DFS

Terry McLaurin makes his season debut on the Air Yards Value Index. He is coming off a game where he failed to crest double digit fantasy points against a exploitable Seattle secondary. While his matchup this week against the Raiders is less appealing, McLaurin should continue to see copious volume in Washington’s offense. He is averaging 111 Air Yards on the season and is tops in the league in Air Yards Share.

Marvin Jones hasn’t posted more than double digits fantasy points since Week 6 when he finished as the WR9 posting 23 fantasy points. However he has averaged over 6 targets per game and seen at least 50 Air Yards per game since this time. With the Jaguars likely playing catchup against a high powered Ram offense, Jones makes for a great run-back option in Week 13 if you are stacking Rams in your tournament lineup.

As heavy favorites at expensive salaries (over 16K for the stack), the Matthew Stafford-Cooer Kupp pair should go under-rostered relative to upside. The Rams are tied for the highest implied total on the slate at over 30 points. Working in our favor is the fact that this a team that doesn’t take their foot off the gas when winning.

Tua Tagovailoa isn’t throwing as deep as Matthew Stafford, only 6.6 (No. 34 among qualified quarterbacks) Air Yards per Attempt, but is completing passes at an elite level. His 75.3-percent True Completion Percentage ranks No. 2, while he’s also top five in completion percentage in the redzone, clean pockets, and off play action. With nearly a $1K price jump over the last two weeks, Jaylen Waddle looks like an excellent Buy High opportunity this week as other fantasy gamers balk at the increase.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Not any cash plays in the index but a handful of tournament pivots off of popular cash game plays. Josh Jacobs for Elijah Mitchell or Myles Gaskin for Jamaal Williams could make sense in tournaments, especially large field ones where looking to be different.

Cam Newton and Robby Anderson are BACK. Anderson has averaged 6 targets and 4.5 receptions on a 20-percent Target Share in his last two games without Sam Darnold. Also, the matchup is prime for Anderson because Miami ranks last in receiving yards and receptions allowed. The probability of Anderson hitting the OVER is strong when considering his current trajectory in the Carolina offense in conjunction with the leaky Miami defense.

Take the OVER on Trevor Lawrence in a bounce back game against Atlanta. Lawrence hit the UNDER on this line in his past three games against Buffalo, Indianapolis and San Francisco, but Atlanta’s defense is one of the friendliest to opposing quarterbacks, ranking dead last in quarterback pressures and No. 30 in opponent completion percentage. As a result, Lawrence will not be hamstrung by his dreadful 29.4-percent (No. 34 among qualified quarterbacks) Pressured Completion Percentage.

You can mix Miles Sanders into Giants-Eagles game stacks after he registered a season-high in carries with his second-most red zone attempts, returning from his first game since getting injured. His pricing alone makes for a sexy play, not to mention the Giants rank No. 28 against the running back. He is just $100 above Chuba Hubbard and $200 above Giovani Bernard and Mike Davis. 

The Bucs have allowed 13 receiving touchdowns to only six rushing touchdowns on the year. The Carson Wentz-Michael Pittman connection will be alive and well. Not only does Pittman have 81 (No. 17 among qualified wide receivers) targets, he also has 11 (No. 16) red zone targets and 516 (No. 11) Completed Air Yards. Regardless of who is in coverage, Pittman is going to eat. 

A week removed from a top three QB finish (30.8 DKPt), Jalen Hurts projects as the QB2. While the trio of rushing touchdowns against New Orleans was a bit of a fluke, Hurts’ QB1 upside is not. Expect a lot of plays to be run on both sides of the ball as this game leads the slate in Pace of Play. Pair Hurts with DeVonta Smith or Dallas Goedert or run him solo but whatever you do, don’t fade him.

With Cam Newton injected back into the Panther’s offense, Robby Anderson is back in the conversation. With Newton, Anderson has nearly matched D.J. Moore with a 20-percent Target Share and Receptions (9). The Dolphins can be had over the top too, as they rank dead last in explosive plays (20 plus yards downfield). At only $4,700 and projecting to be hardly owned, there are worse spots to find this kind of upside.

Devonta Smith cooled off last week posting only 10.1 fantasy points against Marshon Lattimore and the Saints. However, Smith has averaged 14.5 Fantasy Points Per Game over the past four weeks. Up against another top corner in James Bradberry, Smith may find it difficult to post more the 20 FPPG like he did in Weeks 9 and 10, however his floor remains high based on his share of Air Yards in the Eagles offense. He is a recommended play in all formats.

Courtland Sutton’s vanishing act since Jerry Jeudy’s return is outright alarming. In games that Jeudy has not played in this season, Sutton has averaged 146 Air Yards. In the games that Jeudy has played, that average plummets to 43 Air Yards. He has been outgained in Air Yards the past two games by both Tim Patrick and Jeudy. Sutton is a tournament dart throw this week.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

The index showcases low-dollar running backs that are getting high-value touches inside the 10-yard line. The smaller slate leads to less available options to consider. Aaron Jones, Myles Gaskin, and Darrell Henderson make for interesting tournament plays this week. Jeff Wilson and Jordan Howard are players to remove from your player pool.

On a slate notably lacking in QB star power, strategy must be adjusted for building GPP tournament lineups. By paying up for Tom Brady, fantasy gamers unlock a floor and ceiling combo not possible with any other QB. Paying down for Cam Newton will be more popular, but by stacking him with D.J. Moore, leverage is available on those looking to only play Newton for his rushing.

With three games on the docket, the pickings are slim on a short Thanksgiving slate. At the quarterback position, Josh Allen is the clear-cut top option and is worth the spend-up. After bodying DFS lineups in a surprising flop performance against the Colts, expect a bounce-back game against a Saints team that has allowed a lot of fantasy points to the quarterback this season (No. 7) but especially over the past four weeks (No. 1 in points allowed).

With the questions surrounding the Cowboys offensive weapons, consider a complete dart throw in tight end Sean McKeon. With Blake Jarwin shelved on IR, the second-year tight end has seen a slight uptick in playing time. Dallas should run more two tight end sets in support of the run-heavy Game Script, which would put him on the field more. McKeon is athletic given his 93rd-percentile Vertical Jump and 78th-percentile Speed Score. At the stone minimum $2,500 10 DKPt gives us tournament-winning upside.