Strategy

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it? We’re going right back to the Eagles this week. After smashing on Sunday, DraftKings raised Jalen Hurts’ price by only $100 to $6.5k. Devonta Smith received more of a price bump, but at $5.4k he’s still too cheap as the top option in this offense. DraftKings seems to not want to overreact to Week 1 with salaries, so take advantage in situations where we feel more confident coming out of last week.

This week when everyone is on Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper/CeeDee Lamb or Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, paying up slightly to pivot onto the Bills provides an appealing leverage point in tournaments. Another way to pivot off of chalky expensive stacks is to totally alter the structure of your lineup. By paying all the way down at $5.1K for Zach Wilson and $5.3K for WR1 Corey Davis, you free up copious salary to play other high end players the field can’t afford due to their stack.

At the beginning of a new season with uncertain target distributions, take bold stabs at prolific QBs and upside WRs for your stacks to gain leverage on the field through uniquely correlated roster construction in DFS tournaments. Jalen Hurts and new WR1 Devonta Smith provide just one tantalizing example.

The Jalen Hurts-Devonta Smith stack checks every box listed above and costs under $11k on DraftKings this week. In the dome in Atlanta, this game features a 48.5 over under total. Smith looks like the number one wideout in Philadelphia, but enters Week 1 as the fourth-cheapest team WR1 by PlayerProfiler projection and second-cheapest team WR1 by DK salary. Take advantage of the value while DK and other fantasy gamers worry about the rookie translating to the NFL and a nebulous Target Share.

Looking back to 2020, there was only one time a stack with a quarterback-pass catcher won the Millionaire Maker and the combined point total was 50 points or less: Week 8 when the Chiefs destroyed the Jets 35-9. There’s plenty of ways to find these players and matchups, whether it be the perfect positional advantages, bad defenses meeting incredible offenses, or two great quarterbacks going head to head. Finding these matchups is key to building the start to a great roster.

Let’s say you want to target the Steelers-Bills game. By stacking this game, you’re betting on it to be the highest scoring contest on the slate. With many strong plays to complete your stack, you want to target players who correlate with the game’s ceiling outcome. You’re banking on a octane performance from the Steelers to keep the Bills passing to Stefon Diggs. Your best bet for this is with Chase Claypool.

It’s possible we get an under-rostered Austin Ekeler if he is declared healthy by game-time after missing practice with a hamstring injury. On the other side, On the other side, Curtis Samuel has landed on IR after aggravating his groin, narrowing the target tree in Washington. Any combination of skinny stacks between Ekeler (if healthy), Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, and Logan Thomas will be a fixture in my tournament core this weekend.

Welcome to my series on tournament daily fantasy sports for PlayerProfiler. The Pareto Principals will embark on an overview of each slate with an eye towards theoretical, structural analysis. I will apply that to an intriguing lineup concept to employ in DFS tournaments that week; with an emphasis on limited entry, small to medium field contests.

My ‘Pareto-inspired’ play-style works best in environments which reward a big-hit, small-miss mentality, that prioritizes macro-level process over micro-level selections. If that’s not you, I think this column will still be a useful read in terms of helping grow your mindset for DFS, fantasy football, and probability-based thinking in general. If that is you, then I encourage you to play along with me this season.

Deshaun Watson leads the league in with 8.8 Yards per Attempt and his 88.5-percent True Completion Percentage is the No. 3-ranked mark among qualified quarterbacks. With a soft matchup at home against the Bengals, this looks like another big week. Brandin Cooks is still the WR to pair with Watson for the highest floor and ceiling. Fully healed from the neck injury, he is set to smash at only $6.2K this week on DraftKings.

Andy Dalton and Amari Cooper are both under $6K this week facing the Philadelphia Eagles at home in a dome in a game with the second-highest total on the slate. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup have been making plays over the last few weeks and are viable stacking combinations as well, but Cooper’s 8.2 Targets per Game rank No. 13 among qualified wide receivers. We’re banking on that volume in a game like this to be the best bet to maximize upside.

Priced almost $1000 less than Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray gives daily fantasy gamers the QB1 upside at a discount relative to the rest of the top tier QBs. That savings can be used to pay up for his top target DeAndre Hopkins, who has faced an incredibly difficult slate of corners over the last few weeks in Stephon Gilmore, Jalen Ramsey, and James Bradberry. Darius Slay isn’t practicing this week, which gives Hopkins even more potential to smash.

Since returning to the lineup in Week 12, Mitchell Trubisky has posted two top 10 fantasy QB performances. Yet DraftKings refuses to price him up, even as they face an average Minnesota Vikings defense in a dome. Allen Robinson’s price is rising, but there is still plenty of upside value left, and pairing him with Trubisky at only $5.5K provides sufficient salary relief to not have to compromise at other positions.

From a budget perspective, it takes effort to fit in both Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen at over $7K each, but Kirk Cousins offers salary relief at only $6.2K. Without a doubt, this is a volatile strategy. It requires the perfect game conditions, but in a GPP, you’re shooting for scenarios that lead to 95th-percentile outcomes, which this game presents. Be sure to run it back with a Buccaneer to capture the full-on shootout upside.

At a $5.1K price, outside the top 25 at QB, Jalen Hurts doesn’t need to be flawless to return tournament-winning upside. If he does hit, this is the week to be on him before any price or ownership spikes. Jalen Reagor unquestionably has the most upside in the Philadelphia WR corps. Last week, we got a taste of the explosive rookie’s dynamism and 140.4 (98th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Burst Score with the punt return TD.

After the murderer’s row of defenses to start the year, Deshaun Watson has been simply phenomenal. He should be a popular option this week without getting too chalky as players fear that imposing Colts defensive matchup. Instead of throwing darts at the backups with Keke Coutee, Isaiah Coulter, or the tight ends, go with Brandin Cooks. This game will be played in a dome with one of the only 50-plus point totals, and at only $5600, he will be among the cheapest WR1s available on the slate.

At only $5.4K, Mitchell Trubisky draws a matchup against a Lions team with a struggling defense that just fired their coach after getting torched by Deshaun Watson on Thanksgiving. The unquestioned alpha in the offense, Allen Robinson is the most sensible receiver to stack with Trubisky. Put it together and we have a stack featuring a running QB with his target magnet WR1 at discount prices in a dream matchup with low ownership due to brand.

This week against the Chiefs, Tom Brady will be forced to be prolific. Averaging 40.8 (No. 6) Team Pass Plays per Game, 50 pass attempts is squarely within the range of outcomes. The Bucs have three formidable WRs from which to choose for stacking. Our recommendation this week is Chris Godwin. This week is all about volume, and with Godwin’s 56.7-percent (No. 18 among qualified wide receivers) Slot Rate, he should be peppered with easy-to-convert targets in this projected shootout.

Deshaun Watson-Will Fuller Thanksgiving Day stacks are expensive and should be chalky. Be bold and ignore the matchup by going with Ben Roethlisberger and Chase Claypool. The Steelers have realized they don’t need a run game to beat teams anymore, so Roethlisberger is throwing a ton. Diontae Johnson is the most expensive Steelers WR, but Claypool has the most blowup potential with the elite athleticism to beat the imposing Ravens secondary.