The Infirmary- Week 3 Injury Report

by The “Mad Chatter” Ryan MK, September 27, 2020

Kenny Golladay and Julio Jones are tricky this week. The Detroit offense badly needs a playmaker, but in a late-afternoon game it’s difficult to stay hopeful for this game-time decision. Let Golladay ride the pine another week. As for Jones, this isn’t unfamiliar territory for those who roster the Falcons star receiver. It’s a much tougher sit if he does play, but the fear of a donut is a strong motivator. Oh, and play Russell Gage with confidence, if you weren’t already.

The top wideouts to miss this week will be Michael Thomas and A.J. Brown. For New Orleans, Thomas’ injury is clearly devastating to the offense and the aging Drew Brees. Tre’Quan Smith is still a great play, but expect the team to rely heavily on Alvin Kamara. As for Brown, the Titans will be fine this week without him. Derrick Henry will lead the way against a banged up Vikings defense while Jonnu Smith and Adam Humphries (that’s right, no Corey Davis fawning here) handle receiving duties.

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Tomorrow’s Newspaper: Bryan Edwards and Waiver Wire Prescience for Week 3

by Ray Marzarella, September 27, 2020

A bet on Bryan Edwards is a bet on one of the highest ranking prospects in this year’s rookie class via the Breakout Finder. A player with the second-highest Breakout Age in the entire database and a 48.4-percent (94th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating against SEC competition. If he puts up a usable fantasy performance while facing Stephon Gilmore’s coverage, we will unequivocally know that he’s for real.

With Jerry Jeudy a game-time decision for Denver’s Week 3 contest against the Bucs, it’s time to stash K.J. Hamler, who tied Jeudy for the team lead with seven targets last week. Having Jeff Driskel under center lowers his ceiling for now, but Courtland Sutton being unavailable for the rest of the year raises his rest-of-season floor, and Drew Lock’s eventual return will raise the sky-high ceiling back up. He also draws the Jets in Week 4, if exploiting winnable matchups is something you’re interested in.

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Top DFS Flex Value Plays for Week 3

by Taylor Smith, September 26, 2020

With Sterling Shepard landing on IR, Darius Slayton is the clear alpha receiver in the Giants offense. He already showed what he can do with that role in Week 1, where he rang up 102 yards and two touchdowns on an elite Pittsburgh secondary. He is an underpriced smash play against this banged-up 49ers defense. Expect double-digit targets given New York’s offensive injuries in this soft matchup. He should be a high-floor, high-ceiling lock in cash lineups this week.

The real way to attack the Rams is on the ground. They rank No. 27 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and have allowed Miles Sanders and Ezekiel Elliott to rack up 258 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in two weeks. Devin Singletary has shown a solid receiving floor with 10 (No. 6 among qualified running backs) targets through two weeks, so we can project him for workhorse touches with no Zack Moss and a soft matchup. At $4900 on DK, he’s a solid cash game option.

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Metric of the Week: Using Route Participation to Identify Week 3 TE Starts

by Akash Bhatia, September 26, 2020

Mark Andrews ranked No. 23 among qualified tight ends in Route Participation with a 55.1-percent rate last year. Through 2 weeks in the post-Hayden Hurst era, that rate has jumped to 82.0-percent (No. 9). If he carries over anything close to his efficiency from last year, Andrews will smash in this new role. You’re obviously starting him if you have him, and he is an easy buy-high candidate.

We expected a big season from T.J. Hockenson this year, but the Lions have surprisingly only unleashed him for a route on 70.7-percent (No. 19) of their passing attempts in 2020. Having caught 100-percent of his targets through two games, he might be a sell-high candidate if the low Route Participation number fails to creep up.

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NFL Monkey Knife Fight Props: Week 3

by Cody Carpentier, September 26, 2020

Gone are the days of Derrick Henry starting the season slow. Through the first two weeks, Henry has recorded 59 touches, with 200 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. For the first time in his career, the Titans are 2-0, reeling with injuries at wide receiver and cornerback. Jonnu Smith, through two weeks, has already tied a career-high with three touchdowns. Smith has run 19.4-percent of snaps out of the slot, one of Minnesota’s weakest positions.

The Podfather will hammer the FOX Game of the Week in the afternoon slate. Ezekiel Elliott averages 22 rushing attempts per game and has scored three (No. 4) touchdowns while averaging 4.2 (No. 27) True Yards per Carry. When Dallas gets in the red zone, it’s either Zeke or Dak Prescott getting the touches against a Seattle defense that gave up two rushing touchdowns in Week 2. 

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Air Yards DFS Value Index – Week 3

by Edward DeLauter, September 25, 2020

A.J. Green enters Week 3 of his age-32 season leading the league in Air Yards. Unfortunately, the veteran wide receiver has translated this opportunity to only 8.0 (No. 69 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game. Leading the league in Unrealized Air Yards and ranking No. 1 on this week’s Air Yards Value model, the former Pro Bowler is at a inflection point. Is he still one of the game’s top wide receivers or is he a sell low candidate?

A devastating season-ending injury to Saquon Barkley may result in the Giants airing it out a bit more in the passing game. If they do, Darius Slayton is the clear beneficiary. He continues to lead the Giants in Air Yards and has remained efficient with his opportunities, posting a +29.3 (No. 17) Production Premium, with only 44 Unrealized Air Yards. Still priced below $5,000, Slayton will look to continue his excellent efficiency against a banged up 49ers defense.

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Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 3

by Matthew M. Stevens, September 25, 2020

Cooper Kupp is affordable with a projected rostership low enough to take down a GPP if he pops facing off against good, but beatable Buffalo coverage. He boasts a 30-point fantasy ceiling and should garner a higher Target Share while Robert Woods squares off against Tre’Davious White. Get exposure to this week to Kupp, who packs tournament-winning upside. He also makes for a solid stack with Jared Goff.

Having Jeff Driskel under center is keeping Jerry Jeudy’s roster percentage down, but the QB is not afraid to sling it. He averaged 9.0 (78th-percentile) yards per attempt in college and registered 12 Deep Ball Attempts in only three games last season. Jeudy’s status needs to monitored due to a rib injury that kept him limited in practice, but it does not appear to be serious. A big-time playmaker at Alabama, his NFL coronation is coming sooner than later.

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Free Square DFS Running Backs for Week 3

by Taylor Smith, September 25, 2020

The Jets have certainly been strong against the run, ranking No. 6 in Defensive Rushing DVOA, but David Montgomery just racked up 127 total yards against this team at 6.7 yards per touch. Jerick McKinnon’s explosiveness in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme should afford premium opportunities for fantasy points. Plus, he’s explosive catching the ball, which will be massive given the 49ers injuries at skill positions. McKinnon looks like a league-winning RB and a week-winning DFS free square.

It didn’t take long for Antonio Gibson to take over the Washington backfield. In Week 2, he received more carries and targets than J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber combined. It should have been this way all along given Gibson’s athletic profile. The man is 6-0, 228-pounds, and runs a 4.39 (98th-percentile) 40-yard dash. He has yet to get to the second level against strong Philadelphia and Arizona fronts, but we’ll see the fireworks soon enough.

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Week 2 Usage Rates For Fantasy Football: Dalton Schultz Is Legit, Christian Kirk is Ready to Smash

by Joshua Kellem, September 25, 2020

Christian Kirk is due for a smash week. He has a healthy 35.3-percent (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share with 132 (No. 9) Unrealized Air Yards. Basically, he’s seeing deep looks but he and Kyler Murray have failed to connect on many thus far. If not Week 3 because of injury, Kirk will have a smash game soon. Murray ranks No. 8 with nine Deep Ball Attempts but just No. 28 with a 22.2-percent Deep Ball Completion Percentage. This will change.

Through two games, the Colts have averaged 37.0 (No. 16) Team Pass Play Per Game. Mo Alie-Cox has a 23.5-percent (No. 24) Target Rate, indicating he may be a focal point of the gameplan against the Jets early on before Game Script comes into play. Through two weeks, his eight targets rank No. 3 among active Colts pass-catchers. In addition, his 11.3-percent (No. 24) Target Share ranks No. 2, while his Target Rate ranks No. 1. Basically, he isn’t running empty routes.

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Dynasty Market Movers: Week 2 Report

by Steve Smith, September 24, 2020

The Eagles are winless and Carson Wentz has had a forgettable the start to the season, averaging 12.7 (No. 27 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points per Game. Philadelphia’s signal-caller is throwing the ball at an average of 42.5 times per game and has 512 (No. 18) passing yards, however his efficiency metrics are concerning. If these downward trends continue into Week 3 versus the Bengals defense, the alarm bells might be at full volume.

Ben Roethlisberger looks to have found a new favorite target in Diontae Johnson. Despite ball security issues to start each of his first two games, Big Ben has not shied away from targeting the sophomore receiver. Interestingly, Roethlisberger mentioned in an interview earlier this week that his trust and confidence in Johnson was still growing. If this connection still has room to grow, it may not be long before Johnson’s dynasty stock truly skyrockets.

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