DFS

Brandin Cooks has seen 57 targets over the last seven games, averaging six receptions and 83 yards per game over that stretch. This game against the Colts has an over/under of 51.5 points, opening the door for a ceiling game from Cooks. At $5,600, he presents massive upside compared to the guys near his price point.

Michael Pittman will continue to operate as the Colts’ No. 1 wide receiver against a Texans secondary that has allowed the 10th-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. This game is tied for the highest projected point total of the week, so the chances of it shooting out are high. Assuming Pittman gets back to the efficiency we saw prior to Week 12, he will deliver his best performance to date. At $4,900, we can’t pass on that type of upside. 

No stranger to the boom-or-bust life, Adam Thielen has scored two TDs in each of his past two games. He recorded 32.3 fantasy points in Week 12 and 20.2 in Week 11. Prior to that, however, he notched two straight games with five fantasy points. His up-and-down weekly oscillation distils out in the form of a 10.6 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility score. Primed to feast against the Jaguars, Thielen returns to his No. 1 role alongside talented rookie Justin Jefferson.

A volatile fantasy asset with an 8.4 (No. 23) Weekly Volatility mark, Allen finds himself on a hot streak. He’s scored in five consecutive games. Poised for another blowup game, Allen draws a beatable matchup against the Patriots. He faces primary coverage from Patriots cornerback Jonathan Jones, who’s allowed five TDs this season. It’s an exploitable matchup for Allen, who’s rostership projects to be lower than 10-percent.

After the murderer’s row of defenses to start the year, Deshaun Watson has been simply phenomenal. He should be a popular option this week without getting too chalky as players fear that imposing Colts defensive matchup. Instead of throwing darts at the backups with Keke Coutee, Isaiah Coulter, or the tight ends, go with Brandin Cooks. This game will be played in a dome with one of the only 50-plus point totals, and at only $5600, he will be among the cheapest WR1s available on the slate.

At only $5.4K, Mitchell Trubisky draws a matchup against a Lions team with a struggling defense that just fired their coach after getting torched by Deshaun Watson on Thanksgiving. The unquestioned alpha in the offense, Allen Robinson is the most sensible receiver to stack with Trubisky. Put it together and we have a stack featuring a running QB with his target magnet WR1 at discount prices in a dream matchup with low ownership due to brand.

David Montgomery is now at his second-lowest price of the season and has a soft matchup against Detroit. With a 44-point total, this game doesn’t project for many touchdowns. The good news is that the Lions have allowed 21 total touchdowns to RBs this season, easily the most in the NFL. Montgomery is a high-floor RB in a smash spot. When factoring in his price, he looks like one of the best RB values on the slate.

With the Colts being 3.5-point favorites over the Texans this week, Jonathan Taylor is set up for another 20 touches. This game has a 51-point total, which is the third-highest on the slate. The Texans also rank No. 27 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and have allowed the most rushing yards and touchdowns to RBs this season. Taylor has caught at least two balls in all but two games this season, boosting his floor and making him a viable play in cash lineups. This is the eruption spot we’ve been waiting for.

What do fantasy players do with Devin Singletary at this point? He keeps getting playing time and keeps performing terribly and losing touches. A home matchup against the Chargers could provide a bounce-back performance, and Singletary has plummeted down to $5,500. There is still enough upside and snaps to justify playing him in GPPs and cash games at that price despite the negative trends.

It is hard to rely on any player in a three way time split, but that is especially true if you are not confidently investing in the leader of the committee. Darrell Henderson is too expensive to play in cash with an uncertain touch floor at $5,900, even in a plus matchup against San Francisco, but he has the upside to be viable in tournaments.

Dalvin Cook enters Week 12 with 14 total touchdowns in nine games. He has scored in all but one contest, finishing with multiple scores in 4-of-9 outings. Carolina finished No. 32 against the run in 2019, allowing 30 touchdowns to running backs. 2020 hasn’t been much better. Through 11 weeks, Carolina ranks No. 27/No. 28 in touchdowns and yards allowed to running backs. 

The Podfather’s Prop of the Week comes from Buffalo in a game with a 53-point projected game total. In 2020, Buffalo has played in six games totaling over 50 points, while Los Angeles has played in seven such games. With key defensive pieces out in Week 12, The Chargers and Bills will turn to their young gunslingers and key on the passing game to gain an edge on each other Sunday.

Now entering Week 12 as the league leader in Air Yards, Calvin Ridley is set to smash against the Raiders. Some DFS players may be shy to play him with Julio Jones expected to rejoin him in two-wide receiver sets. However, Ridley has exhibited a higher ceiling with Jones active, and has outscored the future Hall of Fame wide receiver in fantasy points 121.5 to 114.3 when both players are active.

Jerry Jeudy finds himself at the top spot on the value list for the second consecutive week. He disappointed greatly in Week 11, posting only 6.7 fantasy points against Miami’s tough secondary. More concerning though is that he only played 65.1-percent of the snaps as a result of an ankle injury. He has seen more than enough Air Yards to score plenty of fantasy points in any tough matchup, however his injury concerns add additional volatility.

Jerry Jeudy’s 6.0 (No. 74 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility mark signals a moderate degree of fantasy scoring fluctuation. However, his lack of producing a ceiling game yet directly affects that score. That, coupled with predictive Air Yards metrics, show that he makes for a compelling play this week. He also brings an affordable salary ($5,100) and low projected rostership. He offers gamers a ticking time bomb of slate-breaking upside.

What if I told you that 32.6-percent of Mike Williams’ targets came in the form of Deep Targets? His 9.9 Unrealized Air Yards per target rank No. 3 among receivers who have seen at least 30 targets this season. Even then, he averages 17.3 (No. 11) Yards per Reception. A boom-or-bust archetype, Williams has posted 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past six game and five or fewer points twice. That amounts to a 9.2 (No. 17) Weekly Volatility mark of 9.2 – bordering on extreme volatility.

With Todd Gurley officially ruled out with a knee injury, we get a cash game lock in the form of Falcons RB Brian Hill. Las Vegas has allowed the second-most rushing TDs to RBs this season, including three last week to Kansas City’s RB duo. They also rank No. 32 in Defensive Rushing DVOA, meaning Hill should have an efficient day to pair with his monster touchdown equity. This matchup also has a solid 53-point total, meaning finding exposure to it will be crucial this week.

Kyle Rudolph is the ideal punt play this week for cash lineups. With Irv Smith listed as doubtful, Rudolph should play every snap and will run more routes than his usual 17.6 per game. Adam Thielen is also out with COVID this week, so Rudolph should see a few extra shots without Thielen’s 7.6 looks per game. He’s just barely above the min-price on both sites, so he’s in play on both DK and FD.

Now down at $5500, Todd Gurley is officially priced at his lowest point of the season. This matchup with the Raiders is tied for the highest total on the slate at 55.5 points. The Falcons are also only 3-point underdogs and are at home, meaning Atlanta should experience neutral Game Script throughout the contest. Gurley’s $5500 price doesn’t factor in his multi-touchdown upside.

Kenyan Drake has been another shockingly game flow-dependent RB this season, though he has absolutely smashed his last two soft rushing matchups. The Cardinals are 2.5-point favorites against the Patriots and Drake averages 16.2 carries per game this season. He has a reasonable shot at 20 rush attempts in this premium matchup. Given the explosiveness he’s showcased in his good matchups this season, he is an excellent play to leverage Arizona pass game stacks.