DFS

This week against the Chiefs, Tom Brady will be forced to be prolific. Averaging 40.8 (No. 6) Team Pass Plays per Game, 50 pass attempts is squarely within the range of outcomes. The Bucs have three formidable WRs from which to choose for stacking. Our recommendation this week is Chris Godwin. This week is all about volume, and with Godwin’s 56.7-percent (No. 18 among qualified wide receivers) Slot Rate, he should be peppered with easy-to-convert targets in this projected shootout.

Deshaun Watson-Will Fuller Thanksgiving Day stacks are expensive and should be chalky. Be bold and ignore the matchup by going with Ben Roethlisberger and Chase Claypool. The Steelers have realized they don’t need a run game to beat teams anymore, so Roethlisberger is throwing a ton. Diontae Johnson is the most expensive Steelers WR, but Claypool has the most blowup potential with the elite athleticism to beat the imposing Ravens secondary.

Jakobi Meyers has emerged as the first, second, and third target for Cam Newton. He has seen 437 Air Yards over the last four weeks, which gives him a league-leading 43.3-percent Air Yards Share on the season. This week, he is in a game with a 49-point total, the third-highest on the slate. Houston also ranks dead-last in Defensive Rushing DVOA, meaning you can stack the run-savvy Newton with just Meyers as a nice pivot off of Deshaun Watson stacks.

Since putting up zero fantasy points in Week 4, Brandin Cooks has been on a tear. He’s seen 47 targets over the last five games, posting 411 yards and three touchdowns. He’s now seen a 23.4-percent (No. 16) Target Share on the season, which is actually ahead of Will Fuller’s 20.6-percent (No. 34) mark. Cooks is $1000 cheaper than Fuller on both sites, meaning you get a significant discount for the real WR1.

Since Week 6, the Eagles have averaged 6.05 Yards Per Carry, while averaging just 6.45 Yards Per Pass Attempt. Miles Sanders has over 80 yards in 5-of-6 games and over 95 in 3-of-6. Since returning from injury in Week 10, expect Sanders to take advantage of a Cleveland run defense that has ranked No. 25 over the last three games.

Not only did Miles Sanders return from injury in Week 10, but Nick Chubb also returned for Cleveland with 126 yards on the ground. Chubb has eclipsed 100 yards in his last three finished games. Cleveland and Philadelphia are known as strong run defenses, but the Eagles are No. 28, allowing 148 yards per game over their last three. 

Adam Thielen is the official Air Yards value king! His presence in this section should be no surprise, having appeared here four times before. He is solidly within the top 10 at his position in both Air Yards and Air Yards Share. Coming off a week where he scored over 20 fantasy points, Thielen has a great matchup against a highly exploitable Cowboys secondary. Look for another 20-fantasy point game this week.

After a breakout performance in Week 9, and a top 35 finish at the position in Week 10, Jerry Jeudy’s $5,300 price on DraftKings has to be a glitch. Seeing almost 500 Air Yards over the past three games, Jeudy is the alpha wide receiver some predicted he would be around NFL Draft time. Despite a tough matchup against Miami, he can be deployed across all formats with confidence.

D.J. Chark holds a 33.8-percent (No.13) Air Yards Share, so as long as Jake Luton is looking downfield, Chark will benefit as we saw in his 146-yard outing in Week 9. While the Steelers feel like an intimidating matchup, they actually rank middle of the pack against the pass and are tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers. We know Chark can produce the boom weeks and he will likely see low ownership because of the matchup despite the $5,700 price tag on DraftKings.

All three of Pittsburgh’s starting wideouts saw double-digit targets and found the end zone in Week 10. But it’s Diontae Johnson who has seen 10 or more targets in five of nine games this season, with 39 targets over the last four. This Steelers-Jaguars game features two high-volume passing offenses, so despite the low over/under, Johnson will still see plenty of opportunity to rack up fantasy points against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. You can’t go wrong at $5,900.

In what profiles as a smash spot for Dallas receivers, large-field GPPs gamers should target CeeDee Lamb. Priced in between Amari Cooper ($6,900) and Michael Gallup ($5,400) on DraftKings, Lamb ($5,800) offers leverage at low projected rostership. Minnesota has yielded 19 receiving touchdowns so far this season and allows +4.09 fantasy points above the mean to opposing receivers, both the sixth-most in the league.

Chase Claypool’s volatile nature coupled with the overall talent of the Steelers receiving corps makes pinpointing his blowup weeks tough. However, he’s a threat to take it to the house each time he touches the ball and his heady ceiling can’t be ignored. Despite his success, he is an undervalued GPP asset this week with low projected rostership in a matchup against Jacksonville.

Salvon Ahmed has little long term value with a pedestrian athletic profile and Myles Gaskin set to return in the near future. But for this week against the Broncos, he should be a smash play at only $5,600. He will get the majority of the ground work and the Dolphins should have positive Game Script. That is enough to make him a good play at that price, especially in cash.

No one knows why, but Adam Gase continues to give Frank Gore ten-plus touches a week despite having the most negative Game Script of any team in the league. It does not make sense, but that touch volume continues to put Gore on the Value Rating list. He is the cheapest starting running back, but fantasy gamers have to hold their nose to play him in any format.

As if 2020 couldn’t get any weirder, Kalen Ballage was signed off the street two weeks ago and is now a featured back in the NFL. The former fourth-rounder has handled 40 touches over the last two weeks and has scored 16.4 and 15.2 DraftKings fantasy points. He also has a combined 12 red zone opportunities and nine target. At just $5600, he’s a solid cash play if you don’t want to spend $9000 on two RB spots and is good tournament leverage off of Keenan Allen and Justin Herbert.

After two tough rushing matchups against the Jaguars and Browns, Duke Johnson’s efficiency should rise against this lackluster Patriots unit. This game has serious shootout potential with two bad defenses against at least one capable offense. DFS gamers have been spoiled this season by massive shootouts with 56-point totals, making the 49-point total of this game seem modest. The over has a serious chance of hitting and Johnson presents a great opportunity to get exposure to it at low ownership.

Jalen Reagor, Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffery are back in action. Those upgrades make a big difference for both Carson Wentz’s floor and ceiling. He’ll have viable pass-catchers to go along with his unheralded rushing production. So many rookie WRs have popped in this class, and after dealing with some injuries, it’s time for Reagor to do the same. Enjoy the cost savings of the $4,300 price tag to fill out the rest of your roster.

As one of the cheapest options on the slate, playing in a dome, against a not particularly threatening defense, it may not feel great, but there is a lot to like about Andy Dalton this week. Amari Cooper’s 8.5 (No. 84 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance shows he’s getting easy targets near the line of scrimmage which he can take and turn up field, evidenced by his 220 (No. 18) Yards after the Catch. That presents a solid combination of floor and ceiling for the dollar.

As Miami’s all-time leading rusher with a 33.0-percent (76th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating, Duke Johnson can clearly handle a heavy workload. He’s just been miscast as a satellite back due to his 14.8-percent (93rd-percentile) College Target Share and smaller stature at 5-9 and 207-pounds. The team that miscast him for the first four seasons is his opponent this week, the Cleveland Browns. They traded Johnson away last season, setting up a nice revenge narrative.

Mike Davis offers one of the highest floors at his position with 49 (No. 3) targets, 43 (No. 2) receptions, and 127 (No. 9) Weighted Opportunities this season. Despite a difficult matchup with the Buccaneers, most cash lineups will feature Davis this week. His high-floor role and stone-min pricing allow DFS gamers to afford the premium QBs on the slate that offer the monster ceilings required to win. If you aren’t playing Davis, you are overthinking cash this week.