DFS

With the news that Aaron Rodgers will miss Sunday’s game after testing positive for COVID-19, Jordan Love becomes our Upside Finder’s top play at quarterback. Love checks all the boxes we love in an upside-streamer: he’s bargain-priced, has a great matchup, and has a solid supporting cast. Near the minimum price, his $4400 tag only requires him to score around 18 DKPt for tournament viability. This value also opens up pricey spend-ups at other positions as well.

Having the Broncos stack not pan out last week would dissuade some from chasing matchups but I love pain. The Dolphins rank dead last in Passing Yards Allowed and Sack Percentage (304 Passing Yards Per Game/ 3.58-percent Sack Rate). Brandin Cooks gets one of the best matchups on the slate yet projects under 2-percent ownership. His 41.9-percent Air Yards Share leads the league at the position and his 29.2-percent Target Share is also good for No. 6. My stack preference here is a Texans skinny stack with a Mike Gesicki runback.

Since returning from injury, Tua Tagovailoa is on pace to throw the second most passes per game. In a dream matchup against the Texans this week, pair him with Jaylen Waddle for maximum upside in GPP tournaments. Also explore a leverage option by paying up for the Cowboys to avoid Amari Cooper chalk.

The Titans-Colts matchup is always the highest scoring. However, two of the past three have hit at least 51 points. Aside from Jonathan Taylor, it’s typically the studs from each team who garner the points. Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman, and T.Y. Hilton generally are the players who succeed in these matchups. However, with all the injuries to both teams, it’s tough to predict who will be successful on either side. 

Chris Godwin could smash against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson while Mike Evans struggles against Marshon Lattimore like he typically does. Tom Brady is in play primarily because the Saints run defense is elite. There aren’t too many situations where Brady doesn’t rack up fantasy points. If Winston turns the ball over a ton, Brady could have five touchdowns. If this DFS Week 8 matchup becomes a shootout, Brady could have five touchdowns. The only way he doesn’t is if the Saints run defense falters. 

At first glance it seems crazy to take the UNDER on Joe Burrow, who just torched the Ravens for 416 yards. Not only does Burrow rank bottom-4 with 30.4 Team Pass Plays Per Game, but also the Jets have been playing from behind more than any other team, shown by a -11.65 Game Script score. Consequently, the Under on a passing yards line is encouraged when the opposing team has a poor offense. 

Jalen Hurts will put the team on his back by effectively moving the ball through the air and on the ground against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Hurts has a high-rushing floor, accounting for 44.19-percent of the Eagles’ rushing yards. Also, his 361 rushing yards ranks No. 2 among all QBs this season. His rushing ability will be on full display against a Lions defense is bottom-12 in rushing yards allowed per game. And when it comes to defending the pass, the Lions aren’t much better, allowing the 8th most passing yards to offenses through Week 8.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Jonathan Taylor, Najee Harris, and Leonard Fournette face some of the top rushing defenses in the league. This means that their floor will be lower than if they were facing weak opponents, but their work inside the 10-yard line gives them upside, where they could score a couple of touchdowns and boost your DFS lineup this week. Zack Moss is a GPP play because he doesn’t get enough volume to be viable for cash. Remove Mike Davis from your player pool. 

Here’s Jeudy! Well, hopefully! Jerry Jeudy looks to be on track to play Sunday in his first game of action since being injured in Week 1. Although there isn’t much to go on as far as his metrics (for this season) we do know he led all Bronco receivers with a 21.2-percent Target Share in 2020. We also know his opposition this week is playing really bad football.

Josh Allen checks in as our top ranked quarterback and looks to be it at the position. Priced up to $8,100 (as he should be), Allen is in a fantastic spot facing the Miami Dolphins. The Bills have the slate’s highest implied team total (31.5) and one of the best matchups for quarterbacks to boot. No clowning around, pair him with his favorite target, Stefon Diggs, who’s seeing a massive 26.4-percent (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share.

Courtland Sutton reclaims the top spot of the Air Yards Value List after a WR31 finish against the Browns in an island game where he saw only 56 Air Yards. Now priced $200 more than when he was last on the main slate, Sutton remains a recommended play in all formats. He is set to remain the Broncos focal point on offense with Jerry Jeudy yet to practice and squares off against a exploitable Washington secondary.

For the second consecutive week, Devonta Smith tops the Air Yards Value List for players priced $5,500 and under. Last week, Smith didn’t live up to the hype with the Eagles offense imploding against the Raiders. He posted only 11.1 fantasy points despite seeing 108 Air Yards. This week, he has what appears to be a much easier matchup against the Lions secondary. However, the risk remains of a offensive implosion a kneecap-biting Lions squad. I’d be more apt to play Smith in cash as opposed to tournaments, but some limited exposure in GPP’s may pay off nicely.

D.J. Moore has arrived as an elite, alpha receiver in 2021. He ranks No. 6 in Target Share, and No. 11 in Air Yards Share. While he’s suffered from inconsistent quarterback play, the chance to play Moore in an elite matchup projected under ten-percent ownership is an opportunity you cannot pass up. Diontae Johnson is eternally under-owned in DFS despite a 29-percent Target Share. While the matchup is not as juicy as Moore’s, Johnson has a role worth well above his $6,700 salary and few project to be paying for it.

This week offers another opportunity to test our heuristics on bring backs. Cincinnati, Buffalo, and the Rams are all among the best projected teams on the slate in games with spreads above ten points. Should you play both sides of these games or merely stick to the favourite? With the caveat that each play should be viewed in a vacuum, I think the answers spread widely here.

Tom Brady has taken a blow torch to opposing pass defenses this year, yet there’s still some lagging skepticism among DFS players. Capitalize by playing one of the highest floor and ceiling plays, paired with his slot WR Chris Godwin in a plus matchup this week against the Saints. Alternatively, get leverage off the popular high end WR plays by stacking Justin Herbert with Mike Williams in another of the league’s pass happiest offenses.

You can almost set your watch to Lamar Jackson generating more than 300 yards per game because he has done it in five out of six games this year. He’s doing it through the air (281.0 passing yards per game) and on the ground (65.3 rushing yards per game).While last week’s shocking blowout victory over the Chargers stifled his production, I believe that a divisional matchup with the Bengals will highlight premier Lamar Jackson.

The Cordarrelle Patterson experience is just getting started, so strap in and go hard on this soft line. Patterson averaged 11.25 Total Touches Week 5. Enter Week 6, where his Total Touches spiked to 23. If this usage continues, then he will smash with his 7.1 Yards Per Touch (No. 1 among qualified RB’s) and Underdog Fantasy will have to set his line closer to 90 yards for Week 7.