Week 1 Usage Rates: Thursday Night Football Edition

by Joshua Kellem, September 12, 2020

Will Fuller just needs to stay healthy and he will easily put up career marks in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He has played in 14 or more games in a season just once, though he is healthy for now. With his injury history baked into his WR31 ADP, he will pay that off even if he misses time, provided his Week 1 Target Share holds up. The upside with Fuller relative to his ADP is that if he stays healthy, he’s contending for a top-12 finish at his position in fantasy football.

Sammy Watkins again came in hot in Week 1, pacing the Chiefs pass-catchers with nine targets. This is a mirage. However, if Watkins stacks a few more of these games together, we’re looking at potential Flex appeal. In the offseason, it was reported that Watkins held off Mecole Hardman for the No. 2 receiver job. After one week, it’s impossible to confirm this, but monitor him closely in the coming weeks for signs of a usage pattern.

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Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 1

by Matthew M. Stevens, September 11, 2020

Fantasy gamers should forget about DeSean Jackson and instead consider the oft-neglected Marvin Jones at home against the Bears for $5,500. With a 10.8 Weekly Volatility mark last season, Jones ranked No. 6 among receivers with at least 40 catches. Kenny Golladay earned a 21.1-percent (No. 33 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share in 2019, while Jones posted a 20.2-percent (No. 39) mark. If Golladay fails to suit up, Jones’ ownership percentage may creep into unplayable territory, so it’s a situation to monitor.

Henr Ruggs projects to carry a high degree of Weekly Volatility this season, to be sure. Dial him up against the Panthers in his first NFL game action before the masses become infatuated with him. He oozes with upside and the Raiders will move him all over the field and design plays to get him the ball in space. That’s why he will find the end zone in his first NFL game. The price is right on DraftKings ($5,100) and he doesn’t figure to garner huge ownership.

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Upside Wide Receivers For Week 1 GPPs

by Alex Johnson, September 11, 2020

We can naturally anticipate a more pass-friendly offense from the Ravens in 2020, which will only bode well for the man they call Hollywood. With no serious competition for targets outside of Mark Andrews, Marquie Brown is in line for a significant share of the passing offense. Priced at $5,200 (WR32) on DraftKings, Hollywood is a great play vs a vulnerable Browns secondary.

For the second-straight season, Terry McLaurin will see the Eagles on opening day. He torched them for 255 yards and two touchdowns in two games last year. He’s slightly underpriced as the WR25 on the slate on DraftKings but has clear top-10 upside for the week with a safe floor and high ceiling.

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Top DFS Flex Play Values for Week 1

by Taylor Smith, September 11, 2020

Both Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffery are trending in the wrong direction for Week 1 with their respective shoulder injuries. Even if both suited up, DeSean Jackson is set to be the dynamic element to this passing attack while the tight ends dominate the intermediate range. Rostering Jackson offers a massive ceiling and a solid floor as well.

Now that Tyrell Williams is done with a shoulder injury, Bryan Edwards has earned the starting gig as the “X” receiver in Las Vegas opposite Henry Ruggs. While Ruggs is clearly a more polished athlete, Edwards looks the part of a true alpha at 6-3, 212 pounds. This Panthers-Raiders game has significant shootout potential, and Edwards is the best way to get cheap exposure to it.

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NFL Monkey Knife Fight Props: Week 1

by Cody Carpentier, September 11, 2020

To win a Touchdown Dance on MKF, you must have a multi-touchdown output from at least one player. Last season, the Carolina Panthers gave up a league-worst 27 rushing touchdowns, nine more than any other team. Josh Jacobs led the Raiders with seven touchdowns while finishing No. 11 among qualified running backs with 44 Red Zone Touches. Christian McCaffrey led the NFL with 19 total touchdowns in 2019, scoring multiple touchdowns in four of eight home games.

With 11 touchdowns in 2020, Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski have the opportunity to surpass the great Chargers duo of Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates as the most prolific QB/TE duo of all-time. While Gronk is healthy, expect Brady to target his favorite target early and often in this high scoring affair. In two games last season, Michael Thomas totaled almost 300 yards and three touchdowns against Tampa Bay. Expect nothing less from the best receiver in football on Sunday as New Orleans plays the league’s No. 1 rush defense.

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Buy High and Sell Low Players Before Week 1: Churn at Running Back

by Kyle Dvorchak, September 10, 2020

The Miles Sanders profile looks like that of a bell-cow running back. He is dealing with a hamstring injury but will be announced as active for Week 1. That will return his price to the mid-first-round, back where he was late in the summer. Buy him then, buy him now, buy him high, just get Sanders before he turns from a prospective top-five fantasy back to the real deal.

Mike Williams is questionable for Week 1 with a shoulder injury and reports at the end of camp indicated that the Chargers were preparing to be without him for most of September. Now he’s set to be a game-time decision for Week 1 and will almost certainly not be completely healthy if he does suit up. This is on top of him already entering a worse situation that played in last year, now having Tyrod Taylor as his quarterback.

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Free Square DFS Running Backs for Week 1

by Taylor Smith, September 10, 2020

With the coaches in his corner and the first crack at opportunity, james Robinson looks the part of a free square RB for Week 1. Jacksonville won’t experience much positive Game Script against Indianapolis, but that will be a good thing for Robinson. The Colts allowed an NFL-leading 109 receptions to opposing running backs last season. Any time you can get a min-priced RB that projects for a sizable Opportunity Share, you should pounce.

The best argument for rostering Antonio Gibson is the wasteland of talent in Washington outside of Terry McLaurin. This is also an underrated game environment. The total sits at just 43, but both of these defenses feature strong fronts and weak secondaries. Whether they choose to line him up in the slot, pound him between the tackles or set him up for some slip screens, Gibson will be a major part of the game plan. Expect double-digit touches from the rookie.

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Three DFS Quarterback-Wide Receiver Stacks for Week One

by Taylor Williams, September 10, 2020

With Teddy Bridgewater ($5900) priced outside the top 12 QBs, D.J. Moore’s elevated salary ($6600) becomes more palatable. Sportsbooks have the Raiders favored by a field goal, which means the Panthers will be forced to throw often. Moore will vacuum up targets against a particularly weak secondary. Favorable game state, favorable matchup, and depressed price. These are the ingredients for a stack to smash.

Against San Francisco, we could be looking at Kyler Murray throwing 40-plus times while chipping in some rushing yards, and Christian Kirk getting 10-plus targets, all for under $12K. This stack gives us differentiation, potential for huge volume with big play upside, and keeps our budget open for other favorite plays.

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Very Very Very Very Bold Predictions from the Underworld

by Neil Dutton, September 10, 2020

D’Andre Swift has the opportunity to outscore both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jonathan Taylor in year one. Kerryon Johnson provides little competition and Swift has an elite pedigree. Swift was taken three slots behind CEH and six slots in front of Taylor in the NFL Draft. Yet he is going far later in seasonal leagues. Look for Swift to beat out Johnson and newly-signed Adrian Peterson in the first two weeks to gain a belcow role while Taylor is still sitting behind Marlon Mack.

Chris Herndon’s impressive 2018 season ranks as one of the top rookie tight end seasons of the past several years. He deserves a mulligan for his 2019 season due to his injury and suspension. He enters 2020 as the clear No. 1 tight end in a Jets offense with 186 (No. 4) Vacated Targets and a mono-free QB. Herndon is set to smash in 2020 as Sam Darnold’s favorite target with the upside to be a Top 5 tight end and fantasy league-winner, especially in tight end premium leagues.

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