DFS

The Jaguars have nothing to lose, but Marvin Jones will lose $500,000 if he doesn’t bring in four receptions against the Colts. As a result, his volume will be safe in Jacksonville’s Week 18 pride match. Jones has reached 43 yards in five of his last seven games, so this modest line has a strong chance to hit the OVER. Also, he won’t have difficulty producing yards against PlayerProfiler’s CB64, Isaiah Rodgers.

It’s Gronk smash time in an important matchup against Carolina. The Buccaneers will lean heavily on Rob Gronkowsi because they are without Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin. Carolina’s defense yields a high percentage of it’s targets allowed to tight ends and Gronk will make the most of this opportunity with his 10.4 (No. 1 among qualified tight ends) Average Target Distance. Most importantly, he needs 85 receiving yards to earn a $500,000 incentive bonus. Cash out with Gronk.

Jonathan Taylor is a slam dunk. In a must-win game for the Colts, Taylor should get plenty of run. He’s currently 266 Rushing Yards away from the 2,000 yard mark. That’s a lofty goal but not out of the range of outcomes for the standout rusher. At DK Sportsbook, the Colts are 15 point road favorites. The Jaguars rank last in the league in rushing percentage allowed when trailing by 7 or more points (44-percent rate h/t RotoGrinders). Get your popcorn ready for this one.

Speaking of incentives, Cooper Kupp should have some extra motivation to finish his historic season strong. In a must-win game against division rival 49ers, Kupp also needs 12 Receptions (a feat he’s achieved once already this season) to break the single-season receiving record. He’s also 171 Receiving Yards away from a 2,000 yard receiving season. Fire up fantasy’s WR1 and find value elsewhere.

The second toughest slate – only behind Week 1 – is upon us. The DFS matchups for Week 18 are not easily predicted as there are vast directions each game could go. With seven teams from each conference now making the playoffs, what used to be a throwaway week for fantasy, is now one we can play in hopes of some high-scoring contests. However, where we found values prior to 2020, are now areas with questions.

Although he plays mostly out of the slot, whenever slot corner Byron Murphy lines up there, the Seahawks move Tyler Lockett to the outside. After a massive performance from D.K. Metcalf in Week 17, DraftKings pumped his price up $500 and I expect the field to follow. I’ll be off Metcalf outside of a couple of lineups in Week 18. To finish off the stack on the Seahawks, I don’t mind running Rashaad Penny out with Russell Wilson.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

James Conner, David Montgomery, and Antonio Gibson are all cash and tournament viable in Week 18, making for great plays. Myles Gaskin and Zack Moss at this moment in time look like players to fade. Check the news updates for the early games and the late games in the event there are some unexpected surprises. 

The behemoths of all behemoths. There are a plethora of options to choose from the matchups on the Week 17 DFS slate. 14 games are upon us with no byes and no games on Thursday or Saturday. As a result, there’s little reason to fade players due to the spread of ownership projections. However, keep in mind the vast landscape also creates high levels of volatility, and aiming for the ceiling is a must.

When I go with the Dak Prescott-Amari Cooper-Tony Pollard stack, I’ll run it back with Christian Kirk in the slot against (hopefully) Jourdan Lewis. Trevon Diggs doesn’t travel to the inside and will likely line up on A.J. Green throughout the game. Zach Ertz makes sense as well, and don’t sleep on Antoine Wesley.

On the heels of a straight-up embarrassing romp of the Washington Football Team, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys host the Cardinals. Over the past four games, Arizona has allowed the No. 7 most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Pair Prescott up with Amari Cooper, who led the team in Week 16 with a season-high 27.5-percent Target Share.

Projecting at only 1.2-percent ownership, Dalton Schultz looks like the most overlooked piece from the Cowboys side of the ball. Schultz gets a great game environment in a weather-controlled dome in a game ranked No. 1 in Pace of Play. Schultz has shown tournament-winning upside while surpassing 20 DKPt in back-to-back games. The Cardinals have been suspect within 10 yards of the LOS allowing a 55-percent Pass Rate in that area where Shultz mostly operates.

The Terry McLaurin contrarian play narrative continues after an underwhelming 7 fantasy point performance last week in a blow out against the Cowboys. McLaurin has still seen at least 65 Air Yards the past four games despite averaging 4.8 fantasy points per game during this time span. Something has to give. Perhaps it does this week against the Eagles.

Marvin Jones and the Jaguars have an implied team point total of 13 points against a stout Patriots defense this week. He is perhaps a bit too contrarian of a play despite finishing as the WR20 last week seeing 157 Air Yards. However, at only $4,400 he makes for a low cost tournament dart though that has the peripheral stats to greatly outperform that price.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

David Montgomery is the top value play at running back this week and would use in both cash games and tournaments. The remaining players in the index are in shared backfields. If they come up in a lineup generator for MME entries into tournaments, that is fine, but they are too risky for cash games, single entry, and three-max tournaments.
 

The best way to cut through the field like a hot knife through butter is by unlocking a unique player with sky-high upside. When assessing your last selections, in particular from teams such as the Chiefs, Buccaneers, or Packers, of which the entrenched skill players are selected early, prioritize contingent value. Essentially, if a player at their position gets COVID, who is most likely to benefit, and how great is that benefit?

Trey Lance gets his second start Sunday, and what if he wins the last two games to secure the 49ers into the playoffs? Would Kyle Shanahan really turn away from the man he mortgaged his future for? The highest ceiling version of this team is with Lance unlocking a newfound ceiling, and providing elite fantasy production on the ground as San Francisco challenges for a title.

Veteran wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is set for big opportunity in pivotal division matchup today against the Patriots. The Bills will be without both Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis, resulting in a target void that Sanders will have to fill on team that runs 38.4 (No. 4) Team Pass Plays Per Game. And the icing on the cake for this line is that Sanders has a 16.2 (No. 3 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance, demonstrating that he will hit this line in the first half with his presumed spike in volume.

The theme of the picks thus far has been COVID-19/injury induced opportunity. Another prime example of this is the Damien Harris rushing line on Underdog Fantasy. The Patriots will be without Rhamondre Stevenson and potentially Brandon Bolden, leaving Harris with the lion’s share of carries against a Buffalo team that has allowed 170 rushing yards per game in the last three games. Harris torched the Bills in Week 13 with 111 yards on 10 carries and while his efficiency will certainly regress, his opportunity will boom on a team with 28.4 (No. 8) Team Run Plays Per Game.