DFS

Three seasons, three mediocre quarterbacks. Matt Ryan completes Indianapolis’s Knights of the Mediocre Roundtable. His above-average accuracy metrics are dulled by his inability to push the ball past the sticks. Ryan’s 2.5 (No. 26 of qualified quarterbacks) Deep Ball Attempts per Game and 6.4 (No. 29) Air Yards per Attempt are both worse than Phillip Rivers in the final season of his career. With nine (No. 1) fumbles and five (No. 2) interceptions, Ryan is rapidly approaching a 2020 Drew Brees-level of bad.

Chris Olave saw over 100 Air Yards for the third consecutive week and continues to break the value index. Olave was the Saints leading receiver with with Michael Thomas hobbled by a toe injury seeing seven targets. Olave leads the league in both Air Yards and Unrealized Air Yards meaning that no matter who is throwing him the football, be it Jameis Winston, or Andy Dalton, he is going to have slate breaking potential. Olave has not reached his ceiling and is in a great spot to finally do so this week against a Seahawks secondary that was recently lit up the Detroit Lions. Olave is a must play wide receiver in all formats at his cost.

George Pickens led the Steelers with 157 Air Yards last week and is only three Air Yards behind Dionte Johnson for the season leader in Air Yards among Steelers. Pickens will likely soon be the leader among Steelers wide receivers in Air Yards with Kenny Pickett now at quarterback. Pickett had more Deep Ball Attempts in his 13 pass attempts (4) than Mitch Trubisky had all season (1). Pickens has massive blow up potential entering week five and is a great play in all formats.

The Texans have allowed over 100 yards rushing to opponents in three out of four games this season. They have also allowed at least 9 RB receptions in two of those games and yielded 6 total touchdowns to RBs. Etienne is the pass-catching back in Jacksonville, seeing 11 targets to Robinson’s 7 so far this season. The matchup against Houston in Week 5 is the spot for Etienne to finally come through for fantasy owners.

While Sanders dominates RB touches now, his overall Snap Share is still less than 60-percent and Hurts is a continuous threat to take rushing touchdown opportunities. Expect the Cardinals and Eagles to play to their respective strengths in a shootout through the passing game this week. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are in for big weeks, but Sanders is in line to be left behind against a solid run defense in what will be a high scoring, passing-dominated affair.

This week was the revenge of the Running Backs in a couple of ways. First of all, they simply scored more points. For the first time this season, the top 12 running backs of the week outscored the top 12 wide receivers of the week. As for who scored those points, it was a bit of a mixed bag. Only three of the top 12 RBs were drafted as top 12 RBs, while six of the top 12 WRs were drafted as such. That being said, seven of the top 12 RBs were drafted top 24 at the position, and only Jamaal Williams qualified as a “streamer” among the top 12 finishers. This was by far the worst streaming week of the year.

With Jimmy Garoppolo back under center, the 49ers will host the Rams in a NFC West MNF Showdown in Week 4. The game sets up as a defensive scrum with no love lost on either side. A notable injury that will affect the game include the loss of All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. I like an alt-under here as a safe bet. The two teams have combined to average 43 points per game in their last 3 meetings. Touchdown hunting is also on the table with superstars like Deebo Samuel and Cooper Kupp on the field. Without further ado, let’s break down this Monday Night Showdown!

Player props in the NFL continue to be a profitable way to attack the betting market. In locations where you cannot get your hands on a full-access sportsbook, you can still find supreme value in pick ’em props. Every prop is the same price, and you just have to find the overs and unders the line-creators have whiffed on. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ’ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper. This week we will be reviewing the Best Pick Em Player Props for Week 4!

It’s not only the cornerback matchup that is a problem for Marquise Brown; the Panthers have a good pass defense. Only two defenses have been targeted more than Carolina AND allowed fewer passing yards. Terry McLaurin’s Target Share is 16.5-percent (No. 56). McLaurin’s Target Share has NEVER been below 23.0-percent in his career. Nico Collins’15.5-percent (No. 60) Target Share is lower than one would want to see for a dart throw, but Collins does have a nine-target game this season where he exceeded 120 Air Yards.

Back once again like a renegade master, I have returned to cast my eyes over the speed at which NFL offenses are currently operating. It’s time once again for the Pace of Play report. The Pace of Play is a metric that fantasy managers in all formats should be aware of. You see, we need players to make plays in order to score fantasy points. The more plays a team runs, the more chances for fantasy points there are. It’s yet another useful tool to help us in making lineup choices and propel us to a title or a big DFS win. The possibilities are almost endless.

Buffalo’s lethal defense brought Tua Tagovailoa back to earth following his show-stopping Week 2 performance, limiting the Dolphins to 186 passing yards on 18 attempts. His output should have been far worse. It looked as if he would not return from the gruesome head injury he suffered late in the second quarter. The Bengals defense offers quite the exploitable matchup as they have struggled to slow down inferior offenses in three straight weeks. Tua is proving to be one of the most accurate passers in the league, and will be a top-12 option tonight.

Amari Cooper is looking like his old self again. After being out targeted by Donovan Peoples-Jones 11 to 6 in week one, Cooper has regained his anticipated stranglehold on the Browns passing attack. Cooper has seen double digit targets, and over 120 Air Yards each of the past two weeks.  Look for Cooper to continue his dominance this week against Falcons.

Marvin Jones continues to pace the Jaguars in Air Yards. While he has been outscored in fantasy points by both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, Marvin Jones remains the Jaguars preferred downfield target with an average target distance of 14.3 yards. If Trevor Lawrence is forced to air it out with the Jaguars going against an explosive Eagles offense, look for him to try to find Marvin Jones for a long touchdown.