DFS

Through a three week sample we can definitively say Cooper Kupp is ahead of Robert Woods. It would take a role swap in the opposite direction to even things out moving forward. However, like a falling knife, the gap between Woods and Kupp in price and ownership widens at an even faster rate than the gap in projection. With $2,500 between them, I am inclined to play Mr. Woods in more lineups once again, but I will make room for Kupp.

Derrick Henry chalk week is upon us. With both lead Titans receivers declared out, Henry is set to expand his already expanded pass game role. You can play Henry by all means, but if you want leverage off him, my favourite play is Anthony Firkser. The artist known as Firk-a-Licious is healthy this week, and at just $3,100, could viably lead the team in targets. He also plays more in passing situations so he’s a direct bet against Henry’s preferred script.

You should take shots with both Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray in your lineups. With the injury to DeAndre Hopkins, Murray had his worst game of the season but was still able to accumulate 22.54 points. He could again rely more on his legs in a competitive contest against the Rans. The Cardinals let Kirk Cousins ring up three touchdowns on only 32 passes in Week 2. Assuming the Rams will have to pass, Stafford with three touchdowns will pay off his cost. So the issue becomes: is there upside? 

Jalen Hurts was set up to fail in Week 3, and if the Eagles have any chance of beating the Chiefs, they have to get him in better third down situations by running the ball on first and second with a running back. As for the Chiefs side, Patrick Mahomes should have no problem picking apart this defense. My hesitancy comes in whether or not the Eagles can keep this competitive. In addition, can the Eagles get pressure on Mahomes who has a 36.8-percent (No. 26 among qualified quarterbacks) Pressured Completion Percentage and has suffered from a 31.3-percent (No. 25) Deep Ball Completion Percentage?

After burning countless parlays in back to back weeks, the Chiefs look to get right this week with a visit to Philadelphia. Patrick Mahomes has yet to pay off his exorbitant price tag in recent weeks despite throwing for at least three passing touchdowns in each start. Mahomes’ 8.0-percent Touchdown Rate, 313 Passing Yards Per Game and nine passing touchdowns all rank top five at the position. Jalen Hurts should also do enough to keep the game competitive.

Alvin Kamara is always in play. His 77.6-percent (No. 6) Opportunity Share and 23.0-percent (No. 1) Target Share are elite. His opponent this week, the Giants, have allowed the second most receiving yards to running backs this season. You need some Kamara exposure.

There are three certain things in life: death, taxes, and Brandin Cooks being undervalued in fantasy football. Cooks is THE passing game for the Texans amassing a league leading 57.8-percent Air Yards Share. It doesn’t matter if it is Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills throwing him the football, Cooks is seeing the volume to confidently be deployed in all DFS formats. He is currently the WR6 on the season but only priced as 16th highest receiver on DraftKings.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling finally boomed in week three finishing as a top 24 WR on the week after hauling in three receptions for 59 yards and a touchdown. He may have had a bigger week if he was not forced to leave the game with a hamstring injury. Unfortunately, Valdes-Scantling’s hamstring has sidelined him at practice thus far this week. Assuming he is able to go on Sunday he should still be considered a boom bust DFS option as the hamstring may hobble him

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Ezekiel Elliott had a bounce-back after the fantasy community was ready to write him off for Tony Pollard. Suddenly, he is No. 8 in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line per game, yet less expensive than other options such as Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb, players that are averaging close to what Elliott is now averaging inside the 10-yard line. This week against Carolina, Elliott is a player to have in your pool for tournaments for touchdown upside, but is not the safest play for cash games.

With a salary of $5,800 and a projected 23.5 DK point total, Daniel Jones (aka DANNY KONAMI) represents the VALUE FINDER’s favorite play this week. Cheap QBs with rushing upside projected will usually rank near the top of this list. Of them, Jones faces the worst defense and has shown the most rushing upside to this point, a large part of the reasons he currently ranks as the QB5 (!) in Fantasy Points per Game. Now he draws Atlanta’s “defense.” YOU know what to do.

Odell Beckham is back, but Anthony Schwartz should still be on the DFS radar as a punt play to save salary. His routes may have dropped last week, but his snaps increased. If these two numbers can meet in the middle, and Schwartz can haul in a deep bomb for at least one score, he may be on pace to nail his UPSIDE PROJECTION of 18.06 DraftKings points (at a $3,200 salary). He did have 126 Air Yards (No. 10 among WRs) in Week 1.

Some good chalk I’m feeling this week includes rostering Kyler Murray at quarterback. It may seem like an obvious play because it is. He has been the QB2 and QB1 on back to back slates but projects as only the seventh-highest owned quarterback. Murray being the QB1 after two weeks isn’t as much a surprise as the way he’s put it together. It seems whether by matchup or game plan, the Cardinals have been willing to let Murray sling it.

The Podfather expects big things out of T.J. Hockenson this season and I’m expecting big things this week. Playing on a Lions team with fringe-NFL receiver talent has benefited Hockenson and given new teammate Jared Goff a reliable target. Goff has looked his his way often especially around the goal line, where Hockenson is tied for the second most Red Zone Targets among tight ends.

85.5 Receiving Yards is steep, but the 54.5 Over/Under suggests that there will be plenty of chances for Keenan Allen to rack up receiving yards. Allen has amassed 21 Targets (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) and 239 Air Yards (No. 10), so he will have ample opportunity to compile yards against the Chiefs who have allowed the second most yards to offenses through Week 2.

The Law of the Conservation of Targets dictates that Kyle Pitts will see increased target volume with the absence of Russell Gage. Already, Pitts has seen an impressive 18.4-percent (No. 6) Target Share and the loss of Gage will do nothing but improve this volume. It’s hard to imagine Frank Darby or Tajae Sharpe siphoning targets from Pitts, which is why I’m confidently taking the OVER in a game with a decent over/under at 46.5.

Last week’s late-swap oriented strategy went belly up. But I think there is a case to go back to the well if the Dalvin Cook situation comes down to the wire. With only two strong game environments in the late window, many will steer clear of the Vikings backfield if we don’t have any clarity when people finalize their lineups. If this occurs, we can expect Cook or Alexander Mattison to be among the best projected plays on the slate and under-owned. Giving yourself the ability to take advantage either way is profiting from uncertainty.

It is fascinating to see which usage trends the market buys into and which they are selling after two weeks. Robert Woods has fallen behind Cooper Kupp in the Rams pecking order thus far, but his Week 2 usage was actually strong in a vacuum. He is now $1100 cheaper than Kupp, and projected for nearly half the ownership. Meanwhile, for Los Angeles’ other franchise, Mike Williams has looked every bit a co-alpha alongside Keenan Allen. Draftkings has responded, with only a $200 gap in salary. Nonetheless, ownership is projected to remain much heavier on Allen.

The matchup with Minnesota looks better for Russell Wilson at first glance. However, he has only scored 1.5 more points per game on DraftKings than Kirk Cousins. Now you have two quarterbacks more evenly matched. However, the pricing is not. Although Wilson might slightly have the edge in expected points score, the pricing is not. By pivoting down to Cousins you save $1,300, which is the difference between Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins or Christian Kirk: Massive. This makes Cousins an ideal quarterback for the DFS Week 3 matchups.

The Buccaneers/Rams may mirror the Cowboys/Chargers game from Week 2. Significant assumed point total, two underrated defenses, and two brilliant systems on both sides of the ball. However, I’m still attacking this game. From what we have seen so far, both secondaries seem to be the weaknesses of these teams. Carlton Davis and Jalen Ramsey are the only players who you don’t want to attack for this game in these DFS Week 3 matchups. However, predicting their roles in these games is difficult.