Prop Plays

85.5 Receiving Yards is steep, but the 54.5 Over/Under suggests that there will be plenty of chances for Keenan Allen to rack up receiving yards. Allen has amassed 21 Targets (No. 5 among qualified wide receivers) and 239 Air Yards (No. 10), so he will have ample opportunity to compile yards against the Chiefs who have allowed the second most yards to offenses through Week 2.

The Law of the Conservation of Targets dictates that Kyle Pitts will see increased target volume with the absence of Russell Gage. Already, Pitts has seen an impressive 18.4-percent (No. 6) Target Share and the loss of Gage will do nothing but improve this volume. It’s hard to imagine Frank Darby or Tajae Sharpe siphoning targets from Pitts, which is why I’m confidently taking the OVER in a game with a decent over/under at 46.5.

Noah Fant’s advanced metrics make it impossible to resist the drool-worthy 50.5 receiving yards line on Underdog Fantasy. His opportunity metrics will continue to impress in Week 2 with the absence of Jerry Jeudy. Clearly, Fant’s 83.3-percent (No. 9 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share shows that he is always in the game, and his 28 (No. 7) Routes Run means that he is generating opportunity for targets. Moreover, he delivered with a 22.9-percent (No. 5) Target Share and a whopping 8 (No. 3) Targets!

The under feels so right when you consider Robby Anderson’s Week 1 results coupled with his matchup against the Saints. In the case of his Week 1 performance, he only mustered 3 Targets with a 9.1-percent (No. 84) Target Share last week against the lowly Jets secondary. Targets won’t come any easier this week against a Saints defense that only allowed 186 passing yards to the Packers.

Typically we stay away from bad teams in props or fantasy, but this week there are only a few strong games to play. In Week 13, Denzel Mims and Breshad Perriman bring upper 90th-percentile Speed Scores up against a battered Las Vegas Raiders pass defense. Missing star safeties Johnathan Abram, and Lamarcus Joyner, and with both starting cornerbacks riding the injury report each of the last two weeks, expect Mims and Perriman to close in on 200 yards between them.

The Podfather’s Prop of the Week comes from Miami in Week 13, featuring the 2020 NFL Draft’s top two picks from the Dolphins and Bengals. Unfortunately, neither Tua Tagovailoa nor Joe Burrow will play on Sunday. Instead, we will see a battle between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brandon Allen, where The Podfather sees the Dolphins defense putting the clamps on Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. 

Dalvin Cook enters Week 12 with 14 total touchdowns in nine games. He has scored in all but one contest, finishing with multiple scores in 4-of-9 outings. Carolina finished No. 32 against the run in 2019, allowing 30 touchdowns to running backs. 2020 hasn’t been much better. Through 11 weeks, Carolina ranks No. 27/No. 28 in touchdowns and yards allowed to running backs. 

The Podfather’s Prop of the Week comes from Buffalo in a game with a 53-point projected game total. In 2020, Buffalo has played in six games totaling over 50 points, while Los Angeles has played in seven such games. With key defensive pieces out in Week 12, The Chargers and Bills will turn to their young gunslingers and key on the passing game to gain an edge on each other Sunday.

Since Week 6, the Eagles have averaged 6.05 Yards Per Carry, while averaging just 6.45 Yards Per Pass Attempt. Miles Sanders has over 80 yards in 5-of-6 games and over 95 in 3-of-6. Since returning from injury in Week 10, expect Sanders to take advantage of a Cleveland run defense that has ranked No. 25 over the last three games.

Not only did Miles Sanders return from injury in Week 10, but Nick Chubb also returned for Cleveland with 126 yards on the ground. Chubb has eclipsed 100 yards in his last three finished games. Cleveland and Philadelphia are known as strong run defenses, but the Eagles are No. 28, allowing 148 yards per game over their last three. 

Next up for Aaron Jones is Jacksonville, whose 10 touchdowns allowed to running backs ranks No. 27 in the league. With four touchdowns over the last three weeks, James Robinson enters Week 10 ranked No. 6 among qualified running backs with 580 rushing yards. Entering Week 10, Green Bay is tied for dead last with 15 touchdowns allowed to running backs. Jones and Robinson is the Smash of the Week for Monkey Knife Fight Touchdown Props.

This week, The Podfather sees the first of many matchups between Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert being a shootout. Herbert has passed for less than 278 yards just once, in Week 5 at New Orleans where he finished with 268 yards. In his second career start, Tagovailoa looks to capitalize on a Chargers secondary that is vulnerable to the deep ball while missing cornerback Chris Harris to injury.

In Week 9, Christian McCaffrey is back for Carolina, and that means it’s time to dabble back in the Touchdown Dance. He returns for the first time since Week 2, coming off of back-to-back two-score games. In Week 9, he draws a Kansas City Chiefs defense that ranks No. 29 against the run.

Michael Thomas returns for the first time since Week 1, when he finished with a 3-17 stat line against Carlton Davis. In Week 9, Thomas draw Davis’ coverage again while coming off ankle and hamstring injuries. He’s likely to be a decoy in Tampa, aligning for an Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook-focused game.

The most dominant running back in the NFL today, Derrick Henry is No. 1 since 2018 with 3,262 total rushing yards. So far in 2020, Henry averages 28 carries and 117 rushing yards per game on the road. Coupled with Cincinnati’s inability to stop the run, ranking No. 28 and allowing 113 yards per game, Henry is a smash on Sunday.

In 2020, Russell Wilson has surpassed 310 passing yards in four games. Though in 16 career games against San Francisco, Wilson has never thrown for over 260 yards. Wilson will again be asked to “cook” against a battered 49ers defense. While PlayerProfiler’s No. 2-ranked cornerback Jason Verrett takes on D.K. Metcalf, Jamar Taylor is manning the slot and is ranked No. 110 among cornerbacks. Expect the Tyler Lockett connection to stay hot on Sunday. 

Michael Thomas is out again in Week 7, this time with a hamstring injury. Carolina has given up 47 receptions to running backs through six weeks, a 7.8 per-game average and last in the league. With Thomas out over the last month, Alvin Kamara is the target and receptions leader in New Orleans by over 10. With three games over eight receptions, expect the Saints superstar to feast again.

Tampa has arguably the best cornerback duo in the NFL, and the Raiders’ best weapon that isn’t exclusively a deep threat is Darren Waller, who is coming off a much-needed bye week to recover from knee soreness. Expect the Raiders to lean on Waller, who has five-plus receptions in four of five games and leads Las Vegas in targets, receptions, and yards.

Jonathan Taylor has 19 Red Zone touches in five games, good for No. 9 among qualified running backs. Taylor has turned those 19 opportunities into three (No. 15) touchdowns. Indianapolis plays a depleted Bengals defense that lost defensive line starters Sam Hubbard and D.J. Reader last week. The Bengals are No. 31 against the run in 2020, and without their top run defender in Reader, expect Taylor to melt this game away on the ground.

In Week 2, rookie Chase Claypool burst onto the scene with an 85-yard touchdown reception. Since then, his Snap Share has doubled from 36.5-percent up to 72.7-percent. In Week 5, with Darius Slay as his main defender, Claypool took the Eagles for a crazy 7-110-3 stat line in the air. With Diontae Johnson hobbled, Ben Roethlisberger will rely on Claypool and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has a 73.4-percent (No. 13) Slot Rate and 120.5 (No. 13) Yards After Catch.