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Draft capital is extremely important for wide receivers. After that, age-adjusted college production isn’t just the most important metric, it’s the only one that matters. Aside from maybe Speed Score, athleticism doesn’t matter for wide receivers. College market share numbers look more predictive of a breakout season than college efficiency, although our ideal prospect will have both.

Our highest profile bust candidate is easily Henry Ruggs, whose strong draft capital does not do enough to mask the spotty college production profile. Of our 55 breakout wide receivers with at least one season of 15 Fantasy Points per Game or more, only college quarterback Julian Edelman and college wide receiver/running back Wes Welker posted a lower College Dominator Rating than Ruggs’ 17.5-percent (17th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) mark.

The Carolina Panthers offense is loaded with explosive talent all across the board. The defense, on the other hand, is young and terrible. With a 53.3-percent (97th percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating, D.J. Moore is a great target to pair with Teddy Bridgewater and his 7.8 (No. 2) Accuracy Rating.

Joe Burrow posted a 94.9 (99th-percentile) College QBR in a Heisman season for the ages. The Cincinnati Bengals offense has the tools to take off in Zac Taylor’s system. Wide receiver A.J. Green’s 66.7-percent (No. 3) Contested Catch Rate from 2018 will pair nicely with Burrow’s 76.3-percent Completion Percentage. 

Draft capital is extremely important for running backs. After that, College Dominator Rating and Breakout Age are the most important metrics. Speed Score is the most important and predictive Combine metric that we have for the position. There are also thresholds for College YPC (6.0) and College Target Share (10.0-percent) we should want our running backs to meet when looking for breakout candidates.

Those looking for a sleeper running back should look no further than Antonio Gibson. He was incredibly explosive when he received touches, posting an 11.2 (99th-percentile among qualified running backs) College YPC mark with a 12.7-percent (88th-percentile) College Target Share. He certainly fits the mold of a breakout running back candidate being in an ambiguous backfield and possessing pass-catching chops.

Tua Tagovailoa and Baker Mayfield are destined to be great. Josh Allen is a raging sell in dynasty.

Matt Ryan will be productive for the next five years. Derek Carr has underrated upside.

In a draft class that included Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Cam Akers is flying under the radar. He was even selected before Dobbins in this year’s NFL Draft. At 5-10, 217-pounds with a 4.47 (87th-percentile among qualified running backs) 40-Yard Dash and 108.7 (89th-percentile) Speed Score, Akers fits the mold of a feature back.

There is hope that this Rams offensive line can surprise with health and continuity as it did in 2017 and 2018. Akers’ youth, health, and profile should help even if there is no improvement along the offensive line. If he receives a similar Opportunity Share to Gurley’s 2019 mark where he inefficiently averaged 14.5 (No. 17) Fantasy Points per Game, there’s no telling what he can do. 

Anthony McFarland’s second gear is apparent. If he wasn’t outrunning defenders at the second level, there were plenty of jukes and broken tackles on film to support an Aaron Jones-ian talent profile at the pro level. His talents can be unlocked behind the perennially great Steelers line. We’ve got the uncertain backfield, plus athleticism, game-breaking speed and make-defenders-miss-ability. That meets our standards.

With Dion Lewis out of the picture, there’s hope for Darrynton Evans to immediately earn meaningful snaps as a pass-catcher with the Titans showing no desire to ramp up Derrick Henry’s pass-catching opportunities. While not a prolific pass-catcher in school, his targets and receiving production increased every year, and he’s certainly got more of a satellite back-plus profile than Henry.

Quarterback is the position where college efficiency metrics matter the most. Hand size, weight, and BMI are poor predictors of future fantasy success. Height and Wonderlic Score can be ignored when evaluating quarterback prospects. Athleticism matters when trying to evaluate a quarterback’s rushing potential. Other than College QBR and draft pick, there are not a ton of easy ways to identify values in rookie quarterbacks, at least from a fantasy perspective.

Jalen Hurts was a second-round pick, so the draft capital is not on his side, but he has tremendous upside if Carson Wentz misses time and he gets a chance to start. His collegiate resume features an 11.3 (98th-percentile among qualified quarterbacks) College YPA, an 89.7 (95th-percentile) College QBR, and fantastic athleticism indicated by a 125-inch Broad Jump and 4.59 (95th-percentile) 40-Yard Dash.

With Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, Keenan Allen should still command plenty of looks. He was inside the top ten with 831 (No. 10 among qualified wide receivers) Completed Air Yards and 368 (No. 9) Yards after the Catch despite playing with a quarterback in Phillip Rivers who finished outside the top 15 with a 7.2 (No. 16) Accuracy Rating. We have a unique opportunity to take a player who may be one of the last true target hogs at the wide receiver position as a low-end WR2. That is a bargain.

Gerald Everett wasn’t as flashy as Tyler Higbee, but before the injury that opened the door for Higbee, he was having a pretty good season. He finished the year with a 14.5-percent (No. 9) Hog Rate. The fact that he only scored two touchdowns obviously hurt him a great deal from a fantasy point of view, but despite this, he put in four top 12 scoring weeks between Weeks 4-10. Plus, and this does bear mentioning, he is super athletic.

Similar to 2019, this season offers multiple running back options in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. While the high-end backs are worth their price, there is enough value late that wide receiver can still be the focus early on. According to current ADP, Chris Carson and Mark Ingram are once again going in the fifth round or later. Derrius Guice, a player with compelling metrics, is going in the seventh round. Though there is history of injury and competition in Washington, Guice is a prime breakout candidate.

Not only does this running back rookie class ooze talent, but there is also depth. Zack Moss, Anthony McFarland and Joshua Kelly are late-round rookies with intriguing player profiles. They also have an opportunity to make an instant impact given their situations. Moss and Kelly will have opportunity right away and McFarland is a James Conner injury away from becoming Ben Roethlisberger’s best friend. These players can be added to the list of names to target in the later rounds to fill out depth at the position.

Joe Mixon is among the most talented running backs in the NFL. He finished No. 1 among qualified running backs with 103 Evaded Tackles. He also finished with a 32.9-percent (No. 4) Juke Rate, and 576 (No. 2) Yards Created. Entering his contract year with the additions of Joe Burrow and last year’s injured first round pick Jonah Williams, Mixon is primed for a top ten fantasy finish.

The Chargers selected Justin Herbert with the No. 6 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, but he’s initially expected to ride the bench in the early going. In Tyrod Taylor’s three seasons starting for the Bills, he averaged a 94-525-5 line as a rusher. He also finished as a top 10 fantasy QB in 2016 with Lynn as his offensive coordinator, so there’s familiarity there. If Taylor were to start the entire season, he would be hard-pressed to hit 500 pass attempts as part of a slow, conservative group.