DFS

Given his 6.0 (No. 105 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance mark and history of rushing production, Curtis Samuel should dominate short-area work and get double-digit touches against this shorthanded Denver defense. He’s been among the most efficient fantasy players this season with 2.33 (No. 9) Fantasy Points per Target and a +32.2 percent (No. 9) Target Premium. The stars are aligning for Samuel to have a career day.

Stone-minimum punt plays always help relieve salary in cash. With Denzel Mims out and Jamison Crowder highly questionable, Braxton Berrios presents the best punt option across all positions. The Seahawks have given up a ridiculous 229 receptions and 2,707 yards to receivers this year, easily the most in the NFL. The Jets are massive 13.5-point underdogs, so we can project plenty of negative Game Script.

Calvin Ridley again appears in the Paying Up section, making it three weeks in a row. Last week against a tough Saints defense, Ridley finished as the WR24 on the week with five receptions for 108 yards. He out-gained Julio Jones in both yards and Air Yards, posting 186 Air Yards to Jones’ 109 Air Yards. With Jones ruled out for Week 14’s matchup against the Chargers, Ridley will look to dominate the targets and Air Yards in the Falcons passing attack. However, his ceiling is lowered without Jones on the field.

A.J. Green has been left off the value list for a while now despite scoring high in the model. However, after 14 weeks, Green is finally priced at the stone cold minimum on DraftKings. While he appears to be dust at this point, he is still seeing plenty of snaps and routes in the Bengals offense. For a minimum price, he is a masochistic play if you are looking to pay up elsewhere.

Tyler Lockett is the most volatile fantasy football wide receiver in the league. He carries a Weekly Volatility mark of 14.4, showing extremely fantasy scoring oscillation. A true boom-or-bust archetype, Lockett looks primed for a breakout game against the Jets. And at a salary of $7,200 on DraftKings with low projected rostership, he’s a leverageable GPP asset.

Amari Cooper is being overlooked in a potential blowup spot with low projected rostership. The Andy Dalton revenge game narrative comes into play, with the quarterback facing his former team for the first time. If Dalton elevates his play against the Bengals, the Cowboys receivers benefit. And Cooper, who’s seen an increase in targets in each of his past four games, figures to be the biggest beneficiary and the lowest-rostered Cowboys receiver.

Corey Davis ranks No. 4 among qualified wide receivers with 11.4 Yards Per Target, while averaging 2.88 (No. 2) Yards Per Route Run with a 33.1-percent (No. 19) Air Yards Share. This week’s game has the second-highest over/under of the week, providing plenty of opportunity for another trip to the end zone against a Jaguars team that has allowed the fifth-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. At just $5,700 we can’t pass up the upside.

Will Fuller’s suspension, coupled with Kenny Stills’ release and Randall Cobb’s absence due to a foot injury, unlocked third-year wide receiver Keke Coutee. He finished as the WR8 in Week 13 with eight receptions for a career-high 141 yards. The depleted Texans wide receiver corps ensures Coutee will continue to be the recipient of a high Target Share over the next few weeks. His knack for explosive plays makes him a great play at $5,000, even in a matchup with the Bears. 

From a budget perspective, it takes effort to fit in both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen at over $7K each, but Kirk Cousins offers salary relief at only $6.2K. Without a doubt, this is a volatile strategy. It requires the perfect game conditions, but in a GPP, you’re shooting for scenarios that lead to 95th-percentile outcomes, which this game presents. Be sure to run it back with a Buccaneer to capture the full-on shootout upside.

At a $5.1K price, outside the top 25 at QB, Jalen Hurts doesn’t need to be flawless to return tournament-winning upside. If he does hit, this is the week to be on him before any price or ownership spikes. Jalen Reagor unquestionably has the most upside in the Philadelphia WR corps. Last week, we got a taste of the explosive rookie’s dynamism and 140.4 (98th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Burst Score with the punt return TD.

The Chiefs are most vulnerable on the ground, so Myles Gaskin will find efficiency on his 20-plus touches this week. Even if the Dolphins do fall behind in the second half, he’s seen 37 (No. 21 among qualified running backs) targets for a 14.4-percent (No. 7) Target Share and has a 54.6-percent (No. 10) Route Participation mark. Gaskin is a bona fide Game Script-independent workhorse and should crush this week.

Jonathan Taylor faces a Raiders defense that ranks No. 31 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and just let Ty Johnson rack up 104 yards and a score on the ground. A $5800 price is still difficult to stomach in cash, but that will keep Taylor’s tournament ownership low. Most DFS gamers will be focused on the Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler tier. Pivoting down to Taylor unlocks the Michael Thomas and Julio Jones tier of high-upside and underpriced WRs.

Kareem Hunt’s opportunity numbers are inflated by the time that Nick Chubb spent on IR, but he has still received double digit carries in every game this year. The matchup against Tennessee’s lackluster defense is intriguing as well. They have given up an average of 1.56 points above expectation at the running back position this year. It is hard to trust a secondary back without stellar receiving volume at $6,300 in cash, but Hunt is a great upside play for tournaments.

David Montgomery ranks top 10 in Opportunity Share with a large sample of games played, yet is priced among secondary and part time backs. He has a true featured role in the Chicago offense. In a plus matchup against the Lions, Montgomery is a near lock in cash with his touch volume. He is still a risk in tournaments as it is hard to envision high boom potential for any player in a Mitchell Trubisky-led offense.

Devontae Booker has flashed consistent efficiency while also sporting elite explosiveness with a dominant college profile. Given what he’s shown this season and the state of the Raiders backfield, he will dominate touches against a lifeless Jets team. New York is more of a pass-funnel defense, but Las Vegas is an 8.5-point favorite. They’ll dominate Game Script and Booker will be involved throughout the game. He opens up salary on a tight slate and projects extremely well.

Denzel Mims’ signature breakout game is coming. The speedy rookie has now seen eight targets and over 100 Air Yards in three straight games. He also has a 26.4-percent (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and a 38.6-percent (No. 8) Air Yards Share despite only five career NFL games played. It’s been tough sledding for Mims against the Patriots, Chargers, and Dolphins over the last three weeks, but now he draws the Raiders.

Typically we stay away from bad teams in props or fantasy, but this week there are only a few strong games to play. In Week 13, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman bring upper 90th-percentile Speed Scores up against a battered Las Vegas Raiders pass defense. Missing star safeties Johnathan Abram, and Lamarcus Joyner, and with both starting cornerbacks riding the injury report each of the last two weeks, expect Mims and Perriman to close in on 200 yards between them.

The Podfather’s Prop of the Week comes from Miami in Week 13, featuring the 2020 NFL Draft’s top two picks from the Dolphins and Bengals. Unfortunately, neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Joe Burrow will play on Sunday. Instead, we will see a battle between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Allen, where The Podfather sees the Dolphins defense putting the clamps on Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. 

D.K. Metcalf makes his first appearance on the Air Yards Value Index after balling out in an island game on Monday night to the tune of 10 receptions for 177 yards. Metcalf saw over 207 Air Yards last week. His ascension in the Seahawks passing game is happening. However, he faces a tough projected matchup in Week 13 against the Giants and James Bradberry. It will be interesting to see if he continues to be fed the rock despite this tough matchup, or if Russell Wilson focuses his attention toward Tyler Lockett.

Darius Slayton’s demise post Sterling Shepard’s return reached the lowest of lows last week. Slayton, despite 63 Air Yards, finished the week with zero fantasy points. With Giants backup quarterback Colt McCoy expected to start, things may not be looking up for Slayton anytime soon despite his Air Yards totals. However, with the Giants likely facing a negative Game Script against the heavily favored Seahawks, he may find himself some garbage time Air Yards and fantasy points.