DFS

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

D’Andre Swift and Darrel Williams are my two favorite running backs to use in cash games this week due to their usage inside the 10-yard line along with their floor created by being targeted frequently. Aaron Jones, Ezekiel Elliott, and Devontae Booker are running backs I would include in my player pool when setting tournament lineups for Week 6. 

A.J. Brown’s hamstring looks good for Sunday and so does this line. Jacksonville allows 312.2 passing yards per game, the 3rd most in the NFL. The Titans will look to exploit this, as they run an above average 38.0 Team Pass Plays Per Game (No. 10). Brown will return to an elevated target share, with the absence of Julio Jones, resulting in more opportunities to beat cornerback Shaquill Griffin. Griffin, with his +8.5 Coverage Rating (No. 85 among qualified CBs), is going to get torched by Brown.

Justin Herbert will be tested against Cleveland, a team with a strong defense and an offense that controls the time of possession. The Browns allow only 183.8 pass yards per game and have 14.0 sacks through Week 4, making the case strong to take the under on a passing yards line. Cleveland’s offense will provide a challenge for Herbert to eclipse 292.5 passing yards because they run league high 35.0 Team Run Plays Per Game (No. 1) with a slow 1.87 Pace Of Play, which limits the time of possession and total drives for opposing offenses. I’ll let the Chargers’ strength and conditioning coach cut my hair if Herbert is somehow able to produce over 292.5 passing yards.

We saw late last year that Cleveland is willing to play a higher-pace, pass-first style if drawn into it by a high-octane opponent and the Chargers could be that team. The Chargers are among the fastest-paced, most pass-heavy teams in the league this year and concentrate targets heavily between four players. I’m willing to stack the Cleveland side of this game with Mayfield, Beckham and Austin Hooper, or to roll out a Chargers stack with Chubb. I’m also quite interested in Mike Williams as a contrarian tournament option.

With the Bengals potentially losing Joe Mixon this week, I expect Cincinnati to build on their progression last week and turn in their most pass-heavy game-plan of 2021. All three Bengals wideouts are under $6000 and I will be playing each. I expect the lowest owned to be Ja’Marr Chase given the highest price ($5800), although its possible Tee Higgins comes in under his ownership projection in his first game back from injury. At just $5000 he’s one of the best values on the slate.

Trevor Lawrence has the easiest matchup of his season in terms of passing and recently discovered his love for playmaker Laviska Shenault. If he can put all three together, we could see a big Week 5. I am concerned about the Titans above-average pressure rate while forcing 20 hurries on the quarterback thus far. Lawrence has been dreadful with defenders in his face, with only a 31.3-percent (No. 29 among qualified quarterbacks) Pressured Completion Rate. However, if this forces him to run more often, I’m all for it. 

D’Andre Swift has and hasn’t been what we hoped for throughout the first four weeks. Against the Vikings, volume shouldn’t be an issue as they are giving up 119 total touches to the position. If Michael Pierce misses time, this DFS Week 5 matchup could be even more enticing. As for Justin Jefferson, I don’t know how you can fade either one. With Kirk Cousins and the offense coming off a bad week, this is the perfect opportunity for a bounce back. Cousins hasn’t put up two sub par performances consecutively since 2019. Don’t expect it to happen against the Lions, regardless of how far they pull ahead.

Prescott has tossed ten Touchdown Passes (No. 3), seven of which have come in the two games. His 78-percent True Completion Percentage (No. 3) is quite impressive as well, especially at 33.25 Attempts Per Game. The Giants have allowed 7 Passing Touchdowns (No. 5) and 23.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (No. 10). It’s time to go back to Dak.

Dalton Shultz is a nice pivot off the chalky Dallas receivers. The Prescott/Shultz stack is an interesting pairing considering Shultz’ low 6.3-percent projected ownership. Shultz is coming off back to back games seeing Target Shares of 28 and 37.5-percent.

Since relieving the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinicke has been a fantasy revelation. He’s finished as a top 12 QB  in each of his three starts. Yet despite this, DraftKings won’t budge on his sub $6k price. Heinicke is cheap and has been productive through the air and on the ground. By pairing him with his favorite target, you can expect a solid target floor with plenty of ceiling, as we saw last week. With McLaurin’s bump in price, he also becomes an intriguing leverage point off some more popular WRs in the same price range (D.J. Moore and Deebo Samuel in particular).

Tampa’s league-leading 3.14 Pace of Play fuels all of their volume and allows Tom Brady to keep playing at a high level. This week, they have one of the highest implied team totals, and have shown a willingness to continue throwing both near the goal line and when leading in games. We’re paying up for the more expensive of the lead WRs with Mike Evans. Between Evans and Chris Godwin, we’re making a play for ceiling given their respective roles.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

This is a strange week for running backs with many of the top running backs, not on the Sunday main slate. D’Andre Swift, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris, and Mark Ingram are players to have in the player pool for tournaments provided they are active and healthy. Swift and Harris can be used in cash lineups due to limited options at running back on the main slate.

After last week’s dud performance, Brandin Cooks is now $300 cheaper on DraftKings, but still number one on the Air Yards Value List. As THE passing game on a poor Texans offense, last week’s five-reception, 47-yard scoreless performance can be expected on occasion. However, he still saw 83 Air Yards on a day where Davis Mills threw only 191 Air Yards. While J.C. Jackson, and the Patriots secondary presents another tough matchup, he should be confidently inserted into lineups across all formats again this week.

Courtland Sutton leads the league with 10 Deep Targets, and is currently seeing a 17.7 (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance. He also is near the league lead in Unrealized Air Yards. Regardless of whether Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock is throwing him the ball this week, he should be a lock for tournament lineups. He makes for a perfect contrarian play facing off against the Steelers defense.

Jaylen Waddle is primed to deliver free money for those willing to take the Over 49.5 receiving yards line on Underdog Fantasy. Waddle’s Target Share has risen dramatically since Jacoby Brissett became the starting QB in Week 3.

Noah Fant will bounce back when he matches up against a Baltimore team that has allowed the most receiving yards to TE’s through Week 3. Targets will funnel to Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton because the Broncos are without another WR, after K.J. Hamler tore his ACL last week against the Jets.

For GPP tournaments with heavily weighted payout structures, it’s not enough to find high scoring players. You need to find points where others aren’t getting them. Where some fantasy gamers have moved off pre-season favorites who have underwhelmed, we see an opportunity for contrarian upside. We stack lowly rostered teams because that gives us the chance to find leverage and score where others aren’t.

In a week where it’s tempting to extrapolate the first few games of the season, it’s important to cut through the noise when building your daily fantasy football lineups. We expect a pass heavy game plan for the Cowboys this week which means a Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper stack are in play. We also look at why the advanced stats say to stick with Stefon Diggs even as his price holds steady.