DFS

Patrick Mahomes is priced up at $8,000, but he’s worth the spend-up at the position. Mahomes should have no problem returning to fantasy relevancy with a visit from a Raiders team he dismantled (39DKPt) a couple weeks back. In a game tied for No. 1 in Pace of Play, The Chiefs own a slate-high 28.75 Vegas team total.

With cheaper bellcow streamers soaking up ownership, Alvin Kamara is a light-chalk leverage play in a smash spot against the Jets. The Jets have had no answer for enemy running backs allowing a league-worst 36.9 DKPt/game average. Ranking last in Rush Percentage Inside 10 has resulted in 18 enemy rushing touchdowns (also league worst). Interestingly, Kamara still ranks inside the top 10 in Carries Inside 10 (13 carries), even after missing four weeks with a knee injury. It’s Kamara time.

Don’t look now, but Laquon Treadwell is the No. 1 wide receiver in Jacksonville. Jamal Agnew was sent to the Injured Reserve two weeks ago and since then, Treadwell has seen significant opportunity: 91.5-percent and 92.7-percent Snap Shares, 40 and 27 Routes, 8 and 5 Targets. Also, he has hit the OVER in each of these games and he’ll do so again when he matches up against PlayerProfiler.com’s No. 107-ranked cornerback, Chris Jackson.

I’m not sure why the Ezekiel Elliott line hasn’t adjusted, considering that Tony Pollard tore his left plantar facia last week. This line is low hanging fruit based on volume alone. While Washington is effective at defending against the run, they will be hard pressed to stop Ezekiel Elliott from going OVER 53.5 rushing yards in a divisional matchup with a 48 point game total.

This year, I’ve made hundreds of player prop picks week-after-week on Underdog Fantasy, netting thousands in profit. While anyone can make $1,000 by putting $50 on a Pick-5, it’s much more difficult to be sustainably profitable long-term.

I created this guide to help you do just that. It chronicles my revenge tour, time spent intensely researching player performance and the unique payout structure of platforms like Underdog Fantasy, where I was determined to find an edge for the 2021 season.

With how much preseason hype was surrounding Elijah Moore, I have been surprised at how quiet his second half breakout has been in the fantasy world. Moore quickly became Zach Wilson’s go-to after returning from injury. Earning a target on 34-percent of his routes run over the past two weeks and leading the team in targets in that same time frame. Moore will look to get fed more as his competition for targets has shrunk with Corey Davis missing the remainder of the season. The schedule for the Jets doesn’t scare anyone as Moore will continue to break out and bring some boom weeks.

Javonte Williams is shaping up to be the quintessential league winning running back. The ultimate breakout took place in Week 13 with Melvin Gordon inactive. Williams was the No. 1 running back in fantasy on the week. Racking up 102 rushing yards on 23 carries and topping it off with six receptions on nine targets for an additional 76 yards and a touchdown. With Gordon banged up, the door is open for Williams to take over and smash his way through an attractive schedule.

Terry McLaurin has now made the Paying Up section for two consecutive weeks. He has failed to score double digit fantasy points the past two weeks but should be able to rebound against an all or nothing Cowboys secondary. This game has shootout potential and McLaurin should be rostered everywhere, especially in tournament play.

Courtland Sutton showed some signs of life last week, cresting 100 Air Yards for the first time since Jerry Jeudy’s return to the lineup. However, he translated this opportunity into only 3.5 fantasy points, his worst weekly fantasy finish of the season. Sutton remains a full blown dart throw heading into Week 14, even with the Broncos facing an exploitable Lions secondary.

With the field salivating over the Buccaneers Bills game, let’s identify the best leverage points in order to build tournament winning upside lineups. Paying up for Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill creates a unique stack opportunity on discounted popularity with the highest ceiling on the slate. Or look to the Cowboys with Michael Gallup as a central piece of the offense still priced in the mid $5k range as part of a Dak Prescott stack.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Although they come in at No. 5 and No. 3 on the index, Antonio Gibson and Leonard Gibson are both cash game and tournament viable, although both are preferred in tournaments. Darrel Williams, Adrian Peterson, and Zack Moss are not involved enough in the offense outside of the 10-yard line to be trusted in your lineups this week. 

Vegas predicts that the divisional matchup between Tampa Bay and Atlanta will be the highest scoring game of the weekend, with a 50.5-point total. And the beloved Cordarrelle Patterson will be the beneficiary, hitting the OVER with ease. Patterson is one of the most efficient “running backs” in the NFL. His 12.2 (No. 1 among qualified running backs) Yards Per Reception and 6.8 (No. 1) Yards Per Touch will be on full display against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.

Ja’Marr Chase is coming to smash the OVER in another game with a high total of 49.5 points. Three of the past four games were blowout victories for the Bengals, which have contributed to Chase’s subpar receiving yards. On the contrary, the competitive matchup against the Chargers will provide more opportunity for Chase to rack up yards with his 99.4-percent (No. 2) Route Participation and 41.6-percent (No. 4) Air Yards Share. 

The Bucs tend to pressure opposing teams into passing by running up the score. Since opposing offenses have mostly abandoned the run, the Bucs are allowing a league-high 71-percent Pass Percentage. They also allow a 75-percent (No. 3) Passing TD Percentage. Matt Ryan himself is inexpensive ($5,600) and his counterparts are as well (Kyle Pitts at $5,600 and Russell Gage at $5,300). Paying down for Ryan gives you a great way to approach the game ranked No. 3 in Pace of Play.

With Darren Waller listed doubtful with a variety of injuries, the public will be drawn to Foster Moreau. A leverage play tight-end from the same game is the Football Team’s Logan Thomas. In games he’s started, he averages an elite 20.9-percent Air Yards Share (31.3-percent in Week 12). He makes a great low-rostered pairing with Taylor Heinicke with the Raiders having been had by opposing tight ends, ranking No. 5 in aFPA.

Pick your poison. Chargers-Bengals is the highest scoring game on the slate with two defenses susceptible to the running back in different ways: one on the ground, one in the air. Both running backs have the opposite team’s kryptonite. Austin Ekeler has been on fire, accumulating 14.22 points in the air over the last five games and 17.9 over the previous three. As for Joe Mixon, he is the third-highest scoring running back on the slate, just two points less per game than Ekeler.

Jonathan Taylor should continue his rampage on the ground. Look for the Colts to get Michael Pittman more involved as we close in on the playoffs. With the Colts in comeback mode, Brevin Jordan against one of the worst secondaries facing tight ends in 2021 is an appetizing play as he forced Jordan Akins to the inactive list. Pharaoh Brown is still the lead tight end, but he’s obviously there to block. I’m predicting over 30 yards and a touchdown to the rookie. Nico Collins has a similar outlook.