DFS

If I had one regret last week, it was not opting for a Chiefs double-stack. Given the attraction of Cardinals-Titans and Eagles-Falcons, the Chiefs became underplayed relative to their upside and projection. Ultimately I made the choice to avoid lineups that forced me into playing multiple, cheap chalk receivers such as Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore, and Marquez Callaway. However, with viable options such as Jaylen Waddle available and productive at low ownership, it was worth attempting.

I don’t know if you’ve heard, but the Chargers-Cowboys game may be high scoring this week. With an over-under of 54.5 and a tight spread, DFS players from near and far are making the pilgrimage to jam Chargers and Cowboys into their DraftKings lineups this week. In early week PFF ownership projections, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, and Ceedee Lamb all rank among the top four rostered receivers. The first decision you need to make for each lineup this week is whether this game will be the focus of your entry. The rest of your lineup needs to be constructed around that basis from an ownership perspective.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it? We’re going right back to the Eagles this week. After smashing on Sunday, DraftKings raised Jalen Hurts’ price by only $100 to $6.5k. Devonta Smith received more of a price bump, but at $5.4k he’s still too cheap as the top option in this offense. DraftKings seems to not want to overreact to Week 1 with salaries, so take advantage in situations where we feel more confident coming out of last week.

This week when everyone is on Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb or Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, paying up slightly to pivot onto the Bills provides an appealing leverage point in tournaments. Another way to pivot off of chalky expensive stacks is to totally alter the structure of your lineup. By paying all the way down at $5.1K for Zach Wilson and $5.3K for WR1 Corey Davis, you free up copious salary to play other high end players the field can’t afford due to their stack.

Washington’s front-7 is going to eat the Giants’s offensive line alive, which does not bode well for anyone in the Giants offense, particularly Saquon Barkley. Sterling Shepard looks to be the WR1 in this offense, and should be peppered with targets along with teammate Kenny Golladay, who will see an enticing matchup this week against the 99th ranked cornerback.

Taylor Heinicke is more efficient than most realize, and is more than capable of leading this team to wins and productive fantasy outings. With Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, and Logan Thomas all seeing impressive opportunity metrics last week, fantasy gamers should be trusting them in their lineups against a mid-tier defense and an overall dumpster fire of a team.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Coming off of back-to-back 1000 yard rushing seasons, Lamar Jackson’s playmaking with his legs balances out his lack of passing opportunity, productivity, and efficiency. With injuries to J.K. Dobbins (ACL), Rashod Bateman (groin), and Gus Edwards (ACL), once again Jackson will be forced to offset the losses with his legs.

The only receiving option to start for the Raiders is Darren Waller. Ravens allowed 120 targets and 82 receptions to the tight end position in 2020. Both finished in the 12th-highest amounts among defenses according to Pro-Football-Reference. Waller is the only certainty in the Raiders’ offense and finished with more top-5 performances (9) than games outside the top-5 (7).

Jalen Hurts OVER 283.5 total yards is my highest confidence play of the slate because it has all of the ingredients for it to hit. Hurts averaged 361 total yards per game in the three full games he played last year. He will move the the ball with ease against one of the worst defenses in the league. Add in a points total of 49.0 and this game has the perfect recipe an offensive showdown.

Russell Wilson will cook and Tyler Lockett will eat. Lockett had 492 (54.4-percent rate) Slot Snaps in 2020, therefore it should be easy for him to find room to operate against the zone heavy defense employed by the Colts. Additionally, Xavier Rhodes will miss this matchup, making the case for Lockett even stronger. Plus, this game has a high points total at 49.0, so I love the opportunity Lockett has to smash the Over.

At the beginning of a new season with uncertain target distributions, take bold stabs at prolific QBs and upside WRs for your stacks to gain leverage on the field through uniquely correlated roster construction in DFS tournaments. Jalen Hurts and new WR1 Devonta Smith provide just one tantalizing example.

The Jalen Hurts-Devonta Smith stack checks every box listed above and costs under $11k on DraftKings this week. In the dome in Atlanta, this game features a 48.5 over under total. Smith looks like the number one wideout in Philadelphia, but enters Week 1 as the fourth-cheapest team WR1 by PlayerProfiler projection and second-cheapest team WR1 by DK salary. Take advantage of the value while DK and other fantasy gamers worry about the rookie translating to the NFL and a nebulous Target Share.

Looking back to 2020, there was only one time a stack with a quarterback-pass catcher won the Millionaire Maker and the combined point total was 50 points or less: Week 8 when the Chiefs destroyed the Jets 35-9. There’s plenty of ways to find these players and matchups, whether it be the perfect positional advantages, bad defenses meeting incredible offenses, or two great quarterbacks going head to head. Finding these matchups is key to building the start to a great roster.

The Air Yards leader of 2020 appears posed to repeat as the Air Yards king in 2021. Calvin Ridley enters his first NFL season without Julio Jones as his teammate, and last seasons time without Julio on the field foretells a huge fantasy season incoming. Ridley averaged 160 Air Yards in the contests the Julio did not play in 2020 and averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. Ridley should feast on Arizona’s injury riddle secondary and is THE wide receiver to spend big on at Draftkings.

Marvin Jones is the only wide receiver on this list to have changed teams. Moving from the top receiver on the depth chart after Kenny Golladay’s injury in Detroit, to competing for targets with D.J. Chark, and Laviska Shenualt, Jones will look to establish himself in the target pecking order in Week 1. It should shock no one if Jones is the preferred downfield target of Trevor Lawrence as opposed to the more expensive D.J. Chark (DK: $5,800).

While I’m high on Ryan Tannehill, Kyler Murray’s upside shouldn’t go overlooked in this potential shootout. Murray’s 67-percent Red Zone Completion Percentage and 24.4 Fantasy Points Per Game are good for third-best among qualified quarterbacks. The Titans low-key allowed the second-most touchdown passes (only the Lions allowed more) to opposing quarterbacks last season (36).  

The Falcons and Eagles allowed the most and ninth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last season. Devonta Smith’s 34.6-percent Target Share at Alabama last year gives us a clear run-back option on the Eagles side of the ball. The Matt Ryan/Calvin Ridley/Kyle Pitts/Devonta Smith stack is very intriguing.