NFL Monkey Knife Fight Props: Week 7

by Cody Carpentier, October 24, 2020

Michael Thomas is out again in Week 7, this time with a hamstring injury. Carolina has given up 47 receptions to running backs through six weeks, a 7.8 per-game average and last in the league. With Thomas out over the last month, Alvin Kamara is the target and receptions leader in New Orleans by over 10. With three games over eight receptions, expect the Saints superstar to feast again.

Tampa has arguably the best cornerback duo in the NFL, and the Raiders’ best weapon that isn’t exclusively a deep threat is Darren Waller, who is coming off a much-needed bye week to recover from knee soreness. Expect the Raiders to lean on Waller, who has five-plus receptions in four of five games and leads Las Vegas in targets, receptions, and yards.

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Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target: Fantasy Football Week 7

by Aaron Stewart, October 24, 2020

Despite an in-season coaching change, Calvin Ridley’s role in Atlanta’s offense remained unchanged. He ran 38 routes last week, which was the second-most he has run in a game this season, and finished as WR10 despite teammate Julio Jones receiving more targets and finishing as WR2 on the week. Jeff Okudah is the equivalent of an open door to wide receivers he covers. On the season, he has allowed 294 receiving yards on 138 Routes Defended.

Matt Rhule, the former Temple coach, has unlocked his former Temple player Robby Anderson, who has excelled in his high-volume role this season. Wide receivers have had their way against Patrick Robinson in his two games with New Orleans. Last week, he struggled to contain Jalen Guyton and his 4.44 (83rd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-Yard Dash speed. Good luck stopping Anderson and his 4.41 (91st-percentile) 40-Yard Dash speed.

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 7

by Edward DeLauter, October 24, 2020

Despite a pretty solid game against James Bradberry and the Giants, DraftKings added only $100 to Terry McLaurin’s salary. He remains modestly priced heading into a matchup against a terrible Cowboys defense. McLaurin is the only wide receiver of relevance in Washington’s passing game, amassing a 44.2-percent (No. 2 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share. While he has yet to convert this opportunity into consistent WR1 production, he is set to explode in Week 7.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the clear number two option in the Packers passing game behind Davante Adams. However, he has seen more Air Yards in the two full games the receivers have played together thus far this season. With an 18.9 (No. 2) Average Target Distance mark and 12 (No. 5) Deep Targets, Valdes-Scantling is the go-to receiver for the bulk of Aaron Rodgers’ downfield bombs. He is bound to find the ball in his hands at some point, and he will win someone a GPP when he does.

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Weighted Opportunities DFS Value Index – Week 7

by Sean McClure, October 24, 2020

Nothing James Robinson has done should have those playing him concerned. He is the team’s primary back and takes the majority of the receiving and goal line work. He has already shown that he can provide boom weeks when everything falls into place. Robinson should be in consideration every week as long as he is priced below the league’s other featured backs.

The Buffalo offense has looked much more stoppable against the Chiefs and Titans over the last two weeks. If they can return to their early season form, Devin Singletary will be a smash value. An easy matchup against a Jets team that barely plays football is exactly what they need. Singletary is in a great spot to return value in cash at only $6,200.

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Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 7

by Taylor Smith, October 24, 2020

Not only has Marquez Valdes-Scantling broken a 90.0-percent Snap Share in three straight weeks, he has a 38.3-percent (No. 7 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share and has drawn 12 (No. 5) Deep Targets. This matchup with the Texans has the highest total on the slate at 57.0, and the Packers have the highest implied team total at 30.25. Gaining cheap exposure to this game is an easy strategy in DFS, and MVS checks all the boxes.

The Titans have been beatable through the air, ranking No. 24 in Defensive Passing DVOA. They have also been incredibly efficient on offense, ranking No. 3 in Offensive DVOA. The Steelers offense hasn’t been pushed much given their elite defense, but this Titans offense is equipped to turn this game into a shootout. That would be massive for this passing attack and for Diontae Johnson’s DFS upside.

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Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 7

by Matthew M. Stevens, October 23, 2020

Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s Weekly Volatility score of 6.6 creeps toward volatile fantasy scoring oscillation, but he’s suffered through more bust weeks than boom weeks. Following a top-12 fantasy finish at the position in Week 1 with 19.6 points, he’s failed to reach 10 fantasy points in a game. However, signs of a looming MVS breakout game abound. In addition, his price point on DraftKings ($4,100) offers roster construction flexibility at low projected rostership.

Coming off a two TD performance and his best fantasy outing of the season (27.9 points) Mike Williams’ salary ($4,700) doesn’t match his upside. A poster boy for Weekly Volatility, his 11.7 rating ranks No. 8 and shows maximum fluctuation in fantasy scoring. In four games this season, he’s busted twice and boomed once. With Justin Herbert’s willingness to chuck it, the duo figures to log more dynamic showings. Why not against the Jaguars?

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Buy High and Sell Low Players After Week 6: Joe Mixon, Bellcow Buy

by Kyle Dvorchak, October 23, 2020

Mixon is a true bellcow back in a league that has few. He had no scores and three targets per game through three weeks. Giovani Bernard was seeing more opportunities in the passing game and it looked like Mixon would be relegated to a grinder role once again. In the following three weeks, Mixon has scored four times and been targeted 17 times. He’s top-10 in running back targets over that span.

T.Y. Hilton’s inefficiency is brutal and it’s only compounded by his lack volume. Both his Target Share and Air Yards Share rank outside the top-30 receivers. He was out-targeted by Marcus Johnson and Zach Pascal last week. Hilton is on bye this week, so it might be worth waiting to sell low because his market will get a slight bump once he’s back in action. Look to move him for anyone with a pulse including Travis Fulgham, Preston Williams, and Randall Cobb.

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Free Square DFS Running Backs for Week 7

by Taylor Smith, October 22, 2020

With a clear lead on Joshua Kelley and three-down ability, Justin Jackson sets up well against the Jaguars this week. They have allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs and the fourth-most rushing yards, while being tied for the most touchdowns allowed with nine. With a 28.25 implied team total, Jackson has massive touchdown equity in this game. If the Jaguars are able to push the ball downfield and score like they were earlier in this season, this matchup has major shootout potential.

In the prior two games that Raheem Mostert missed, Jerick McKinnon averaged 19 touches for 87 scrimmage yards and scored in both. His efficiency from earlier this season has cooled off a bit, but that was expected on the increased volume. He shouldn’t catch much ownership this week. People may be concerned about JaMycal Hasty and a “bad” matchup with the Patriots, but that makes him a solid tournament option.

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Upside Wide Receivers For Week 7 GPPs

by Alex Johnson, October 22, 2020

The Week 7 matchup with Seattle makes for the perfect setting for a volatile playmaker like Christian Kirk to go off. The Cardinals are 3.5-point underdogs in a game with a 55.5 point total over/under. The Seahawks have allowed 64.2 Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers this season. The next closest team is the Vikings at 49.3. Despite all this, Kirk is priced at $4,900 on DraftKings this week. Get him in lineups.

While he has struggled to match last season’s breakout numbers to this point, D.J. Chark’s usage is encouraging and will lead to more production going forward. Jacksonville, who averages 43.0 (No. 4) Team Pass Plays per Game, are a 7.5-point underdog against the Chargers this week. Los Angeles ranks in the bottom half of the league in Fantasy Points per Game allowed to wide receivers. This may be the week we see a big Chark performance and he’s only priced at $5,500.

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Decoding Split Backfields – Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams

by Corbin Young, October 22, 2020

Through five weeks, Kenyan Drake averages 13.3 (No. 24 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game and is currently underperforming based on expectations and ADP. Last week helped since he reached a season-high 28.4 (No. 2) fantasy points after scoring a 69-yard rushing touchdown to salt away the game. On the flip side, Chase Edmonds averages 10.4 (No. 34) Fantasy Points per Game and is closing in on Drake’s fantasy point totals with much fewer opportunities. 

We might as well let our pet turtle decide on which Rams running back to start because logic doesn’t appear to apply much here. The Rams average 31.3 (No. 6) Team Run Plays per Game, and typically that’s a positive note for running backs. However, when they split up these plays between three running backs in Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers, it messes things up for fantasy football purposes. 

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