Analyzing 2020 Rookie Running Backs – Four Players Trending Up

by Corbin Young, December 23, 2020

Antonio Gibson’s speed, athleticism, and pass-catching ability have all translated to the pro game in his rookie season. He holds a +28.0 (No. 4 among qualified running backs) Production Premium, with a 5.2 (No. 17) Yards Per Touch average, 28.3-percent (No. 8) Juke Rate, and 278 (No. 12) Yards Created. Assuming he earns more opportunities, paired with the efficient production, he should rank as a high-end RB2 next season, especially in PPR leagues.

It’s clear that J.K. Dobbins needs more opportunities, and it looks like the Ravens realize that as well. Unless he earns more opportunities in 2021 or continues to maintain his efficiency, he probably ranks as a back-end RB2 inside the top-24. However, with the limited targets and receiving production, he looks better suited for non-PPR leagues as a touchdown-dependent RB2 that has averaged 78.6 total yards over the past seven games.

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Exploring Week 15’s Top Trending Players Via the Player Popularity Index

by Matthew M. Stevens, December 22, 2020

In another first for the PPI rankings, Ohio State prospect Trey Sermon received the most page views for Week 15. Sermon’s explosion in the conference title game boosts his draft stock. He’s a player to keep an eye on this offseason, but finds himself in a loaded 2021 RB class that includes Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, among others.

While the Cowboys close the book on a forgettable 2020 season, optimism abounds in the form of Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb. The talented young players showed their mettle against the 49ers. Both players enjoy a bright dynasty outlook, although Lamb makes for the tougher acquisition. If Ezekiel Elliott sits again in Week 16, Pollard draws a tough matchup against the Eagles in the fantasy finals. Proceed with caution.

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Attacking Recency Bias Part Two: More Undervalued Dynasty Trade Targets

by Tyler Strong, December 22, 2020

Will Fuller led the league in Production Premium in his 11 games played. He was also top-5 in Expected Points Added and Fantasy Points per Target, more evidence of this stellar pairing with Deshaun Watson. Pretty good numbers for a player often pigeon-holed as a pure deep threat in the DeAndre Hopkins era. Fuller’s reinvention into an all-purpose player in 2020 certainly boosted his dynasty market value.

Couple Jameis Winston’s resume of fantasy success with comments this week from Sean Payton that he is “going to have the opportunity to start the minute Drew Brees leaves,” and you’ve got an intriguing buy-low opportunity a-brewing. For the cost of acquiring Winston, and with how long established QBs stick around in this league, he’s worth a speculative offer at the very least.

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Week 15’s Lessons Learned: Jalen Hurts Konami Club Entry

by Tyler Strong, December 21, 2020

Jalen Hurts completed 24 of 44 passes for 338 yards and three scores, also recording 11 carries for 63 yards and another touchdown on the ground in the explosive matchup of Oklahoma QBs. Kyler Murray outdueled him, but Hurts stamped his mark as a franchise player with his furious comeback attempt in a back and forth game. Carson Wentz is a goner.

Bills Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll has been among the best in the league this year, leaning on Josh Allen’s dual strengths and fitting the scheme to the player as opposed to the inverse. Allen is seventh in pass attempts and top-10 in red zone attempts on what was considered a run-heavy team. It’s the ideal plan for a player who gets you net-positive results the more touches he gets, and the Bills are Super Bowl contenders because of it.

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The Infirmary- PlayerProfiler’s Week 15 Injury Report

by The “Mad Chatter” Ryan MK, December 20, 2020

Michael Thomas’ absences aren’t anything new this year. However, to lose him at playoff time when Drew Brees is returning is disheartening. Making matters worse, he appears set for IR, which would take him out for next week’s fantasy championship matches as well. With Marquez Callaway on the reserve himself, fantasy managers should again look to Tre’Quan Smith.

Myles Gaskin appears set to miss another week, which momentarily puts DeAndre Washington once again in the starters seat. Yuck. There is a chance, however, that one of the other Miami backs may return. As for Ronald Jones, he’ll miss Sunday’s game and Leonard Fournette will lead the charge in relief. Rookie Ke’Shawn Vaughn has yet to make a significant impact this season, but this Sunday may be as good a chance as any.

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Weighted Opportunities DFS Value Index – Week 15

by Sean McClure, December 20, 2020

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is eligible for the Value Rating threshold for the first time this season, and already sits at the top of these rankings. So far, he has not shown the massive upside many expected as the lead back on the league’s best offense, but he has been remarkably consistent. At only $6,400 he is a great play in all formats. And in a possible shootout with the Saints, the upside is there as well. Eventually, he will combine a multi-touchdown performance with a high yardage game.

It is possible that Bruce Arians gives the workload to Ke’Shawn Vaughn or another back, but more likely that Leonard Fournette comes back into the fold this week. The Falcons also provide an interesting matchup. If the game turns into a shootout, Fournette should get many high value touches. And if the Buccaneers take a strong lead, he would also get a boost to his ground work. It is hard to trust him in cash, but he is definitely worth playing in GPPs.

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Top-5 Crazy Cut Candidates and Optimal Fantasy Football Destinations

by Joshua Kellem, December 19, 2020

Entering his age-31 season next year, Mark Ingram is likely to be a cap casualty with the Ravens on the hook for just $1.33 million of his $6.33 2021 cap hit. That means they save $5 million releasing him, which makes sense with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in the tuck. With Todd Gurley’s contract set to expire, the Falcons appear to have an opening. Ingram ran for over 1,000 yards in 2019 and might have enough juice for one last squeeze, being that he’s toted the rock just 63 times in 2020.

The Lions would save $14 million releasing Matthew Stafford. Staring down a rebuild, it’s a coin flip if he returns to the team in 2021. With a better-than-appears roster, Stafford’s worth the dart throw in what’s set to be John Elway’s final year under contract as Broncos General Manager. A healthy Broncos team in 2021 is a dark-horse playoff contender.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 15

by Edward DeLauter, December 19, 2020

Last week, Calvin Ridley dispelled the notion that he lacks upside without Julio Jones in the lineup. Without Jones in Week 14, Ridley morphed into the passing game for the Falcons, seeing 12 targets and 209 Air Yards. He took this opportunity and turned it into eight receptions, 124 yards and a touchdown, good for 26.4 fantasy points, the WR3 finish on the week. He is set to face a Buccaneers secondary that has been exploitable in recent weeks.

Michael Gallup garners similar opportunity to both CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. However, last week Gallup led all Cowboys receivers with 81 Air Yards, more than both Lamb and Cooper combined. Despite this opportunity, he was outscored by both in fantasy points. Hopefully, he can avoid Richard Sherman in Week 15 and realize some of those Air Yards. Priced at only $3,500, he doesn’t have to do much to return value.

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Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 15

by Taylor Smith, December 19, 2020

Brandon Aiyuk draws one of the softest possible matchups in the form of Dallas, who has allowed the most receiving touchdowns and the second-most fantasy points to WRs this season. While this matchup has a relatively low 45.5-point total, the Cowboys average 43.2 (No. 1) Team Pass Plays per Game and have the ability to create shootouts. Aiyuk is cheaper on FD relative to the $60,000 salary cap, but the full-PPR and receiving bonus gives him a ridiculous combination of floor and ceiling on DK.

In the games where Emmanuel Sanders has played and Michael Thomas hasn’t, Sanders has averages a solid 14.5 Fantasy Points per Game, including a monster 12-catch, 122-yard performance in Week 5. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest yards to WRs this season, but their cheap salaries make it easy for them to hit value. Most cash lineups will have multiple Saints players this week, so playing both Sanders and Tre’Quan Smith is a viable strategy. 

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Dynasty Market Movers: Week 14 Report

by Steve Smith, December 19, 2020

Todd Gurley’s phone isn’t the only thing falling into the toilet this week. His dynasty stock has also dropped 17.58 Lifetime Value points and five spots, moving outside the Top 30 to RB34 on the dynasty rankings. Recently landing on the injury report with a knee injury and forced to sit out in Week 12, Gurley hasn’t looked close to 100-percent. Here’s to hoping that he can clean it up and get back to scoring touchdowns.

On the season, Jonathan Taylor sits second in rushing yards for rookies behind James Robinson, but his receiving metrics have been equally impressive, if not more. He leads all qualified RBs with 9.2 Yards Per Reception and a 93.9-percent Catch Rate. Taylor is No. 12 at the position and fourth among rookie RBs with 286 receiving yards through Week 14. He gained 9.97 Lifetime Value points to move up four spots to RB4 on the dynasty rankings.

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