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Kyler Murray’s red zone efficiency will improve dramatically this season. Matt Ryan is the engine of the Atlanta offense.

Sam Darnold was the youngest starting quarterback in NFL history. Lamar Jackson could break his own records in fantasy football.

James Conner went down with the entire offensive ship in Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger went down to injury. Mike Tomlin has already come out this offseason stating his belief in a workhorse running back approach, confirming that if Conner stays healthy he can finish as a top tier fantasy back. If he reaches similar opportunity totals to what he saw in 2018, we’ve already seen what he can do when he finished with 21.2 (No. 7 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points per Game.

Chris Carson is an underrated athlete with a 127.9 (87th-percentile) Burst Score and a 120.8 (77th-percentile) SPARQ-x score. While many believed he was more of a plodder, he proved last year that his 2018 metrics were not flukey. He posted a 4.7-percent (No. 17) Breakaway Run Rate, 85 (No. 6) Evaded Tackles, and a 27.0-percent (No. 15) Juke Rate. This behind a worse offensive line that put up a 63.8 (No. 46) Run Blocking Efficiency grade.

Will DeSean Jackson actually go to Auschwitz? Marquise Goodwin is not a worthy dynasty stash.

Brandon Aiyuk and Henry Ruggs are primed for big rookie years. Chase Edmonds is the secret password to get into the good analysts room.

Joshua Kelley posted a 4.49 (80th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-Yard Dash with a 104.3 (78th-percentile) Speed Score, as well as a College Dominator Rating in the 77th-percentile. There’s a lot to like about the rookie’s profile. At 5-11 and 211-pounds, he has a bit more size than Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson; a fact that could potentially lead to a Melvin Gordon-like role. There are enough available carries to go around that Kelley will be able to produce in year one.

Ito Smith has a solid player profile with above average metrics and a 4.50 (77th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash. In addition, the third year pro has had a difficult time staying healthy, and his 99.4 Fragility Rating ranks at No. 1 at the running back position. If Smith can remain on the field, however, his talent level supersedes that of Brian Hill and Quadree Ollison, indicating he is the best bet to garner productive carries behind Todd Gurley.

David Njoku wants out of Cleveland. Buy Austin Hooper? Josh Jacobs is surprisingly obtainable.

Is Clyde Edwards-Helaire a trap? Leonard Fournette is a better bet to see a workhorse opportunity share than James Conner.

With the draft day trade to Miami, Matt Breida saw an instant boost in fantasy value. Instead of fighting for scraps in a crowded 49ers backfield, he’s now in line for significant touches on a thin depth chart. The Dolphins are an ascending offense with talented playmakers and they added four offensive linemen in the draft. His explosiveness and pass-catching ability makes him the back to target in Miami.

Every Arizona lead running back during the 2019 season put up significant fantasy performances, combining for nine top-12 weeks between them. Fantasy drafters are selecting Chase Edmonds at his floor with an ADP outside the top-50 RBs. His ceiling is not factored into his price, making him a fantastic target in the double-digit rounds. Edmonds is a league-winner if anything happens to Kenyan Drake.

Last season, Derrick Henry scored 18 touchdowns for the Titans while leading all qualified running backs with 303 carries and 1,539 rushing yards. PlayerProfiler’s Data Analysis Tool calculates Expected Touchdowns for running backs and Henry had a 7.60 touchdown difference (10.4 expected). A non-factor in the passing game with 25 (No. 49) targets, Henry’s touchdown regression will make it difficult to return value on his first-round ADP.

Leonard Fournette’s 0.90-percent Touchdown Rate is unbelievable for a running back that had 265 (No. 7) carries and 316 (No. 2) Weighted Opportunities. While Derrick Henry lead running backs with 7.60 touchdowns over expectation, Fournette’s 9.40 touchdowns below expected was dead last for running backs. Sure, he won’t see 100 targets in the 2020 season, but the positive regression in the touchdown category will more than make up for the decrease in the receiving game. 

Christian Kirk was supremely active in the red zone last year for the Cardinals but only came away with one red zone touchdown. Based on his Red Zone Target Share and Red Zone Receptions, that number should have been over five. With any luck, Kirk’s potential decrease in volume due to the addition of DeAndre Hopkins can be more than offset by positive reversion in efficiency. Go get him before it’s too late.

Given Courtland Sutton’s opportunity last year, he should have scored over five red zone touchdowns. Instead, he only scored three. Chase the opportunity. His 28.2-percent Red Zone Target Share was tied for No. 6 among wide receivers with ten or more games played. However, among those players, Sutton’s three touchdowns ranked last. Denver invested heavily in the offense this offseason, but players such as Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler are not immediate red zone target magnets.

It’s in the U.S. Constitution that Jarvis Landry must receive 120 targets every single NFL season. It’s true — look it up. Landry, who racked up more fantasy points last season than all but 11 wideouts, is once again being overlooked in redraft. He’s something close to a must-draft for those who hammer running back early and often.

Sure, Tyler Boyd won’t see 148 garbage targets like he did in 2019, assuming A.J. Green can remain upright for most or all of the 2020 season. Still, he should easily eclipse 100 targets and could prove the above projection overly-conservative if the Bengals let it rip this year and end up among the pass-heaviest teams in the league.

The Indianapolis Colts will play the NFC North, the AFC North, the Jets, the Raiders, and their own division twice. That list includes mostly run-first teams with erratic quarterback play resulting in a more conservative offensive game plan; i.e. low scoring and high-turnover opponents. Their own division is up for grabs and arguably among the easier divisions in football.

The Colts’ offseason moves indicate that this team plans to win games utilizing the running game and their elite offensive line. Based on their talent and schedule, they easily can be a top defense. Their affordable ADP in fantasy drafts makes them the ideal target in redraft and best ball leagues. Don’t overpay for last years rankings, go buy this years defensive league winner.