Strategy

Based on the flurry of injury news it is difficult to grasp where ownership will ultimately settle at a game level. One priority spot – if ownership remains under control – will be the Miami passing game against Houston. Tua Tagovailoa has been a strong fantasy option in every good matchup thus far and Houston presents the best there is. I love prioritizing pass-heavy offenses as heavy favourites as they are less prone to Game Script.

Is Amari Cooper underpriced this week at $5,700? absolutely. Will he be in my cash lineup? Certainly. But his inefficient salary does not make him any more likely to post 30-plus points. Fading a 20-percent (or higher?) rostered Cooper could eliminate a high percentage of the field should be bust, and even if he hits above his median, it’s unlikely to truly bury you.

Since returning from injury, Tua Tagovailoa is on pace to throw the second most passes per game. In a dream matchup against the Texans this week, pair him with Jaylen Waddle for maximum upside in GPP tournaments. Also explore a leverage option by paying up for the Cowboys to avoid Amari Cooper chalk.

The Titans-Colts matchup is always the highest scoring. However, two of the past three have hit at least 51 points. Aside from Jonathan Taylor, it’s typically the studs from each team who garner the points. Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman, and T.Y. Hilton generally are the players who succeed in these matchups. However, with all the injuries to both teams, it’s tough to predict who will be successful on either side. 

Chris Godwin could smash against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson while Mike Evans struggles against Marshon Lattimore like he typically does. Tom Brady is in play primarily because the Saints run defense is elite. There aren’t too many situations where Brady doesn’t rack up fantasy points. If Winston turns the ball over a ton, Brady could have five touchdowns. If this DFS Week 8 matchup becomes a shootout, Brady could have five touchdowns. The only way he doesn’t is if the Saints run defense falters. 

D.J. Moore has arrived as an elite, alpha receiver in 2021. He ranks No. 6 in Target Share, and No. 11 in Air Yards Share. While he’s suffered from inconsistent quarterback play, the chance to play Moore in an elite matchup projected under ten-percent ownership is an opportunity you cannot pass up. Diontae Johnson is eternally under-owned in DFS despite a 29-percent Target Share. While the matchup is not as juicy as Moore’s, Johnson has a role worth well above his $6,700 salary and few project to be paying for it.

This week offers another opportunity to test our heuristics on bring backs. Cincinnati, Buffalo, and the Rams are all among the best projected teams on the slate in games with spreads above ten points. Should you play both sides of these games or merely stick to the favourite? With the caveat that each play should be viewed in a vacuum, I think the answers spread widely here.

Tom Brady has taken a blow torch to opposing pass defenses this year, yet there’s still some lagging skepticism among DFS players. Capitalize by playing one of the highest floor and ceiling plays, paired with his slot WR Chris Godwin in a plus matchup this week against the Saints. Alternatively, get leverage off the popular high end WR plays by stacking Justin Herbert with Mike Williams in another of the league’s pass happiest offenses.

With the Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, Steelers, Broncos, Browns, Colts, 49ers, Saints, and Seahawks all off the main slate, most would think it creates opportunity. However, for this week, in particular, I believe it establishes chalk. A combination of matchups and injuries limits the opportunities. 

Patrick Mahomes stacked with combinations of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will be popular, and I’m not suggesting to fade them. However, lineups with Mahomes, Darrel Williams, and Mecole Hardman could make for an exciting turnout. Hill has hit on a 50-percent ROI thus far. If the Chiefs go up early, we could see a week where we could have pivoted to another player and seen variance from Mahomes builds. 

Lamar Jackson let down many DFS players last week as the Ravens running backs rushed for three touchdowns. Going back to him this week with his highest upside wide receiver will be an opportunity to leverage his more popular teammates. Also, see why playing the Titans passing game is a great contrarian angle to take in the highest scoring game of the week.

The final stack features Derek Carr and Henry Ruggs. Carr is playing some of the best ball of his career this year and doing so in a way ideal for fantasy owners. The main beneficiary of this play has been Ruggs. He’s turned the No. 2-ranked Average Target Distance (18.8 yards) into 350 (No. 9) Completed Air Yards and 445 (No. 14) receiving yards. He’s looking like the un-guardable deep threat promised out of Alabama last year.

In the long run, avoiding the chalk to find unique roster builds and leverage points increases your likelihood of spiking a tournament and getting in on the top heavy prizes. It doesn’t mean it will work every week though. Week 5 showed that sometimes the chalk hits and fantasy gamers who faded them don’t have much of a chance. We won’t adjust our process; we continue to zoom out and focus on the strategies that work best over the long term.

Kyler Murray is always in play for GPP tournaments regardless of price. Beat the market by pairing him with Rondale Moore whose role has expanded each of the last three weeks before his price catches up. Meanwhile we explore stacks for both teams in an under the radar potential shootout.

Injuries have ravaged the running backs position for a second straight week, allowing several backups to find feature roles. The super-charged ‘handcuff’ Kareem Hunt leads the pack, who is a viable play every week without injury, and now becomes the top play on the slate at $6200. My attitude with Hunt is similar to Mattison last week. He’s a game script proof option in an elite environment. There’s no path to a comfortable fade.

It is going to be extra imperative to find structural ways to reduce your ownership this week with so much consolidation around the top games. Chiefs-Football Team and Ravens-Chargers are the clear-cut top games and injuries in both leave very few paths to differentiation within your stacks. Especially when playing those lineups, you need to implement structural leverage points to stay unique.

We saw late last year that Cleveland is willing to play a higher-pace, pass-first style if drawn into it by a high-octane opponent and the Chargers could be that team. The Chargers are among the fastest-paced, most pass-heavy teams in the league this year and concentrate targets heavily between four players. I’m willing to stack the Cleveland side of this game with Mayfield, Beckham and Austin Hooper, or to roll out a Chargers stack with Chubb. I’m also quite interested in Mike Williams as a contrarian tournament option.

With the Bengals potentially losing Joe Mixon this week, I expect Cincinnati to build on their progression last week and turn in their most pass-heavy game-plan of 2021. All three Bengals wideouts are under $6000 and I will be playing each. I expect the lowest owned to be Ja’Marr Chase given the highest price ($5800), although its possible Tee Higgins comes in under his ownership projection in his first game back from injury. At just $5000 he’s one of the best values on the slate.