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The Indianapolis Colts will play the NFC North, the AFC North, the Jets, the Raiders, and their own division twice. That list includes mostly run-first teams with erratic quarterback play resulting in a more conservative offensive game plan; i.e. low scoring and high-turnover opponents. Their own division is up for grabs and arguably among the easier divisions in football.

The Colts’ offseason moves indicate that this team plans to win games utilizing the running game and their elite offensive line. Based on their talent and schedule, they easily can be a top defense. Their affordable ADP in fantasy drafts makes them the ideal target in redraft and best ball leagues. Don’t overpay for last years rankings, go buy this years defensive league winner.

Anthony McFarland could grow as the season goes along. Confirmation bias is dragging down Leonard Fournette.

Saquon Barkley is coach and quarterback agnostic. Ben Roethlisberger is doomed but James Washington and Diontae Johnson can still be productive.

Kareem Hunt’s ceiling is the highest of any of the Zero RB targets. If Nick Chubb goes down, Hunt slides into a massive Opportunity Share. He would have the Cleveland backfield to himself, absorbing all the carries, receptions, and touchdowns. He would instantly become a top-five fantasy running back. We don’t even have to assume that he can do it, we’ve seen it from him already.

Phillip Lindsay is explosive in the passing game. He struggled with drops in 2019, but he caught 35 passes in each of his first two pro seasons and held a 14.6-percent (93rd-percentile among qualified running backs) College Target Share in college. He has shown enough to believe he will still hold a fair share of the Broncos backfield work. If Melvin Gordon gets injured or proves ineffective, we already know Lindsay can step into that RB1 role and thrive.

The New York Jets have made an effort to build up the offense around quarterback Sam Darnold in 2020. Though Robby Anderson departed for Carolina, the Jets responded by adding Breshad Perriman in free agency and Denzel Mims in the draft. Perriman is a more than capable replacement for Anderson. As for Mims, the Baylor product should become an instant favorite of Darnold’s, and a true target hog. 

Will Fuller is the true, lone incumbent of this Houston reveling crew, and has established rapport with Deshaun Watson. His health is a constant question mark, but there is no question what he is capable of when healthy. In 2019, the wideout carried an astounding 84.5-percent (No. 28 among qualified wide receivers) True Catch Rate through his 11 games played. If there is to be a sole beneficiary of the available targets, Fuller is the best bet.

Sony Michel and James White are both better off with Cam. Joe Mixon signs an extension and immediately comes off the fade list.

Dalvin Cook can’t get off the fade list. Kenny Golladay beat the fade list last year.

There are many data points on the JaMycal Hasty profile that make him a worthwhile stash. The big knock on him is his 12.8-percent (13th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating. He played four seasons of college ball but peaked at second in rushing yardage on his own team. He has an intriguing skillset for a UDFA, but the incoming price correction from fantasy players overreacting to the Raheem Mostert news could make him a chalk-fade within weeks.

Jeff Wilson’s athleticism doesn’t immediately rule him out of fantasy viability, but it certainly puts him at a disadvantage. He did not record a single athletic measurable that was above average when testing. Unlike JaMycal Hasty, what Wilson lacks in athleticism he makes up for with actual production. He also has reps in the most valuable role in modern football: the goal line back. He recorded 2.3 red zone carries per game in San Francisco’s first seven games last year.

Phillip Dorsett is currently slotted in as the number three receiver in Seattle and the primary deep threat. Last season, Tom Brady had a 100.6 QBR when targeting Dorsett, good enough for No. 32 among qualified players. He will now be drawing targets from Russell Wilson; who boasted a 110.9 (No. 4) True Passer Rating in 2019 with a 39.8-percent (No. 12) Deep Ball Completion Percentage.

Kaden Smith’s usage in seven games last season was absurd with a 94.6-percent (No. 1) Snap Share, a 70.9-percent (No. 8) Route Participation mark, and a 16.7-percent (No. 11) Target Share on an offense that saw the seventh-most pass plays per game. He managed 10.8 Fantasy Points per Game with a 73.8-percent (No. 12) Catch Rate with three (No. 19) touchdowns. Add in Engrams No. 5 Injury Probability ranking and No. 11 Fragility Rating and we have the recipe for a TE1 in fantasy football.

Leonard Fournette will not be sharing touches and that matters. The Counselor is conflicted over Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Why Jerry Jeudy’s footwork video went viral. What is Patrick Laird like in real life?

At 6-1 and 205-pounds, Marquez Callaway boasts above average marks in Speed Score and College Dominator Rating. Despite a below average 40-Yard Dash time, the Tennessee product boasted a 19.0 (90th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPR mark. Not to mention a 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. The young receiver has the requisite profile and college production to make noise in the NFL.

There were few better landing spots for JaMycal Hasty; joining a 49ers squad that churns out productive backs, undrafted or otherwise. With Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman leading the way in San Fran, there is little else for depth behind them. A path is clear for Hasty on a team that utilizes the receiving skills of their backs; a specialty of the undrafted rookie. Like Mostert and Matt Breida before him, Hasty looks to make his mark in the city by the bay.

Irv Smith recorded 36 (No. 23 among qualified tight ends) receptions for 311 (No. 33) yards with two (No. 33) touchdowns as a 21-year-old rookie. To put that into context, that’s No. 3 in receptions and No. 6 in yards all time for a tight end at age 21. He was able to accomplish this while having a mere 61.7-percent (No. 34) Shap Share and, per PFF, rush blocking on 43.3-percent of his snaps with a No. 22 grade out of 67 qualified tight ends. 

Tight end is considered the toughest offensive position to come into and produce right away at the pro level. Smith was able to do so as a 21-year-old rookie back-up tight end, making his 2019 season even more impressive. The combination of producing at such a young age, the athletic profile, and the current passing options on the Vikings make him a prime buy candidate before his eventual breakout.