Upside Plays

Patrick Mahomes is priced up at $8,000, but he’s worth the spend-up at the position. Mahomes should have no problem returning to fantasy relevancy with a visit from a Raiders team he dismantled (39DKPt) a couple weeks back. In a game tied for No. 1 in Pace of Play, The Chiefs own a slate-high 28.75 Vegas team total.

With cheaper bellcow streamers soaking up ownership, Alvin Kamara is a light-chalk leverage play in a smash spot against the Jets. The Jets have had no answer for enemy running backs allowing a league-worst 36.9 DKPt/game average. Ranking last in Rush Percentage Inside 10 has resulted in 18 enemy rushing touchdowns (also league worst). Interestingly, Kamara still ranks inside the top 10 in Carries Inside 10 (13 carries), even after missing four weeks with a knee injury. It’s Kamara time.

With how much preseason hype was surrounding Elijah Moore, I have been surprised at how quiet his second half breakout has been in the fantasy world. Moore quickly became Zach Wilson’s go-to after returning from injury. Earning a target on 34-percent of his routes run over the past two weeks and leading the team in targets in that same time frame. Moore will look to get fed more as his competition for targets has shrunk with Corey Davis missing the remainder of the season. The schedule for the Jets doesn’t scare anyone as Moore will continue to break out and bring some boom weeks.

Javonte Williams is shaping up to be the quintessential league winning running back. The ultimate breakout took place in Week 13 with Melvin Gordon inactive. Williams was the No. 1 running back in fantasy on the week. Racking up 102 rushing yards on 23 carries and topping it off with six receptions on nine targets for an additional 76 yards and a touchdown. With Gordon banged up, the door is open for Williams to take over and smash his way through an attractive schedule.

The Bucs tend to pressure opposing teams into passing by running up the score. Since opposing offenses have mostly abandoned the run, the Bucs are allowing a league-high 71-percent Pass Percentage. They also allow a 75-percent (No. 3) Passing TD Percentage. Matt Ryan himself is inexpensive ($5,600) and his counterparts are as well (Kyle Pitts at $5,600 and Russell Gage at $5,300). Paying down for Ryan gives you a great way to approach the game ranked No. 3 in Pace of Play.

With Darren Waller listed doubtful with a variety of injuries, the public will be drawn to Foster Moreau. A leverage play tight-end from the same game is the Football Team’s Logan Thomas. In games he’s started, he averages an elite 20.9-percent Air Yards Share (31.3-percent in Week 12). He makes a great low-rostered pairing with Taylor Heinicke with the Raiders having been had by opposing tight ends, ranking No. 5 in aFPA.

A week removed from a top three QB finish (30.8 DKPt), Jalen Hurts projects as the QB2. While the trio of rushing touchdowns against New Orleans was a bit of a fluke, Hurts’ QB1 upside is not. Expect a lot of plays to be run on both sides of the ball as this game leads the slate in Pace of Play. Pair Hurts with DeVonta Smith or Dallas Goedert or run him solo but whatever you do, don’t fade him.

With Cam Newton injected back into the Panther’s offense, Robby Anderson is back in the conversation. With Newton, Anderson has nearly matched D.J. Moore with a 20-percent Target Share and Receptions (9). The Dolphins can be had over the top too, as they rank dead last in explosive plays (20 plus yards downfield). At only $4,700 and projecting to be hardly owned, there are worse spots to find this kind of upside.

With three games on the docket, the pickings are slim on a short Thanksgiving slate. At the quarterback position, Josh Allen is the clear-cut top option and is worth the spend-up. After bodying DFS lineups in a surprising flop performance against the Colts, expect a bounce-back game against a Saints team that has allowed a lot of fantasy points to the quarterback this season (No. 7) but especially over the past four weeks (No. 1 in points allowed).

With the questions surrounding the Cowboys offensive weapons, consider a complete dart throw in tight end Sean McKeon. With Blake Jarwin shelved on IR, the second-year tight end has seen a slight uptick in playing time. Dallas should run more two tight end sets in support of the run-heavy Game Script, which would put him on the field more. McKeon is athletic given his 93rd-percentile Vertical Jump and 78th-percentile Speed Score. At the stone minimum $2,500 10 DKPt gives us tournament-winning upside.

Patrick Mahomes looked pretty back to himself while dismantling the Raiders in prime time. After a handful of subpar outings, Mahomes posted his highest scoring fantasy game of the season (39.2 DKPt). Vegas is back in on the Chiefs as denoted by their slate-high 29 point implied team total and I’m here for it. The game ranks No.1 in Pace of Play and both offenses can fill the stat sheet. Both teams rank top ten in both Sec/Play and Situation Neutral pace (h/t Football Outsiders).

Checking in as our WR2 (by projections), Tyreek Hill finds himself in an interesting spot facing the Cowboys. Though the Cowboys defense has been good against the pass (No. 9 DVOA), the high game total and fast paced game environment takes precedence.  Despite their similar Target Shares, Hill edges out Kelce as the stacking option to prefer here because of his deep ball proclivity (27.7-percent and 21.7-percent respectively).

Game-log bros might fade the Colts after seeing the Jags skunk the Bills in Week 9 but don’t be worried. The Jaguars 49-percent Pass Success Rate allowed (No. 3) and No. 32 ranked Pass DVOA is the path of least resistance for a Colt’s team with a high 29 point implied team total (No. 4). The Jaguars are allowing 21.4 DKPt to quarterbacks (which is also our median projection). Stack Carson Wentz with Michael Pittman with a James Robinson runback to be unique.

Chris Godwin gets the PFF No. 1 graded WR/CB matchup facing the Football Team defense. The issue here is his foot injury that has caused him to miss practice all week. He plays in the early set of games though, so we’ll know ahead of time whether to pivot. If he goes, he’s near a lock play given the matchup and game total (30.5). If he misses, Mike Evans is a very strong play.

With the news that Aaron Rodgers will miss Sunday’s game after testing positive for COVID-19, Jordan Love becomes our Upside Finder’s top play at quarterback. Love checks all the boxes we love in an upside-streamer: he’s bargain-priced, has a great matchup, and has a solid supporting cast. Near the minimum price, his $4400 tag only requires him to score around 18 DKPt for tournament viability. This value also opens up pricey spend-ups at other positions as well.

Having the Broncos stack not pan out last week would dissuade some from chasing matchups but I love pain. The Dolphins rank dead last in Passing Yards Allowed and Sack Percentage (304 Passing Yards Per Game/ 3.58-percent Sack Rate). Brandin Cooks gets one of the best matchups on the slate yet projects under 2-percent ownership. His 41.9-percent Air Yards Share leads the league at the position and his 29.2-percent Target Share is also good for No. 6. My stack preference here is a Texans skinny stack with a Mike Gesicki runback.

Here’s Jeudy! Well, hopefully! Jerry Jeudy looks to be on track to play Sunday in his first game of action since being injured in Week 1. Although there isn’t much to go on as far as his metrics (for this season) we do know he led all Bronco receivers with a 21.2-percent Target Share in 2020. We also know his opposition this week is playing really bad football.

Josh Allen checks in as our top ranked quarterback and looks to be it at the position. Priced up to $8,100 (as he should be), Allen is in a fantastic spot facing the Miami Dolphins. The Bills have the slate’s highest implied team total (31.5) and one of the best matchups for quarterbacks to boot. No clowning around, pair him with his favorite target, Stefon Diggs, who’s seeing a massive 26.4-percent (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share.

DeAndre Hopkins certainly deserves a mention given his team’s massive team total (32.25) against his former team. Hopkins has yet to put up a 100-yard game with a touchdown but that is well within his range of outcomes. Kyler Murray’s proclivity to spread the ball around has rightfully scared off some fantasy gamers from paying up for Hopkins. However, he edges out his teammates with a 20.8-percent Target Share and also separates himself with his touchdown production.

Patrick Mahomes posted his highest yardage total in Week 6 and looks to pick up where he left off for Week 7. Of the highest-totaled Week 7 games, the Chiefs/Titans game has the closest Vegas point spread (5.5). The game itself has the highest game total (57.5) and seems the likeliest for a shootout (or whatever it’s called when you’re having to keep up with Derrick Henry).