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For the next few months, the RotoUnderworld community will be partaking in a series of 12-team, five-round rookie mock drafts. The mock drafters will be comprised of PlayerProfiler writers/analysts, our friends in the Patreon community and our friends over at The Breakout Finder. While these pieces will include quick-hitting notes from the drafters about why they made their selection, our writers will take turns recapping the festivities and adding their own unique perspectives.

Coming away with any real takeaways from the first round of any rookie mock draft will be difficult unless there’s a player or two that end up going higher or lower than consensus. Of the players picked in the first round, only Elijah Moore is not ranked among our top 12 dynasty rookies. He’s not that far off, but making an argument for him over a Terrace Marshall or a Kenny Gainwell in this spot is more than feasible given his advanced stats and metrics.

It’s RotoUnderworld vs. RosterWatch in a fierce, ongoing, totally-serious-with-no-room-for-cheeky-shenanigans series of fantasy football mock drafts. We begin with a recap of the first five-round rookie mock under the RW vs. RU banner.

As is the case in every mock draft, there will be picks that wildly stray from what is perceived to be consensus, depending on who you ask of course. The “Kyle Pitts No Matter What” crowd will have no issue with seeing him go at 1.04, even in a single QB, non-TE premium format. However, the first real Point of Divergence came with Cody Carpentier’s 1.06 selection of Jermar Jefferson over Javonte Williams. 

On a live edition of the Sonic Truth Dynasty Podcast, The Podfather Matt Kelley (@Fantasy_Mansion) and Nate Liss (@AnOutragedJew) break down a recent fantasy football dynasty league rookie mock draft vs. RosterWatch.

Adam Thielen earned 108 (No. 27 among qualified wide receivers) Targets and a 24.4-percent (No. 16) Target Share, with 1,291 (No. 21) Air Yards and a 35.3-percent (No. 11) Air Yards Share. Not bad right? Well, he barely ranked inside the top-24 with 74 (No. 23) Receptions and 925 (No. 24) Receiving Yards. His 18.2-percent (No. 4) Touchdown Rate is likely unsustainable year-over-year, and gives us an opportunity to place him on the trade block.

The Panthers used Robby Anderson in more of a possession-type role, evidenced by his 7.9 (No. 62) Yards Per Target and 9.6 (No. 64) Average Target Distance marks. Due to the lack of touchdowns, he only finished with a 13.8 (No. 30) Fantasy Points per Game despite hauling in 95 (No. 8) Receptions for 1,088 (No. 13) Receiving Yards. Regardless, his dynasty stock increased from 2019 to 2020 given his career-best season across the board.

Bryan Edwards and Denzel Mims are alphas in waiting, sorry Henry Ruggs. Jalen Hurts is like a more accurate Josh Allen.

Jalen Reagor would be helped by Ja’Marr Chase like Jerry Jeudy will be helped by Courtland Sutton. Trevor Lawrence is the 1.01 in superflex and 2-QB but you don’t actually want to use that pick.

Rashod Bateman is an excellent wide receiver prospect and a consensus first-round NFL and dynasty draft pick. His advanced stats and metrics are great, but does his college career suggest a WR1, a true Batman, to target in first rounds of dynasty drafts? Or does it describe a Robin, a higher-floor, lower-ceiling WR2 and lesser dynasty value?

Bateman becoming a top NFL wide receiver would belie his college performance and would be an outlier. His college performance suggests a solid NFL player, a WR2 or WR3 on a fantasy team, but not what we should be looking for in a first-round rookie pick.

Time to pivot away from Mike Evans in dynasty. The Kyle Pitts ADP needs a reality check.

Rondale Moore is about to melt faces at his regional pro day. Big expectations for Jalen Hurts this season.

Teams should not overpay for running backs in free agency, but they will. The only real candidate to earn a bumper payday this year is Aaron Jones. You can’t say that he has not been productive or efficient during his time with the Green Bay Packers. Since 2017, despite seeing the 18th-most Carries among all running backs (649), Jones has racked up 3,459 Rushing Yards, good for eight-most.

The splits between JuJu Smith-Schuster’s first two NFL seasons and his last two are quite dramatic. He settled back into his slot specialist role in 2020, leading all wide receivers with an 82.2-percent Slot Rate. Smith-Schuster finished the season with 97 (No. 7) Receptions on his 128 (No. 15) Targets, with a 95.1-percent (No. 6) True Catch Rate. He also scored nine (No. 9) Touchdowns. But he averaged a dismal 8.6 (No. 104) Yards per Reception and a dreary 6.5 (No. 96) Yards per Target.

With Zach Ertz likely out in Philadelphia and Jalen Hurts taking over the reigns at QB, Dallas Goedert has an appealing ceiling. Last season, he posted a +9.1 (No. 6 among qualified tight ends) Production Premium and a +14.7-percent (No. 6) Target Premium. This is a highly efficient player on a team with an abundance of vacated targets and a potential upgrade at quarterback. He’s the perfect type of tight end to target in the middle rounds.

A great example of a player that needs to be targeted in upcoming startup drafts is Rams running back Cam Akers. The Rams showed late last season that they are ready to let the second-rounder roll. With Malcolm Brown likely gone, Akers has only Darrell Henderson to compete with. Add in an upgrade at quarterback, and the second-year back is primed for a big 2021. Oh yeah, he’ll be a youthful 22 years old when the season begins.

Amari Rodgers is the next slot monster in the NFL. Shi Smith is underrated. Najee Harris is an undoubtable bell cow.
Larry Rountree deserves more buzz.