Upside Plays

Tyler Lockett is the most volatile fantasy football wide receiver in the league. He carries a Weekly Volatility mark of 14.4, showing extremely fantasy scoring oscillation. A true boom-or-bust archetype, Lockett looks primed for a breakout game against the Jets. And at a salary of $7,200 on DraftKings with low projected rostership, he’s a leverageable GPP asset.

Amari Cooper is being overlooked in a potential blowup spot with low projected rostership. The Andy Dalton revenge game narrative comes into play, with the quarterback facing his former team for the first time. If Dalton elevates his play against the Bengals, the Cowboys receivers benefit. And Cooper, who’s seen an increase in targets in each of his past four games, figures to be the biggest beneficiary and the lowest-rostered Cowboys receiver.

Corey Davis ranks No. 4 among qualified wide receivers with 11.4 Yards Per Target, while averaging 2.88 (No. 2) Yards Per Route Run with a 33.1-percent (No. 19) Air Yards Share. This week’s game has the second-highest over/under of the week, providing plenty of opportunity for another trip to the end zone against a Jaguars team that has allowed the fifth-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. At just $5,700 we can’t pass up the upside.

Will Fuller’s suspension, coupled with Kenny Stills’ release and Randall Cobb’s absence due to a foot injury, unlocked third-year wide receiver Keke Coutee. He finished as the WR8 in Week 13 with eight receptions for a career-high 141 yards. The depleted Texans wide receiver corps ensures Coutee will continue to be the recipient of a high Target Share over the next few weeks. His knack for explosive plays makes him a great play at $5,000, even in a matchup with the Bears. 

Brandin Cooks has seen 57 targets over the last seven games, averaging six receptions and 83 yards per game over that stretch. This game against the Colts has an over/under of 51.5 points, opening the door for a ceiling game from Cooks. At $5,600, he presents massive upside compared to the guys near his price point.

Michael Pittman will continue to operate as the Colts’ No. 1 wide receiver against a Texans secondary that has allowed the 10th-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers. This game is tied for the highest projected point total of the week, so the chances of it shooting out are high. Assuming Pittman gets back to the efficiency we saw prior to Week 12, he will deliver his best performance to date. At $4,900, we can’t pass on that type of upside. 

No stranger to the boom-or-bust life, Adam Thielen has scored two TDs in each of his past two games. He recorded 32.3 fantasy points in Week 12 and 20.2 in Week 11. Prior to that, however, he notched two straight games with five fantasy points. His up-and-down weekly oscillation distils out in the form of a 10.6 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility score. Primed to feast against the Jaguars, Thielen returns to his No. 1 role alongside talented rookie Justin Jefferson.

A volatile fantasy asset with an 8.4 (No. 23) Weekly Volatility mark, Allen finds himself on a hot streak. He’s scored in five consecutive games. Poised for another blowup game, Allen draws a beatable matchup against the Patriots. He faces primary coverage from Patriots cornerback Jonathan Jones, who’s allowed five TDs this season. It’s an exploitable matchup for Allen, who’s rostership projects to be lower than 10-percent.

Jerry Jeudy’s 6.0 (No. 74 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility mark signals a moderate degree of fantasy scoring fluctuation. However, his lack of producing a ceiling game yet directly affects that score. That, coupled with predictive Air Yards metrics, show that he makes for a compelling play this week. He also brings an affordable salary ($5,100) and low projected rostership. He offers gamers a ticking time bomb of slate-breaking upside.

What if I told you that 32.6-percent of Mike Williams’ targets came in the form of Deep Targets? His 9.9 Unrealized Air Yards per target rank No. 3 among receivers who have seen at least 30 targets this season. Even then, he averages 17.3 (No. 11) Yards per Reception. A boom-or-bust archetype, Williams has posted 20 or more fantasy points in two of his past six game and five or fewer points twice. That amounts to a 9.2 (No. 17) Weekly Volatility mark of 9.2 – bordering on extreme volatility.

D.J. Chark holds a 33.8-percent (No.13) Air Yards Share, so as long as Jake Luton is looking downfield, Chark will benefit as we saw in his 146-yard outing in Week 9. While the Steelers feel like an intimidating matchup, they actually rank middle of the pack against the pass and are tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers. We know Chark can produce the boom weeks and he will likely see low ownership because of the matchup despite the $5,700 price tag on DraftKings.

All three of Pittsburgh’s starting wideouts saw double-digit targets and found the end zone in Week 10. But it’s Diontae Johnson who has seen 10 or more targets in five of nine games this season, with 39 targets over the last four. This Steelers-Jaguars game features two high-volume passing offenses, so despite the low over/under, Johnson will still see plenty of opportunity to rack up fantasy points against one of the league’s worst pass defenses. You can’t go wrong at $5,900.

In what profiles as a smash spot for Dallas receivers, large-field GPPs gamers should target CeeDee Lamb. Priced in between Amari Cooper ($6,900) and Michael Gallup ($5,400) on DraftKings, Lamb ($5,800) offers leverage at low projected rostership. Minnesota has yielded 19 receiving touchdowns so far this season and allows +4.09 fantasy points above the mean to opposing receivers, both the sixth-most in the league.

Chase Claypool’s volatile nature coupled with the overall talent of the Steelers receiving corps makes pinpointing his blowup weeks tough. However, he’s a threat to take it to the house each time he touches the ball and his heady ceiling can’t be ignored. Despite his success, he is an undervalued GPP asset this week with low projected rostership in a matchup against Jacksonville.

The Jerry Jeudy breakout is in full swing. The first-rounder from Alabama has seen 24 targets over the last two weeks. He received 14 of those in Week 9, converting seven for 125 yards and a touchdown in last Sunday’s loss to the Falcons. Jeudy has scored twice in the last five weeks and has been particularly dominant over the last two, thanks to a noticeable bump in usage within the Denver offense. His DraftKings salary of $5,600 is not in line with his recent performance. Take advantage.

Christian Kirk has been hot over the last three games, finishing as a top-15 wide receiver with seven or more targets in each. Kirk has a 17.4 (No. 10 among qualified wide receivers) Yards Per Reception average and a 32.2-percent (No. 8) Dominator Rating. With the Bills likely focused on locking down DeAndre Hopkins—much like the Dolphins did—Kirk is in line for another high Target Share. With another boom week looming, he’s a nice play at $5,700.

John Brown ($5,300 DraftKings salary) appears back to full health after dealing with a knee injury that forced him to miss two games and hampered his play when he did suit up. The differential between Brown’s 197 (No. 68 among qualified wide receivers) Completed Air Yards and 310 (No. 25) Unrealized Air Yards means a boom week looms on the horizon with consistent volume.

Brandin Cooks carries the No. 14-ranked Weekly Volatility score, which signals his extremely volatile fantasy scoring nature. In regard to the metric, values over 10.0 are considered very volatile. But he also brings a 30-point ceiling to the table and carries a salary ($5,600) that’s $1,000 cheaper than teammate Will Fuller ($6,700). He’s trending in the right direction post-Bill O’Brien and possesses the ability to produce a slate-breaking performance at low rostership.

With an incredible 24.6 career Yards Per Reception average, Marvin Hall saw greater opportunity in Week 8 with Kenny Golladay exiting early with an injury. He took full advantage, showing off his explosive ability with 113 yards on four receptions. At $3,800, it’s hard to resist the upside Hall brings vs cost. He will see a Vikings defense that has allowed the third-most yards per pass attempt (8.5) and the third-most Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers.

Even with Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster playing ahead of him, Chase Claypool has been incredibly efficient with his opportunities. We know he is capable of massive boom weeks, and Week 9 has all the makings of being one of those outings. With Diontae Johnson battling through injuries seemingly every week, the Steelers will lean on their star rookie more often. He is reasonably priced at $5,700 on DraftKings.