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Austin Ekeler’s 6.9 Yards per Touch and +54.5 Production Premium were both No. 1 among qualified RBs in 2019. That kind of efficiency doesn’t repeat itself, especially when a team is breaking in a new QB and new Left Tackle in the wake of Russell Okung’s departure. With such significant offseason turnover and expected efficiency regression, be cautious of projecting similar production for the Chargers this year.

How likely is it that Raheem Mostert, a 28-year old, former undrafted free agent with a 25.9 (0th-percentile) BMI, matches last year’s fantasy success? If the defense and the running game regress in San Francisco, that will mean more passing opportunities. This confluence of factors makes the team a risky bet to invest in for fantasy this year, particularly in the run game.

The Jaguars are fully committed to Gardner Minshew entering 2020. He ranked No. 5 among qualified quarterbacks in Deep Ball Completion Percentage, making him a perfect compliment to D.J. Chark’s size and speed on the outside. A team constantly facing negative Game Scripts and low-efficiency defenses will tee up Chark to smash his mid-round ADP.

It has been almost two years since we last saw A.J. Green on a football field, but do not forget the player he was before exiting the 2018 season with toe and ankle injuries. In the half a season he did play, Green averaged 2.11 (No. 11) Yards per Pass Route and had a 31.9-percent (No. 6) Dominator Rating, while posting impressive marks in many of PlayerProfiler’s opportunity-based metrics. No wide receiver available at Green’s draft range offers the kind of league-winning upside that he does.

How Drew Lock helps K.J. Hamler more than Jerry Jeudy. Bryan Edwards, Tyrell Williams, and Hunter Renfrow will keep Henry Ruggs off the field.

Steven Sims is still in sleeper mode. Justin Jefferson has multiple successful comps.

The new-look offensive line in Cleveland will give Browns ball-carriers larger avenues to daylight, making Nick Chubb a leading contender for the league rushing title. Kareem Hunt is equally capable should Chubb go down. While this will be a run-first attack, Baker Mayfield’s projected improvement in efficiency will keep him in the low-end QB1 mix and give Odell Beckham Jr. weekly fantasy WR1 upside.

With the offensive line’s turnaround complete, they should give Houston’s skill players a production boost. Having a group that’s already gelled is an especially meaningful advantage in this COVID-marred campaign, with teams getting precious little time to integrate new players and develop chemistry. While Deshaun Watson is currently the sixth quarterback off the board in many drafts, he is a real contender for a top-three finish even without DeAndre Hopkins.

Though he’ll fight for opportunity with Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb’s 10.0 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) yards per target in 2019 indicated that he can still be efficient in the face of middling volume. Yes, injury concerns remain, but the same can be said for his teammates. Given all that uncertainty, Cobb is a high-floor bargain at his ADP – 135 picks after Cooks goes.

Yes, the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders in New Orleans puts a cap on potential target volume, but Tre’Quan Smith showcased the ability to make the most of his targets with a +65.2 Production Premium and 94.7-percent True Catch Rate in 2019. Sanders is no sure bet to stay on the field, either; now 33, his 65.8-percent (No. 4) Injury Probability ranking is cause for concern — especially when you can draft Smith over 200 picks later.

Miles Sanders is costly in drafts this season and deserves to be. He can go No. 5 overall after the big four running backs and still be a value. Sanders presents overall RB1 upside with a top 12 floor. He proved last season that he is a workhorse, and the coaching staff has said multiple times that they plan on using him as such in 2020. The Eagles committed no draft capital or significant money to indicate otherwise.

D’Andre Swift has the same amount of league-winning upside as Jonathan Taylor, but comes at half the cost in drafts. He is set to follow a similar path as 2019 Miles Sanders. The committee approach we have seen in the Lions backfield over the last few years has suppressed his ADP to the fifth round of FFPC drafts. Swift will take over this backfield the same way Sanders dominated in Philadelphia. Build a team that can get you to the playoffs and let Swift carry you to a championship.

Tough decision: Miles Sanders or Clyde Edwards-Helaire? Why drafting Joe Mixon over Michael Thomas makes perfect sense.

Justin Jackson, Benny Snell, and J.D. McKissic poised for expanded roles this season. Joshua Kelley needs to prove himself on special teams.

Juju Smith-Schuster; yet a hype train that is way out of control. While there are aspects of his player profile to like, there are an abundance of red flags. Similar to Austin Ekeler, the draft price is too costly given the talent and circumstance. His Best Comparable Player is DeAndre Hopkins, but unlike the former Texan, Smith-Schuster couldn’t produce with lackluster quarterback play last year. It’s fair to wonder if the 2018 version of Smith-Schuster will ever be seen again.

The optimism behind Austin Ekeler, and the reason for rostering him, is his receiving skills out of the backfield. He ranked No. 2 among qualified running backs in Targets Per Game (6.8), receptions (92) and receiving yards (993) in 2019. The issue is his struggles running the ball effectively, raising questions about his ability to be a three-down back. Meaning Ekeler’s teammates, Justin Jackson and rookie Joshua Kelley, will see far more action than most expect.

Targets and opportunities matter for wide receivers. Last year, A.J. Brown ranked No. 47 among qualified wide receivers with 84 targets, only drawing a 19.5-percent (No. 41) Target Share. Yet, he’s the 16th wide receiver being drafted per FFPC ADP data. His low target and Target Share numbers are unsustainable, and it’s risky to trust a wide receiver with a low target share in a low-volume passing offense. 

The main concerns surround the extreme efficiency paired with a team with such little passing volume. Brown ranked No. 2 in Fantasy Points per Target while ranking No. 47 in total targets and No. 41 in Target Share on an offense that nearly averaged the fewest passes per game. The unsustainably extreme efficiency and the opportunity metrics clash, and Brown’s ADP doesn’t reflect it.

At 5-11, 213-pounds, Dare Ogunbowale is a slightly bigger and more explosive version of James White. Both former Wisconsin RBs are featured in their respective passing games, finishing top-24 in Pass Snaps played last year. Ogunbowale made his limited touches count, finishing the year with 6.6 Yards per Touch, 1.32 (No. 11 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, and a +17.2 (No. 19) Production Premium.

Eno Benjamin landed in an explosive Arizona offense that helped three different running backs find weekly fantasy football success last season. The Kliff Kingsbury-coached Cardinals gave high Snap Shares to their starters, with an RB receiving 70-percent or more of the snaps in 13 out of 16 games. Benjamin, whose Best Comparable Player is Duke Johnson, becomes a priority target if the Cardinals again struggle to find a workhorse.