Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 10

by Matthew M. Stevens, November 13, 2020

John Brown ($5,300 DraftKings salary) appears back to full health after dealing with a knee injury that forced him to miss two games and hampered his play when he did suit up. The differential between Brown’s 197 (No. 68 among qualified wide receivers) Completed Air Yards and 310 (No. 25) Unrealized Air Yards means a boom week looms on the horizon with consistent volume.

Brandin Cooks carries the No. 14-ranked Weekly Volatility score, which signals his extremely volatile fantasy scoring nature. In regard to the metric, values over 10.0 are considered very volatile. But he also brings a 30-point ceiling to the table and carries a salary ($5,600) that’s $1,000 cheaper than teammate Will Fuller ($6,700). He’s trending in the right direction post-Bill O’Brien and possesses the ability to produce a slate-breaking performance at low rostership.

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Free Square DFS Running Backs for Week 10

by Taylor Smith, November 12, 2020

In the six games Mike Davis filled in for Christian McCaffrey earlier this season, he averaged 17.3 fantasy points and finished as an RB1 three times. Davis boasts a 38.5 percent (No. 2 among qualified running backs) Juke Rate with 49 (No. 4) Evaded Tackles on his 128 touches. His elite receiving role, ability to create on his own and minimum salary makes him a lock in cash games.

D’Andre Swift broke the slate in Week 6 (30.3 DK points) with multiple Breakaway Runs and touchdowns, so we know it’s in his range of outcomes. Despite this, he will check in with minuscule Week 10 ownership. Most casual DFS gamers will also see the Washington defense and shy away from him. His snaps and opportunities are all trending in the right direction and we’ve already seen his explosiveness this season.

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Three DFS Quarterback-Wide Receiver Stacks for Week 10

by Taylor Williams, November 11, 2020

Sifting through the high-end stacking options this week, there is one that may get lost based on matchup. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks face the intimidating Los Angeles Rams defense. In a game with the second highest projected total, ignore the difficult on-paper defensive matchup and get exposure to massive upside at what’s expected to be unusually low ownership from the Seahawks offense.

With projected negative Game Script and a healthy set of receivers, Drew Lock should see enough volume to make him a viable play at $5.5K on DraftKings. Jerry Jeudy has arrived. It took some time as a rookie, but he is now commanding an alpha-level Target Share and alpha-level Air Yards. He’s delivering on that opportunity as well. Yet DraftKings seems to think it’s still Week 7 by pricing him at $5.6K. Capitalize while you can.

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Buy High and Sell Low Players After Week 9: Jamison Crowder Fake Alpha

by Kyle Dvorchak, November 10, 2020

The only reason Mike Williams doesn’t have more WR1 weeks is fluky touchdown production from Los Angeles role players. Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, and Williams make up 61.9-percent of the LA targets, but only 47.1-percent of the touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Chargers have five players with touchdown rates over 15-percent, only one of whom even has double-digit targets. As long as Justin Herbert keeps throwing dimes, Williams will have more spike weeks in the near future. 

Jamison Crowder entered Week 9 with a 31.5-percent (No. 2 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share, but his competition for targets was nonexistent. With Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims back in action, Crowder now has more than just practice squad players alongside him at receiver, and his Target Share will take a massive hit in future contests. Still playing on the Jets, a diminished Target Share may be the end of WR1 and WR2 Crowder as we know him.

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Exploring Week 9’s Top Trending Players Via the Player Popularity Index

by Matthew M. Stevens, November 10, 2020

PlayerProfiler was built for guys like Kirk Merritt. What jumps off the page when visiting Merritt’s player profile? His workout metrics. Aside from an 11.17 (56th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Agility Score, the undrafted receiver from Arkansas State boasts elite scores in all of his workout metrics. His elevation from the Dolphins practice squad and subsequent activation for the game earned him the top PPI ranking for Week 9.

Jake Luton offers an upside waiver wire pickup in 2QB/superflex season-long leagues, or a streaming option in traditional formats. Coming off his strong first start, dynasty gamers should look to sell high. His weak prospect profile, underwhelming workout metrics and low draft capital diminish his chances for long-term success. And unless he exceeds expectations and turns this offense around, the Jaguars (1-7) would be remiss not to take a quarterback with one of their two 2021 first-round picks.

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Week 9 Lessons Learned: Quarterback Torch Pass

by Tyler Strong, November 10, 2020

Two of the league’s most exciting prospects faced off on Sunday for a 34-31 thriller, where Tua Tagovailoa pulled out the win over Kyler Murray. Tagovailoa also chipped in 35 yards on the ground, a little taste of the Konami Code upside he brings to the table. Justin Herbert has been putting crazy point totals on the board, and while the Miami defense has been strong, Tua should be a sneaky GPP option in a favorable game environment against the Chargers.

The San Francisco receiving group is in flux, especially with George Kittle and his massive target volume out of the picture for the rest of the season. Kyle Shanahan has the common sense to play his better players, but will he pull the trigger? Richie James is the stone minimum on DraftKings against New Orleans in Week 10.

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Duke Johnson and Other Week 10 Waiver Wire Targets

by Ray Marzarella, November 10, 2020

Duke Johnson is the latest example of why we should be stashing backup running backs this late in the season, especially those who project to be bell cows in the event of an injury to the starter. The fantasy community has waited years for him to have the opportunity he’s been presented for Week 10. With David Johnson yet to be cleared from his Week 9 concussion, Duke is looking at an every-down role in a narrative-soaked revenge game against his former team. You know what to do.

Since returning from a knee injury that cost him Week 6, Curtis Samuel has scored in three straight games and logged two 20-plus-point performances. He’s finally happening. He has seen his recent floor bolstered by carries and rushing touchdowns, and now Christian McCaffrey is in danger of missing this week’s contest. His dynamism will make him an enticing, high-ceiling Flex play down the fantasy stretch.

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The Infirmary- PlayerProfiler’s Week 9 Injury Report

by The “Mad Chatter” Ryan MK, November 8, 2020

Kenyan Drake’s absence in Arizona can only mean one thing; get ready for a Chase Edmonds Dance Party! The third-year back is already enjoying a solid 2020 in his minimal role. Most impressive, he ranks No. 4 among qualified running backs with 222 receiving yards, No. 7 with 26 receptions and No. 9 with a 13.6-percent Target Share. Add in a full workload on the ground against Miami’s average run defense and it adds up to a big day for Mr. Edmonds.

With Myles Gaskin on IR, Matt Breida becomes the back to roster in Miami. Unfortunately for Breida, he is currently dealing with an injury of his own and will miss Week 9. That leaves Jordan Howard and Patrick Laird. YUCK! Avoid, avoid, avoid. Please. And go trade for Breida. Like NOW. Though Gaskin isn’t expected to miss more than a few weeks, the Week 9 Laird/Howard combo will leave the Fins clamoring for Breida’s return.

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Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 9

by Taylor Smith, November 7, 2020

Given how Hayden Hurst has already seen four (No. 7 among qualified tight ends) Deep Targets and 412 (No. 3) Air Yards, we can expect him to pick up a few of each from Calvin Ridley, who leads the NFL in both categories. The game environment isn’t ideal. The Broncos rank No. 10 in Defensive Passing DVOA, but the Falcons defense is so bad that this game can easily shootout. Hurst projects for plenty of targets, both deep and in the red zone. He should be a cash lineup lock at his price.

Those who want to afford Dalvin Cook and Chase Edmonds in their cash lineups will likely need to pay down at one RB spot. Justin Jackson is the best pay-down option after he took command of the Los Angeles backfield last week. The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites at home against the Raiders. This game also has the third-highest total on the slate at 51.5 points. Sharp DFS gamers will want to play the RB that’s favored at home with a high total.

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NFL Monkey Knife Fight Props: Week 9

by Cody Carpentier, November 7, 2020

In Week 9, Christian McCaffrey is back for Carolina, and that means it’s time to dabble back in the Touchdown Dance. He returns for the first time since Week 2, coming off of back-to-back two-score games. In Week 9, he draws a Kansas City Chiefs defense that ranks No. 29 against the run.

Michael Thomas returns for the first time since Week 1, when he finished with a 3-17 stat line against Carlton Davis. In Week 9, Thomas draw Davis’ coverage again while coming off ankle and hamstring injuries. He’s likely to be a decoy in Tampa, aligning for an Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook-focused game.

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