them.

Sam Darnold is being drafted as a fringe top 100 player in SuperFlex startups. Despite producing fantasy production comparable to a mediocre wide receiver, he is still being priced near much more effective quarterbacks, and that can be used to gain value. If there is another manager who believes that there is hope for Darnold to have his breakout season, now is the time to cash in.

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AFC South Offseason Recap and Power Rankings

by Christopher Buonagura, April 23, 2021

The Colts are an upper-tier franchise and annual playoff contender. Chris Ballard built his culture, promotes from within and grows this team through the draft. Boasting a fierce offensive line and well-groomed defense makes this team one quarterback away from a championship. Carson Wentz regaining his MVP-caliber form would be the missing link. On the other hand, his history of cataclysmic failure repeating itself would sink this team to the deepest pits of despair.

Few people will argue that the Texans are the league’s worst team heading into 2021 if Deshaun Watson misses games. This team is fresh off of a complete tear down and rebuild. The offseason moves indicate one thing, the goal is not to win games. 2021 is a tryout and culture-building year with over 20 players added during free agency. This was the right move to revamp player morale.

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Underdog Best Ball ADPs to Smash At Value

by Will Barrett, April 22, 2021

On top of breaking the single season receptions record in 2019, Michael Thomas was also the WR1 in fantasy by a long shot. Although he wasn’t as electric in 2020, he was still the clear alpha while on the field. Look no further than his leading all qualified wide receivers with a 42.5-percent Air Yards Share. I will be ecstatic to take him at a discount this year.

In his rookie season, Brandon Aiyuk logged a 100.0-percent (No. 1) Route Participation rate and a 31.1-percent (No. 28) Air Yards Share. He put on a show against top corners like Kendall Fuller, Marshon Lattimore, and others. With Aiyuk likely getting a QB upgrade, I’ll pass on receivers like Cooper Kupp, Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen to smash the value with Aiyuk.

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AFC West Offseason Recap and Power Rankings

by Christopher Buonagura, April 21, 2021

The Kansas City Chiefs remain the league’s most difficult team to beat. Their Super Bowl loss and offensive line reshuffle do not change that. They will remain dominant until Patrick Mahomes’ annual salary increases 40-plus million per year and limits roster construction. Retaining Eric Bieniemy for another year also helps. No need to overthink it on this one. 

The Broncos enter 2021 with a well-built roster. The offense is loaded with weapons and the offensive line play made a leap forward in 2020. Vic Fangio’s defense has talented playmakers at all three levels. The return of most significant starters and coaching personnel suggests good year-to-year consistency by this organization. Team and coaching personnel that have years to develop together have an edge on Sundays.

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Diamonds In The Rough: Late-Round Rookie Running Backs To Know

by Alex Johnson, April 20, 2021

Chris Evans is a good athlete with the size and contact balance to be a productive runner in the league. He possesses the skills to be a reliable contributor on passing downs as well, whether it be as a receiver out of the backfield or in the slot, or in pass protection. Given the opportunity to finally put it all together, Evans can wind up as the ultimate diamond in the rough out of the 2021 class.

Elijah Mitchell is a good all-around back. He’s fast with elite explosiveness and he’s elusive enough to make the first tackler miss. He profiles as a committee back who can emerge as a playmaker in the passing game. Draft capital will likely come mid-to-late day three. He’s certainly a top candidate to be this year’s late-round diamond. He can fall into a lead job on a weak depth chart that sees its top back go down early.

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