Dynasty Market Movers: Week 14 Report

by Steve Smith, December 19, 2020

Todd Gurley’s phone isn’t the only thing falling into the toilet this week. His dynasty stock has also dropped 17.58 Lifetime Value points and five spots, moving outside the Top 30 to RB34 on the dynasty rankings. Recently landing on the injury report with a knee injury and forced to sit out in Week 12, Gurley hasn’t looked close to 100-percent. Here’s to hoping that he can clean it up and get back to scoring touchdowns.

On the season, Jonathan Taylor sits second in rushing yards for rookies behind James Robinson, but his receiving metrics have been equally impressive, if not more. He leads all qualified RBs with 9.2 Yards Per Reception and a 93.9-percent Catch Rate. Taylor is No. 12 at the position and fourth among rookie RBs with 286 receiving yards through Week 14. He gained 9.97 Lifetime Value points to move up four spots to RB4 on the dynasty rankings.

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Upside Wide Receivers For Week 15 GPPs

by Alex Johnson, December 18, 2020

T.Y. Hilton draws a matchup with a Texans team that has been awful in defending the pass all season. This contest is destined to shoot out, with the second-highest over/under on the main slate, providing plenty of room for another ceiling game. Even with his recent surge in performance, Hilton is still just $5,500 on DraftKings. Take advantage.

With Will Fuller suspended and Randall Cobb still out with a toe injury, Keke Coutee will continue to be on the field a lot. For what it’s worth, both of his career 100-yard games have come against the Colts. That includes two weeks ago when he torched Indianapolis for 141 yards on nine targets. This game has the second-highest over/under on the main slate and Coutee is an affordable $5,300 on DraftKings.

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Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 15

by Matthew M. Stevens, December 17, 2020

For all his fantasy scoring fluctuation – his 9.3 Weekly Volatility score ranks No. 15 among qualified wide receivers – Calvin Ridley has posted WR1 numbers in five different weeks this season, including three top-3 finishes. He’s earned a consistently high Target Share, seeing no fewer than nine targets across his past four games. Regardless of Julio Jones’ availability (hamstring), Ridley needs to be fired up.

D.K. Metcalf needs no narrative to smash a slate, and he won’t get one this week. Washington holds opposing receivers to a total of 19.8 Fantasy Points per Game, the third-fewest this season. Metcalf carries the third-highest salary ($8,600) on the main slate, which pushes the masses off him. And when that happens and his projected rostership falls below 10-percent, he deserves to be in GPP lineups.

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Three DFS Quarterback-Wide Receiver Stacks for Week 15

by Taylor Williams, December 17, 2020

Priced almost $1000 less than Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray gives daily fantasy gamers the QB1 upside at a discount relative to the rest of the top tier QBs. That savings can be used to pay up for his top target DeAndre Hopkins, who has faced an incredibly difficult slate of corners over the last few weeks in Stephon Gilmore, Jalen Ramsey, and James Bradberry. Darius Slay isn’t practicing this week, which gives Hopkins even more potential to smash.

Since returning to the lineup in Week 12, Mitchell Trubisky has posted two top 10 fantasy QB performances. Yet DraftKings refuses to price him up, even as they face an average Minnesota Vikings defense in a dome. Allen Robinson’s price is rising, but there is still plenty of upside value left, and pairing him with Trubisky at only $5.5K provides sufficient salary relief to not have to compromise at other positions.

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Analyzing 2020 Rookie Running Backs – The Most Productive Trio

by Corbin Young, December 17, 2020

Throughout the entire season, James Robinson has received the RB1 workload that fantasy managers drool over. His rookie year efficiency has been mind-blowing despite a 73.7 (No. 37 among qualified running backs) Run Blocking Efficiency mark. He checks all of the boxes we look for. Assuming he continues to receive the volume while also maintaining the production and efficiency, he likely ranks as an RB1 in redraft leagues heading into 2021.

Jonathan Taylor’s opportunity and production have trended up over his past three games. During that stretch, he averaged 21.3 total touches and 138 total yards with nine targets and three touchdowns. If he keeps producing to finish off the year, then expect his 2021 ADP to rise or hover in the same range as 2020. With his talent, season-long production, and efficiency, he should rank as a high-end RB2 or back end RB1 heading into 2021.

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Buy High and Sell Low Players After Week 14: Devin Duvernay Rising

by Kyle Dvorchak, December 17, 2020

Jalen Hurts earned his first start in Week 14 and looked like an instant QB1. He is in the upper echelon of all-time athleticism among quarterbacks. In his first start, he rushed 18 times for 106 yards. His rush attempts were the fifth-most for a quarterback since 2000 and his yardage total is top-15 in a single game. He’s the ultimate Konami Code passer and his two matchups to close out the fantasy season are supreme.

Devin Duvernay posted an above-average 32.5-percent (59th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating to go along with his 4.39 (95th-percentile) 40-yard Dash time and 121.9 (53rd-percentile) Burst Score. For teams dealing with injuries in the fantasy semifinals, Duvernay is among the best pickups of the week and is worth a desperation start.

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Free Square DFS Running Backs for Week 15

by Taylor Smith, December 16, 2020

J.K. Dobbins has arguably been the most impressive rookie RB this season. He’s averaged fewer than 10 touches per game, but his efficiency has been off the charts. He boasts a 6.2-percent (No. 6 among qualified RBs) Breakaway Run Rate, highlighting his explosive playmaking ability. While he’s clearly capable of ripping off chunk plays, he also sports a 4.8 (No. 4) True Yards Per Carry mark, meaning he’s consistently churning out solid gains without his Breakaway Runs.

Ronald Jones’ status was already in doubt with a broken pinkie, but he now has landed on the COVID list, meaning he’s set to miss Sunday’s matchup with the Falcons. Leonard Fournette was a healthy scratch last week, but the Buccaneers will have no choice but to feature their offseason acquisition on early downs. Fournette had already built a rapport with Tom Brady on passing downs, averaging 4.1 (No. 18) targets per game, so we could be looking at a three-down RB at just $4500 this week.

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Week 14 Usage Rates: Start Gus Edwards and Drew Lock in Week 15

by Joshua Kellem, December 16, 2020

Mark Ingram has totaled six carries over the past two weeks, including zero last week. Meanwhile, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins have split the backfield carries 24-14 in that span. That’s a 36.8-percent carry share for Edwards on a Ravens team averaging 32.6 (No. 2) Team Run Plays Per Game. We’d love to see his 33.3-percent (No. 64 among qualified running backs) Snap Share expand, but it’s clear he’s likely toting the rock when he’s on the field.

Coming off his best game to date as a pro, Drew Lock rolls into a juicy matchup against Buffalo. As good as the Bills defense has been recently, they’ve allowed five passing touchdowns in their past two outings combined to Nick Mullens and Ben Roethlisberger, respectively. The game’s implied 50-point total sit at the sixth-highest of the week. For his best part, Lock has managed a 6:2 TD:INT ratio in his past two outings, establishing strong synergy with Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler along the way.

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Exploring Week 14’s Top Trending Players Via the Player Popularity Index

by Matthew M. Stevens, December 15, 2020

Chad Hansen, unknown to the masses before last week, remains an intriguing waiver wire target for playoff-eligible teams. Given his consistent usage over the past two games, he looks locked into the tertiary role in Houston’s passing game at the least. He also deserves consideration in deeper dynasty leagues, but faces an uncertain path to a meaningful future role. Keke Coutee’s role is secure with Randall Cobb out, but his Target Share fluctuation makes him harder to trust.

Drops are a concern for any receiver, but they’re amplified for Diontae Johnson given the abundance of talent in the Steelers receiving corps. It’s doubtful he falls out of favor with coach Mike Tomlin, but a bounce back performance in Week 15 would help. He draws a beatable Bengals secondary, so roll him out in the fantasy semis. In Week 10 against Cincinnati, he caught six passes for 116 yards and score, finishing as the WR5.

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Week 14’s Lessons Learned: Jonathan Taylor, Better Late Than Never

by Tyler Strong, December 15, 2020

Jordan Wilkins has seen just two carries over the last two weeks, leaving Nyheim Hines as Jonathan Taylor’s main competition. But a two-man backfield is much more palatable, and with Taylor consistently being the best of the group, his touches should continue to rise. He draws the single best running back matchup next week against the Houston Texans, a team Indy consistently manhandles. It was against the Texans in Week 13 where Taylor broke out, totaling 130 total yards and a score.

The Saints had previously not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 55 games. Both Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders got there on the ground Sunday. Hurts’ read-option abilities helped spring Sanders loose for chunk runs throughout the game, and he finished with 115 yards and two scores on 14 carries. His 82-yard rushing score felt like the first explosive play for the Eagles all season, and his Konami ability makes him a viable QB2 play in the fantasy playoffs.

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