Top-5 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Buys Heading Into Week 4

by Corbin Young, October 2, 2020

D.J. Moore has drawn 26 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) targets, a 25.5-percent (No. 11) Target Share, 358 (No. 5) Air Yards, and a 48.0-percent (No. 3) Air Yards Share. However, with 14 (No. 24) receptions for 239 (No. 14) receiving yards and zero (No. 67) touchdowns, he’s averaged a mere 12.6 (No. 34) Fantasy Points per Game. All of those advanced metrics not aligning with the fantasy production screams Buy, Buy, Buy (and we don’t mean the NSYNC song).

The most concerning stat for Michael Gallup is the lowly 13.6-percent (No. 73) Target Share. However, Dak Prescott targets him deep, evidenced by a 17.0 (No. 9) Average Target Distance mark and 22.4 (No. 3) Yards per Reception. If the Target Share increases, then Gallup should improve his fantasy production. Since he’s only averaged 13.9 (No. 27) Fantasy Points per Game to this point, fantasy gamers should trade for him now before he has another outing like last week’s 25.8-point (WR7) performance. 

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Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 4

by Matthew M. Stevens, October 2, 2020

Six of Marquise Brown’s 18 targets have registered as Deep Targets, which ranks No. 7 among qualified wide receivers. Lamar Jackson has targeted him on six of his nine (No. 17) Deep Ball Attempts. Brown has also earned a 35.1-percent (No. 12) Air Yards Share. He’s seeing the downfield looks and there is still more meat on the bone, evidenced by his 125 (No. 28) Completed Air Yards and 114 (No. 25) Unrealized Air Yards. This dynamic duo looks primed to hook up on a few signature plays.

A.J. Green ranks No. 2 with 386 Air Yards and No. 1 with 283 Unrealized Air Yards, and has drawn seven (No. 4) Deep Targets. His low projected rostership on the main slate makes him a mouth-watering play, and he’s in a much better spot matchup-wise this week, too. Green will continue to see a high volume of targets and find his footing working against rookie C.J. Henderson. This week, he oozes with the potential to eclipse 100 receiving yards and end his touchdown drought.

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Free Square DFS Running Backs for Week 4

by Taylor Smith, October 1, 2020

Has there ever been an RB with a 96.0-percent (No. 1 among qualified running backs) Snap Share that is under $6000? Well, we have that this week in David Johnson. In Duke Johnson’s absence, he has captured an 85.2-percent (No. 3) Opportunity Share. He is also leading the position in Route Participation, running a route on 95.8-percent of Houston’s pass plays. The stars are aligning for Johnson to have a breakout game in Week 4 against the Vikings, and $5600 isn’t much to spend to be a part of it.

If you need to go way down for some salary savings, Myles Gaskin is the best option. After hitting double-digit fantasy points in every game without even scoring a touchdown, he is a high-floor fantasy option in this spot. If he can find the end zone at least once against Seattle, which seems likely given Miami’s 24-point implied team total, Gaskin can be a tournament-winning leverage play against the chalky pass-catchers in this game.

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Buy High and Sell Low Players After Week 3: Brandon Aiyuk is Here to Stay

by Kyle Dvorchak, October 1, 2020

Brandon Aiyuk’s profile coming out of Arizona State was impressive. He posted a 40.6-percent (82nd-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating and contributed on special teams in both of his collegiate seasons at the FBS level. His history of production and early NFL success points to a bright rookie season that is worth paying a premium for.

Per the Data Analysis Tool, Nick Chubb’s 7.4-percent touchdown rate ranks No. 6 among backs with more than 20 carries. If one of the most random stats in fantasy football doesn’t break his way on most weeks, Chubb will end the season as a middling RB2. Look to move him for backs seeing more volume in the passing game who haven’t been able to find the end zone as much such as Kenyan Drake or Joe Mixon.

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Four DFS Quarterback-Wide Receiver Stacks for Week 4

by Taylor Williams, October 1, 2020

With a middling projected point total, and given the Colts defensive scoring stats so far, many DFS gamers may be scared off this Colts-Bears matchup. However, those defensive stats came against the Jaguars, Vikings, and Jets. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Given the expected volume and increased efficiency in the Chicago passing game, paired with the favorable CB matchup, a Nick Foles-Allen Robinson stack provides tantalizing upside with low ownership.

In what should be a high scoring affair, target Cam Newton (priced at QB10) and both of his leading receivers against the Chiefs for maximum upside. N’Keal Harry and Julian Edelman have combined for over 50-percent of the Patriots Target Share, which increases to almost 60-percent of the red zone targets. That red zone activity combined with Newton’s goal line rushing ability gives this stack a monopoly on Patriots touchdowns.

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Dynasty Market Movers: Week 3 Report

by Steve Smith, October 1, 2020

The future of the Rams backfield remains somewhat murky. Veteran Malcolm Brown is still involved and Cam Akers will eventually return from injury. Even if Akers is able to shed his day-to-day tag, all indications suggest that Darrell Henderson has earned a Week 4 starting role. Whether or not the team returns to a committee approach, Henderson has flashed and shown that he can produce at the pro level. His dynasty stock has risen as a result.

At 6-2, 216-pounds, Gabriel Davis provides the Bills offense with a different element at receiver – size. The UCF alumi’s prospect profile is good, with a 34.4-percent (65th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating, 103.1 (77th-percentile) Speed Score and 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. If Brown misses extended time, this may be the last opportunity to acquire Davis at value.

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Metric of the Week: Using Weighted Opportunities to Value Running Backs

by Matthew M. Stevens, September 29, 2020

Myles Gaskin’s player profile doesn’t scream elite talent, but he’s seeing the most meaningful touches in Miami’s backfield and making the most of them. He has see 47.9 (No. 8 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities through three games, and while he hasn’t produced a breakout game, one is on the horizon. Gaskin has caught 15 of 16 targets, good for a 93.8-percent (No. 6) Catch Rate. He also hasn’t found the end zone yet, which will change soon given the weight of his touches.

On the other end of the spectrum, Mark Ingram’s slow start can be traced back to his unimpressive 21.9 (No. 45) Weighted Opportunities. While has seen six (No. 35) Red Zone Touches through the first three weeks, none came from inside the 5-yard line and they resulted in only one (No. 29) touchdown. He’s also drawn only four (No. 54) targets. This much is clear: Ingram no longer possesses workhorse back upside, and should not be viewed as anything more than a middling RB3.

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Brandon Aiyuk and Other Week 4 Waiver Wire Targets

by The Podfather, September 29, 2020

Brandon Aiyuk is less widely rostered than Justin Jefferson but unlikely to be available in deep leagues. He is a stronger add than Jefferson and Tee Higgins this week, because he would likely operate as the 49ers’ No. 1 wide receiver until Deebo Samuel is 100-percent back online.

Travis Homer is a more versatile and explosive back than Carlos Hyde and received the first backfield snap in a clutch situation after Chris Carson went down on a dirty play at the end of Seattle’s epic Week 3 win. Like Myles Gaskin last week, Homer is this week’s signature darkhorse free agent fantasy running back and a high priority add. Because he did not pop in the score, he can be added for a small percentage of most FAAB budgets.

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Week 3 Lessons Learned: Kamara and Hopkins, Clubhouse Leaders

by Tyler Strong, September 28, 2020

Alvin Kamara’s monster usage and raw talent has lifted him above every other player in fantasy football through the season’s first three weeks. The Saints have fed him as much as he can handle with Drew Brees’ arm shot and the offense already missing their only true playmaker on the outside in Michael Thomas. He’s Christian McCaffrey in a better offense, and at a reduced cost. A Week 4 contest against the Lions is a lock button spot for fantasy’s most involved running back.

Kyler Murray is locked onto DeAndre Hopkins, targeting him heavily on the outside in both short-yardage situations and downfield. Hopkins faces the defensively challenged Carolina Panthers next week, who surrendered 330 passing yards to Justin Herbert in his second ever NFL start. Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler destroyed the Panthers in the middle of the field. Deploying Hopkins in the slot would be a successful operation. With unmatched usage, he is a premier pay-up candidate in DFS.

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Going Long – Identifying the Best Spot Starts for Week 3

by Ikey Azar, September 27, 2020

Through two favorable matchups Mitchell Trubisky currently ranks No. 15 among qualified quarterbacks in Fantasy Points per Game, just outside QB1 territory. He’s recorded 14 (No. 6) Red Zone Attempts, eight (No. 9) in Deep Ball Attempts, and 8.7 (No. 10) Air Yards per Attempt. Through two weeks, the Atlanta Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

Joe Burrow leads the NFL with 97 passing attempts and Bengals tight ends have drawn a 21.6-percent Target Share. With C.J. Uzomah out for the rest of the regular season, Drew Sample walks into a prime opportunity to soak up most, if not all, of that target share. Remember, this Bengals regime spent a second round pick on Sample in last year’s draft. Through two games, the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

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