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Typically we stay away from bad teams in props or fantasy, but this week there are only a few strong games to play. In Week 13, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman bring upper 90th-percentile Speed Scores up against a battered Las Vegas Raiders pass defense. Missing star safeties Johnathan Abram, and Lamarcus Joyner, and with both starting cornerbacks riding the injury report each of the last two weeks, expect Mims and Perriman to close in on 200 yards between them.

The Podfather’s Prop of the Week comes from Miami in Week 13, featuring the 2020 NFL Draft’s top two picks from the Dolphins and Bengals. Unfortunately, neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Joe Burrow will play on Sunday. Instead, we will see a battle between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Allen, where The Podfather sees the Dolphins defense putting the clamps on Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. 

D.K. Metcalf makes his first appearance on the Air Yards Value Index after balling out in an island game on Monday night to the tune of 10 receptions for 177 yards. Metcalf saw over 207 Air Yards last week. His ascension in the Seahawks passing game is happening. However, he faces a tough projected matchup in Week 13 against the Giants and James Bradberry. It will be interesting to see if he continues to be fed the rock despite this tough matchup, or if Russell Wilson focuses his attention toward Tyler Lockett.

Darius Slayton’s demise post Sterling Shepard’s return reached the lowest of lows last week. Slayton, despite 63 Air Yards, finished the week with zero fantasy points. With Giants backup quarterback Colt McCoy expected to start, things may not be looking up for Slayton anytime soon despite his Air Yards totals. However, with the Giants likely facing a negative Game Script against the heavily favored Seahawks, he may find himself some garbage time Air Yards and fantasy points.

Antonio Gibson tops all 2020 drafted RBs with a 122.8 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) Speed Score; top 10 overall on PlayerProfiler.com. It’s no surprise that when he handed a larger workload in Week 12, he produced high-end RB1 numbers. The 22-year-old gains 19.79 Lifetime Value points, the most of all RBs, to move from RB14 to RB11 in the dynasty rankings.

In nine games, Matt Breida has 47 carries for 168 yards, averages 3.6 (No. 62) True Yards Per Carry, and has nine catches for 96 yards with no touchdowns. He now finds himself on the reserve/COVID-19 list. It’s unfortunate timing. The Dolphins are shorthanded in the backfield with Washington now sidelined by a hamstring injury. Breida’s stock continues to fall with his ranking dropping from RB65 to RB80 over the past two weeks.

Brandin Cooks has seen 57 targets over the last seven games, averaging six receptions and 83 yards per game over that stretch. This game against the Colts has an over/under of 51.5 points, opening the door for a ceiling game from Cooks. At $5,600, he presents massive upside compared to the guys near his price point.

Michael Pittman will continue to operate as the Colts’ No. 1 wide receiver against a Texans secondary that has allowed the 10th-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. This game is tied for the highest projected point total of the week, so the chances of it shooting out are high. Assuming Pittman gets back to the efficiency we saw prior to Week 12, he will deliver his best performance to date. At $4,900, we can’t pass on that type of upside. 

With the opportunity he’s seen, Justin Jefferson rocks a +43.2 (No. 3 among qualified wide receivers) Production Premium, 12.8 (No. 1) Yards per Target, and 0.57 (No. 6) Fantasy Points per Route Run. Kirk Cousins also ranks highly in the efficiency metrics with a +30.0 (No. 2) Production Premium and 8.6 (No. 2) Yards per Attempt. With the increased passing volume paired with the continued efficiency, it provides reasons for optimism for Jefferson as a locked-in WR2 moving forward.

Jerry Jeudy ranks No. 77 with a -17.8 Production Premium, which makes sense when we consider the opportunities, production, and efficiency. Although he lacks efficiency, his opportunities have trended up over the past five games. Overall, Jeudy’s production moving forward relies on volume moreso than efficiency, and Drew Lock’s inefficiencies negatively impact Jeudy’s productivity.

No stranger to the boom-or-bust life, Adam Thielen has scored two TDs in each of his past two games. He recorded 32.3 fantasy points in Week 12 and 20.2 in Week 11. Prior to that, however, he notched two straight games with five fantasy points. His up-and-down weekly oscillation distils out in the form of a 10.6 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility score. Primed to feast against the Jaguars, Thielen returns to his No. 1 role alongside talented rookie Justin Jefferson.

A volatile fantasy asset with an 8.4 (No. 23) Weekly Volatility mark, Allen finds himself on a hot streak. He’s scored in five consecutive games. Poised for another blowup game, Allen draws a beatable matchup against the Patriots. He faces primary coverage from Patriots cornerback Jonathan Jones, who’s allowed five TDs this season. It’s an exploitable matchup for Allen, who’s rostership projects to be lower than 10-percent.

In spite of averaging 31.1 (No. 29) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and totaling 321 (No. 20 among qualified quarterbacks) Pass Attempts, Kirk Cousins proves to make the most of his opportunity with 23 (No.7) passing touchdowns. As pointed out by Around The NFL’s Gregg Rosenthal, Cousins is demonstrating a Jameis Winston-esque all-or-nothing mentality in 2020, totaling 1,663 (No. 7) Completed Air Yards thus far. Fortunately for fantasy managers starting him, he’s totaled just 11 interceptions as well.

Don’t look now, but Jordan Reed has commanded six targets in consecutive games from Weeks 10 and 12 – after returning from injury Week 9. While he’s a part-time player, typically totaling a 40-percent Snap Share, Reed’s Target Rate sits over 30-percent in the aforementioned games. Last week, he led the 49ers offense with 84 Air Yards, and he has a 19.0-percent (No. 9) Air Yards Share on the season. This week, Reed faces a Bills defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Go trade for Antonio Gibson because he looks like he’ll be a three-down back to close out the year. He ran over twice as many routes on Thanksgiving as J.D. McKissic, who only saw two targets. If Gibson is able to solidify himself as the primary runner and pass-catching back in Washington, he will be a top-five running back in the fantasy playoffs.

The Titans use a committee approach at tight end, and the only thing holding Jonnu Smith back from being Irv Smith this year is touchdown efficiency. The problem is that Tennessee is fine running two tight ends, with the non-Smith tight end being the route-runner. He’s fancy Cameron Brate, and if the touchdowns ever stop flowing, expect to be holding more zeroes than TE1 games.

After the murderer’s row of defenses to start the year, Deshaun Watson has been simply phenomenal. He should be a popular option this week without getting too chalky as players fear that imposing Colts defensive matchup. Instead of throwing darts at the backups with Keke Coutee, Isaiah Coulter, or the tight ends, go with Brandin Cooks. This game will be played in a dome with one of the only 50-plus point totals, and at only $5600, he will be among the cheapest WR1s available on the slate.

At only $5.4K, Mitchell Trubisky draws a matchup against a Lions team with a struggling defense that just fired their coach after getting torched by Deshaun Watson on Thanksgiving. The unquestioned alpha in the offense, Allen Robinson is the most sensible receiver to stack with Trubisky. Put it together and we have a stack featuring a running QB with his target magnet WR1 at discount prices in a dream matchup with low ownership due to brand.

David Montgomery is now at his second-lowest price of the season and has a soft matchup against Detroit. With a 44-point total, this game doesn’t project for many touchdowns. The good news is that the Lions have allowed 21 total touchdowns to RBs this season, easily the most in the NFL. Montgomery is a high-floor RB in a smash spot. When factoring in his price, he looks like one of the best RB values on the slate.

With the Colts being 3.5-point favorites over the Texans this week, Jonathan Taylor is set up for another 20 touches. This game has a 51-point total, which is the third-highest on the slate. The Texans also rank No. 27 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and have allowed the most rushing yards and touchdowns to RBs this season. Taylor has caught at least two balls in all but two games this season, boosting his floor and making him a viable play in cash lineups. This is the eruption spot we’ve been waiting for.