Using Rookie Year Efficiency to Predict Second Year Wide Receiver Production

by Ron Stewart, May 13, 2020

Hunter Renfrow was second in the 2019 rookie wide receiver class in Yards Per Pass Route only to A.J. Brown. In addition to his efficiency, he earned 71 targets. From day one, he earned opportunities and was efficient on the field. There’s not much more we can ask. The Raiders did add talent to their receiving corps with Henry Ruggs, Lynn Bowden, and Bryan Edwards, but Renfrow will still see his share of the targets in year two.

Andy Isabella’s 3.1 Yards Per Pass Route looks much less impressive in the context of his 13 rookie season targets. The Cardinals ran 4-5 wide receiver sets a league-high 31.9-percent of the time and he still couldn’t earn looks in a weak receiver room, seeing fewer targets than the likes of Damiere Byrd, KeeSean Johnson, and Pharoh Cooper. In the context of the data, he becomes an easy fade despite the hype around his prospect profile.

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The 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers are a Fantasy Football Gold Mine

by Taylor Smith, May 8, 2020

If you’re looking for a bit of Steelers nostalgia, look no further than Diontae Johnson. He’s practically an Antonio Brown clone. Johnson and Brown share similar frames, athletic profiles, college production, and special teams dominance. Brown averaged 1,144 special teams yards per season with five return touchdowns in college. Johnson averaged 723 with four scores and made an impact as a rookie, putting up 248 punt return yards with a touchdown.

The best way to capitalize on this talent-rich roster is with the guy throwing the ball. Ben Roethlisberger led the NFL in passing yards in 2018 and has finished top-7 in both yards and touchdowns in each of his last three healthy seasons. He also has an elite pass-blocking offensive line that has afforded him a top-3 Protection Rate over the last three seasons. Roethlisberger has all the makings of an elite, gunslinging fantasy quarterback if his elbow holds up.

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Post-NFL Draft Dynasty Rookie Risers and Fallers

by Ron Stewart, May 5, 2020

Jalen Reagor comes into a situation as the instant No. 1 receiver in Philadelphia and should become an instant fantasy beneficiary as someone with serious contested catch and deep-ball abilities. His quarterback is not afraid to throw deep or into coverage, allowing for plenty of opportunities for splash plays. He has the chance to be a pumped up Brandin Cooks and should be rising up every dynasty player’s rookie board.

When Jerry Jeudy was drafted No. 15 overall to the Denver Broncos, there was almost an audible crash as he fell down many analysts’ rankings over the weekend. With the addition of Melvin Gordon, the Broncos are more committed to the run game than ever. Jeudy’s fate lies in the hands of Drew Lock’s ability to become a hyper-efficient quarterback at the next level. This is dynasty and situations are subject to change, but with a Jeudy breakout unlikely over his first few seasons, he falls from WR2 overall into the WR5 range.

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Rookie Running Back Risers Based on Landing Spot

by Taylor Smith, May 4, 2020

Clyde Edwards-Helaire won the lottery. His skillset already made him the perfect weapon for any offense. Not only was Edwards-Helaire a target magnet with a 10.2-percent (76th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Target Share, but he had suction cups for hands, catching 55 of his 58 looks. He’s also incredibly elusive with the ball in his hands, wiggling past defenders with his 128.7 (89th-percentile) Burst Score. With his 32.4 (89th-percentile) Body Mass Index, he’ll double as a stout workhorse on the ground.

One quiet riser in the rookie ranks was Anthony McFarland. The Pittsburgh Steelers grabbed the speedster out of Maryland as a nice insurance policy for James Conner. Given Conner’s lengthy Medical History Report, McFarland may pay off for them as soon as 2020. His touches will be limited as a rookie, but he has the skills to deliver splash plays and should earn more work. Despite seeing the third-highest jump in Lifetime Value among rookie running backs, he’s still a project in dynasty leagues.

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Drafting for Value: Superflex Startup Review

by Tyler Strong, May 1, 2020

In both rookie drafts and startups, my policy is almost always to trade back early. It’s likely that a number of assets will be of similar value up top before positional scarcity can take place. Moving back and acquiring even more blue chip players is a big plus. I drew the 1.03 in this superflex draft and it was tough passing on Lamar Jackson, but I traded the 1.03 and 3.03 for the 1.06 and the 2.07. Those picks turned into Ezekiel Elliott and Chris Godwin.

The second half of the draft was all about upside and depth. In Rounds 15 and 16, I selected two running backs with promising profiles that needed changes of scenery to become relevant once again. With Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon ahead of him, there’s hope that Royce Freeman gets shipped out of Denver this summer or in season and has a chance to prove himself. Matt Breida walks into a high value role as the best receiving back on a pass-happy Dolphins team with only Jordan Howard in town.

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Five Big Veteran Losers from the 2020 NFL Draft

by Neil Dutton, May 1, 2020

The last time the Green Bay Packers spent a first-round pick on an offensive skill player was back in 2005 when they surprisingly selected Aaron Rodgers. Fast forward 15 years and, in one of the deepest wide receiver classes in living memory, Rodgers must have been secretly hoping that drought would come to an end. It did, but not in a way that Rodgers would have wanted. Instead, the Packers threw away a fourth-rounder to move up and select Jordan Love, his eventual replacement.

The Detroit Lions have tried to tell us how they feel about Kerryon Johnson, but we just won’t listen. They don’t want to use him as an every-down workhorse. They want a running back committee. Still, we write and speak about how good it will be when Johnson is finally handed the keys to the Lions rushing attack. The team’s early-second round selection of D’Andre Swift should finally convince the Kerryon truthers that this is not going happen.

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