DFS

The Rams-Bills game projects to be a high scoring affair in which the Rams are underdogs. Given the expected Game Script, Jared Goff will be forced to throw. When he does, Cooper Kupp will be the beneficiary. With Goff and Kupp, we have slight underdogs in a projected high scoring affair who have been efficient to this point with a dream defensive matchup. We get that with low projected ownership and price; Goff is QB19 on DraftKings.

Despite being a rookie, Joe Burrow fits the mold to power out big time fantasy performances for himself and his teammates. His 10 (No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks) Deep Ball Attempts and 759 (No. 3) Air Yards demonstrate his aggressive nature. It hasn’t materialized in the box score yet, but the volume A.J. Green has seen is undeniable. His 22 targets rank No. 4 among qualified wide receivers, while his 338 Air Yards rank No. 1.

DeSean Jackson was peppered downfield with targets from Carson Wentz in Week 1, amassing 214 Air Yards, the most on the week. Unfortunately, Weintz was sacked eight times and seldom had time in the pocket to allow for downfield routes to fully develop. With right tackle Lane Johnson expected back in Week 2, look for Wentz to finally hook up with Jackson this week.

Fifth-round rookie Quintez Cephus saw a surprising ten targets with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup in Week 1. Seeing 24.4-percent of Matthew Stafford’s passes, Cephus finished No. 9 in the league in Air Yards for Week 1. He also failed to capitalize on the bulk of these targets, finishing with only 7.3 fantasy points. There’s a chance that he was plain unlucky. Priced near the minimum on DraftKings, he’s a worthy gamble to bounce back in Week 2.

It’s happening. Parris Campbell is finally breaking out. The sophomore WR dealt with a plethora of injuries as a rookie, but has finally captured a starting job for the Colts. More importantly, he ran out of the slot on an NFL-leading 55 snaps. With his 4.31 (100th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) speed and 135.5 (97th-percentile) Burst Score, he’s in the ideal role for a fantasy receiver against a Minnesota secondary that should be aggressively targeted in DFS.

The Chiefs have the third-highest implied team total at 28 points. While the Chargers play at a middling Pace (2.40 offensive plays per minute), they’ll certainly need to push it to keep up with the explosiveness of their opponent. This game environment gives Mike Williams a high target floor with a monster ceiling. That’s a pretty good combination for a guy that costs $4200.

With Kenny Golladay ruled out again, the Lions facing a burnable Packers defense in Week 2. Only priced at $3800 on DraftKings, Quintez Cephus is close to a free square this week. While missing his top target and facing mostly positive Game Script, Matthew Stafford still dished out 42 (No. 6) pass attempts. Combine that passing volume with his 8.8 (No. 6) Air Yards per Attempt and we have a QB ready to put up massive numbers.

This week, the Chargers face the fearsome Kansas City Chiefs. Given the offense they’ll be going against, they will have no choice but to unleash Taylor given the likelihood that they face negative Game Script. With Taylor costing only $5300 (QB23) and Williams at only $4200 (tied for WR60 and $1500 cheaper than Keenan Allen), this stack presents maximum upside while unlocking salary for a loaded RB corps.

In Week 1, Davante Adams smoked Minnesota’s young defensive backs for 156 yards on his own. The Packers receivers racked up 315 yards, second to only Atlanta’s 401 yards. Parris Campbell and T.Y. Hilton bring upper 90th-percentile 40-Yard-Dash scores into matchups with inexperienced slow corners. Minnesota’s lack of speed was evident on Sunday, giving up three receptions of over 38 yards. 

The Podfather’s Monkey Knife Fight Prop of The Week comes from Nashville, Tennessee. We see Jacksonville leaning on James Robinson after he received all 16 running back carries for Jacksonville in Week 1. The only UDFA to ever start at RB in Week 1, Robinson averaged 3.9 yards per carry in his pro debut. Expect the Jags to continue their slow-paced offensive approach from Week 1, pounding the rock early to counter Derrick Henry.

Parris Campbell is priced at $4,500 on Draftkings for a matchup with a vulnerable Vikings secondary that was shredded for 364 yards and four touchdowns in Week 1. The Colts are three point underdogs in one of the higher over/under games on the slate. It sets up nicely to be another high-volume game for Campbell and the passing attack. He’s one evaded tackle away from a long score and massive fantasy outing.

When identifying wide receivers with GPP-winning upside, we look for guys seeing downfield and red zone targets. That’s Mike Williams’ game all the way. He perfectly fits the mold of a good tournament play. Los Angeles is an 8.5-point home underdog against the league’s best offense, so Game Script should work in his favor. At $4,200 on Draftkings, we won’t find a much better value in Week 2.

Certain advanced metrics signal that Keenan Allen will rebound this week against the Chiefs. That makes him an appealing play at his price point ($5,700 on DraftKings) and projected low ownership. He played 97.1-percent of the snaps in Week 1 and earned 47.6-percent of the Chargers’ Air Yards. More importantly, Allen’s 75 Unrealized Air Yards ranked No. 7 among qualified wide receivers, signaling that there’s more meat on the bone.

Tyler Lockett sets up as an intriguing mid-tier price point play ($6,300 on DraftKings) who projects to garner slim ownership this week. With 4.40 (92nd-percentile) speed, Lockett lives his life one play away from a touchdown. It’s a big part of the reason he ranked No. 9 in Target Separation last season. It’s also why he shows a penchant for booming and busting, posting the No. 7-ranked Weekly Volatility score (10.8) among receivers with at least 40 catches.

With Marlon Mack’s season-ending Achilles injury, Jonathan Taylor is in an absolute smash spot this week. Philip Rivers carried over his career love for targeting RBs, hooking up with Taylor and Nyheim Hines for 14 of his 36 completions. Taylor saw six of those, good for No. 2 among RBs in Week 1. The Vikings are a softer matchup than most think, ranking No. 27 in Defense Rushing DVOA against the Packers last week. Should his receiving volume continue, Taylor will flirt with top-5 RB numbers.

It didn’t take long for James Conner to realize his No. 1-ranked Injury Probability. His first quarter ankle injury paved the way for Benny Snell to be featured as the poster boy of Week 2 DFS. The second-year Steelers RB reportedly slimmed down from his 224-pound frame and looked good on Monday night. James Conner has yet to practice, meaning the Steelers will likely lean on Snell regardless of his status. He’s affordable and is a lock for 20 carries in an explosive offense.

Fantasy gamers should forget about DeSean Jackson and instead consider the oft-neglected Marvin Jones at home against the Bears for $5,500. With a 10.8 Weekly Volatility mark last season, Jones ranked No. 6 among receivers with at least 40 catches. Kenny Golladay earned a 21.1-percent (No. 33 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share in 2019, while Jones posted a 20.2-percent (No. 39) mark. If Golladay fails to suit up, Jones’ ownership percentage may creep into unplayable territory, so it’s a situation to monitor.

Henr Ruggs projects to carry a high degree of Weekly Volatility this season, to be sure. Dial him up against the Panthers in his first NFL game action before the masses become infatuated with him. He oozes with upside and the Raiders will move him all over the field and design plays to get him the ball in space. That’s why he will find the end zone in his first NFL game. The price is right on DraftKings ($5,100) and he doesn’t figure to garner huge ownership.

We can naturally anticipate a more pass-friendly offense from the Ravens in 2020, which will only bode well for the man they call Hollywood. With no serious competition for targets outside of Mark Andrews, Marquie Brown is in line for a significant share of the passing offense. Priced at $5,200 (WR32) on DraftKings, Hollywood is a great play vs a vulnerable Browns secondary.

For the second-straight season, Terry McLaurin will see the Eagles on opening day. He torched them for 255 yards and two touchdowns in two games last year. He’s slightly underpriced as the WR25 on the slate on DraftKings but has clear top-10 upside for the week with a safe floor and high ceiling.