Analyzing 2020 Rookie Wide Receivers – The Five Most Productive

by Corbin Young, December 31, 2020

Along with numerous opportunities, Justin Jefferson also ranks highly in several efficiency metrics. He boasts a +24.8 (No. 8 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium with 11.2 (No. 4) Yards Per Target and averages 16.0 (No. 9) Yards per Reception. Heading into 2021, he will demolish his past 2020 ADP and likely rank as a high-end WR2 pushing WR1 territory. He made a strong argument as Minnesota’s top wide receiver and the best in this rookie class.

Through 12 games in 2020, Brandon Aiyuk averages 15.4 (No. 17) Fantasy Points per Game on 60 (No. 30) receptions, 748 (No. 35) receiving yards, and seven (No. 17) total touchdowns with a 10.6-percent Touchdown Rate. Seeing the discrepancy in Fantasy Points per Game and receiving production tells us that the high Touchdown Rate boosted his fantasy production. Imagine what his fantasy production would look like if he maintained a similar pace to his most productive six-game stretch over a full season.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 16

by Edward DeLauter, December 27, 2020

Calvin Ridley has transformed into the Air Yards Value king over the course of the past two weeks. During this time, he has seen over 200 Air Yards and at least 12 targets in each game. He finished as the WR3 in Week 14 and the WR1 in Week 15. Somehow, despite this production, Ridley is not the highest priced receiver on the slate. Exploit this error by DraftKings and make Ridley a mainstay across all formats.

Jerry Jeudy doesn’t seem to be the same after suffering an ankle injury in Week 12. Since then, he has averaged under 50 Air Yards per game. Prior to week 12, he averaged over 100 Air Yards per game. On the off chance that he just needed some additional time for the ankle to get fully healthy he is worth a tournament dart throw. However, beware that his recent usage suggests a different trend for his fantasy potential.

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Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 16

by Matthew M. Stevens, December 26, 2020

One bust week and one boom week earned Quez Watkins his Weekly Volatility score of 8.3, which ranks No. 24 among qualified wide receivers. It’s a sign of things to come from the sixth-round pick out of Southern Miss. At the stone minimum of $3,000 on DraftKings, he offers gamers salary relief and flexible roster construction coupled with upside. And at low projected rostership, he’s also a leverage play in large-field GPPs.

Chase Claypool’s recent streak of bust games figures to end sooner than later given his volatile nature. While JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson dink and dunk with short passes from Ben Roethlisberger, Claypool leads the team with a 29.4-percent (No. 32 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share and 25 (No. 5) Deep Targets. And priced at a salary of $5,900 with a fantasy ceiling of 40 points, he offers an intriguing play.

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Dynasty Market Movers: Week 15 Report

by Steve Smith, December 26, 2020

Tony Pollard made good on his shot at a lead role following Ezekiel Elliott’s surprise inactive designation in Week 15. Playing 92.9-percent of the snaps versus the 49ers, Pollard rushed a dozen times for 132 total yards and two touchdowns, going six of nine in the passing game. He was the fantasy RB1 on the week. He gained 22.81 Lifetime Value points to rise from RB37 to RB27 on the dynasty rankings.

With his ankle injury nagging and with high postseason hopes, the Saints opted to place Michael Thomas on injured reserve heading into Week 15. Obviously, this ends his availability for dynasty leagues in 2020. Hopefully a return to form in the post season can help to rejuvenate his dynasty stock. For now, the soon to be 28-year old is among the biggest losers Lifetime Value points, slipping from WR8 to WR11 on the rankings .

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The Infirmary- PlayerProfiler’s Week 16 Injury Report

by The “Mad Chatter” Ryan MK, December 26, 2020

Melvin Gordon is a great play this week with Phillip Lindsay out. Gordon has played quietly well this season, ranking No. 14 among qualified running backs with 173 carries, No. 12 with 814 rush yards and No. 10 with nine total touchdowns. He also ranks in the top-13 at the position in Route Participation, Evaded Tackles and Big Runs. Gordon is a great value in DFS this weekend at $5600.

Christian McCaffrey will once again miss time, leaving the handcuff-of-the-year, Mike Davis, to do his thing. However, the Washington defense is stout versus the run. Speaking of the Washington Football Team, it appears likely they will be without Terry McLaurin. Now that everyone is finally coming to terms with Logan Thomas as a bonafide tight end, what better week to have him in a lineup.

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Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 16

by Taylor Smith, December 26, 2020

Jamison Crowder has once again separated himself as the alpha receiver for the Jets after hauling in six balls for 66 yards in their first win of the season. The Browns rank No. 25 in Defensive Passing DVOA and their slot CB Kevin Johnson is one of their weakest links, allowing big games to Golden Tate, Corey Davis, and Tyler Boyd this season. Crowder is a much better play on DK thanks to his low pricing and their full-PPR format. 

XFL DFS cheat code Donald Parham is finally getting his shot in the NFL this week with Hunter Henry on the COVID list. Parham isn’t in play on FD due to his price, but he’s the stone-minimum on DK at $2500. His pricing makes him viable as a Flex option if you want to pay up for Chiefs stacks including Travis Kelce. He also correlates well in Chargers stacks given their high team total (26.0) and his projected red zone role. 

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Week 15 Usage Rates: Start Jalen Hurts And Tyler Higbee In Fantasy Football

by Joshua Kellem, December 24, 2020

Jalen Hurts is a rare high-floor, high-ceiling fantasy asset. The matchup is exploitable this week, too. Up against a Cowboys defense allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, including a three-touchdown performance by Nick Mullens last week, and ranking as the 11th-worst pass DVOA, Hurts is in what #fantasyfootball Twitter calls a smash spot. Cowboys-Eagles have the fifth-highest implied point total of the week as well.

Darnell Mooney has scored in consecutive games, totaling at least a 73.0-percent Snap Share and 27 routes run in each outing. Mooney’s Target Rate last week was 18.5-percent as well. The Bears average 40.7 (No. 8) Team Pass Plays per Game and face off against the Jaguars this week — a defense allowing the ninth-most PPR fantasy points to opposing receivers and ranking as the league’s worst pass DVOA.

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Free Square DFS Running Backs for Week 16

by Taylor Smith, December 24, 2020

The Atlanta Falcons have allowed the fifth-most receptions to RBs on the season, giving a bonafide receiving back like Le’Veon Bell a high-floor. Given the spread of this game, Bell and the Chiefs should see nothing but positive Game Script. His price isn’t cheap, but at $5800, he projects as one of the week’s best values. Plus, there aren’t many exciting RB options without Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, or Derrick Henry on the main slate. 

Melvin Gordon has now averaged over 5.0 yards per touch in three straight games while averaging 18.1 DK fantasy points. He should get a solid usage bump on top of his efficiency this week with both Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman not practicing with hip issues. If they don’t suit up against the Chargers or are limited in any capacity, Gordon’s 59.9-percent (No. 20 among qualified running backs) percent Opportunity Share would certainly rise to elite levels. 

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Buy High and Sell Low Players After Week 15: Irv Smith Championship Winner

by Kyle Dvorchak, December 24, 2020

Last week, with Rudolph sidelined, Irv Smith set new season-highs with an 88.9-percent Snap Share and 35 routes run. The Snap Share was also the second-highest mark of his two-year career. The former second-round selection out of Alabama is beginning to become a weekly fringe-TE1 option and this development shouldn’t be the least bit surprising.

On the year, Chris Godwin does not have a single game with 100 receiving yards or even 100 Air Yards. With the additions of Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown to this team, Godwin has simply not been able to draw targets in the face of steeper competition for looks. He is one of the hardest players to sit this week, but the numbers simply don’t add up to him being a good fantasy play.

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Three DFS Quarterback-Wide Receiver Stacks for Week 16

by Taylor Williams, December 23, 2020

Deshaun Watson leads the league in with 8.8 Yards per Attempt and his 88.5-percent True Completion Percentage is the No. 3-ranked mark among qualified quarterbacks. With a soft matchup at home against the Bengals, this looks like another big week. Brandin Cooks is still the WR to pair with Watson for the highest floor and ceiling. Fully healed from the neck injury, he is set to smash at only $6.2K this week on DraftKings.

Andy Dalton and Amari Cooper are both under $6K this week facing the Philadelphia Eagles at home in a dome in a game with the second-highest total on the slate. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup have been making plays over the last few weeks and are viable stacking combinations as well, but Cooper’s 8.2 Targets per Game rank No. 13 among qualified wide receivers. We’re banking on that volume in a game like this to be the best bet to maximize upside.

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