Strategy

We approached our Sleeper play via correlation and game-stacking in a Jaguars vs. Chiefs contest that was projected by Vegas to be the highest-scoring game of Week 10. While the offenses did not live up to that hype, we picked out the alphas and nearly smashed the three-legger. Christian Kirk was the Jacksonville No. 1 again. He put up a season-high nine receptions on 12 targets for 105 yards, including two touchdowns. On the other side, Travis Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving. Kelce had six receptions on seven targets for 81 yards and the receiving touchdown we needed. However, despite throwing for 331 yards on 35 pass attempts, Mahomes only needed 26 completions to get there. This ruined a 5x profit parlay cash for us by just one pass. Sheesh.

Fading a wide receiver with a 25.6-percent (No. 19) Target Share and 603 (No. 16) receiving yards is a gamble, but Michael Pittman has not finished as a top-30 WR since Week 6. This week Nico Collins gets the Washington Commanders, who allow the second-highest Average Target Distance and fourth-most Air Yards.

After melting faces and averaging over 23 fantasy points per game in weeks seven, and eight, D.J. Moore has crashed down to earth unable to eclipse seven fantasy points per game the past two weeks. The return of Baker Mayfield under center for the Panthers only adds to the gloom and doom of D.J. Moore’s fantasy prospects. Once a chalky play on the slate, Moore is perhaps the most intriguing contrarian play of the week against a Ravens secondary that has been exploitable at times this season. I would consider some tournament exposure.

Mack Hollins took on a greater role in the Raiders offense last week with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller placed on injured reserve. Hollins saw 140 Air Yards and six targets. However he only scored 3.8 fantasy points. The average depth of target remains high a 15.4 yards (no. 5). However, the increase in targets adds a bit more sturdiness to his fantasy floor. He is a recommended play in all formats.

The Lions entered Week 10 allowing the fourth-most QB rushing fantasy points. Justin Fields just ran all over them for 147 yards while three other QBs have passed 40 rushing yards against them. Allowing less than 24 points in a game just once this season, Detroit is a porous defense through the air and on the ground. Expect Daniel Jones to feast as a dual-threat this week.

While Higbee could see an uptick in targets this week, he faces a Saints defense that has been effective against TEs. New Orleans has not allowed more than 50 yards to an opposing TE group since Week 5. Isaiah Likely is the only TE to score a touchdown against Demario Davis and company this season.

We are halfway through the regular season already. Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s best pick ‘em player props: Week 10! As usual, I will review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

Yes, Terry McLaurin has seen 8+ targets in each game since Taylor Heinicke took over at quarterback while facing touch matchups and secondaries in the Packers and Colts, but the Heinicke-McLaurin pairing went 0-2 against Darius Slay and the Eagles last season on its attempts to get McLaurin to finish inside the top-30 at his position.

I’m fading Josh Palmer and recommending his teammate, DeAndre Carter. Obviously, monitor Keenan Allen’s status, but he didn’t practice on Thursday and not trending toward playing at the time of this writing. In the past two games, Carter has been forced into play. He’s responded with snap shares over 80-percent, over 6 targets per game, and over 70+ Air Yards per game.

Amari Cooper returns from a bye week as the undisputed target hog on the Browns. He has topped 100 Air Yards in three of his past four games including a 126 Air Yards showing in Week 8 in which he finished as the WR7. Look for Cooper to continue his fantasy dominance against an exploitable Dolphins secondary this week.

Marcus Mariota’s middle name must be ‘miracle’ because not many predicted he’d be the Falcons starting quarterback this long. Despite 30 (No. 12) Deep Ball Attempts, he throws one of the worst deep balls in the league. He missed Kyle Pitts for a walk-in long ball by a mile on Sunday. He’s the poster child for an inefficient backup, yet he produces 0.64 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Dropback. While the Falcons run near a league-low in pass attempts, it’s worth noting that Mariota has thrown for over 300 air yards in two straight close Game Scripts, including a game vs Carolina. It might be ugly, and there will be low points, but Mariota is a QB2 with a big-play upside and a rushing role. I expect a QB2 performance in what should be a slower grudge match on a slow week.

The Dolphins were No. 9 in fantasy points allowed to receivers entering Week 9, where they allowed seven receptions and a touchdown to Darnell Mooney. Miami has allowed at least 24 points in six games this season, with teams passing often in shootouts against the Dolphins’ fast offense. If Cleveland finds itself in a shootout, Cooper will be utilized exponentially more.

The Packers have not allowed over 220 passing yards since Week 3, snagging four interceptions over their last three games. Green Bay’s secondary has shown an ability to contain opposing receiving corps well this season. They do have some injuries on the defense, but Jaire Alexander and company have the secondary locked down. Expect the Cowboys to instead attack the Packers’ suspect run defense. Prescott has a tough fantasy matchup this week.

Vegas has the total points line of this game set at 49.5. The total is tied for the highest on the Week 9 Sunday slate. This means the books expect offense. It is no surprise that since the departure of Davante Adams, the No. 1 option in this Packers attack has been Aaron Jones. What’s been slightly difficult to project is how much of his involvement is split between rushing and receiving. While he has cleared this rushing number only three times this season, everything points to the value in the over in Week 9.