Upside Plays

Mike Williams offers a main slate leverage play off of Keenan Allen for Week 9, with an enticing $5,100 salary on DraftKings and projected rostership at less than 10-percent. His 11.0 Weekly Volatility mark ranks No. 7 among qualified wide receivers and denotes his extreme fantasy scoring fluctuation. With the weather becoming more volatile week-to-week, indoor matchups like this one at SoFi Stadium against the Raiders offer static environments that favor scoring.

With a bye week to prepare the Jaguars offense under Jake Luton, it’s a low-key smash spot for D.J. Chark against the Texans. Houston’s secondary allows +6.90 fantasy points above the mean to opposing receivers, the fourth-highest mark in the league. Chark carries his lowest salary of the season ($5,500) on DraftKings, where it dipped below $6,000 for the first time. His rostership projects to be minimal, offering leverage in a game with a projected total of 50.5 points.

Brandon Aiyuk has a 97.5-percent (No. 15 among qualified wide receivers) Route Participation rate and has drawn six (No. 18) Red Zone Targets. He has displayed impressive ability as a runner on jet sweeps and in Yards After Catch, where he ranks No. 24 at his position. He draws a dream matchup in Week 8 against a Seattle team that has been historically bad against the pass and has surrendered the most fantasy points to wide receivers. Fire him up at a reasonable $5,800 on DraftKings.

The top two receivers for the Jets, Breshad Perriman and Jamison Crowder, are likely to miss Week 8, so Denzel Mims will operate as the WR1 against the Chiefs. He will be peppered with garbage time targets with the Jets being massive underdogs in this one. With 4.38 speed, he is capable of beating a defense for a big play, a key trait in a good tournament play. This pick can easily go south, but at $3,200 it would be a mistake to not get Mims into some Week 8 lineups.

Coming off a bye and carrying the fourth-highest Weekly Volatility score (14.1), Justin Jefferson offers a massive ceiling at low projected rostership. In a divisional showdown against the Packers with the chance for fireworks given the 51.5 over/under, it’s a potential smash spot for the rookie. His $6,500 salary on DraftKings doesn’t reflect his potential for another blowup game, and his rostership projects to be lower than 10-percent.

Henry Ruggs faces a Browns secondary that hemorrhages fantasy points to wide receivers. Cleveland allows +13.63 fantasy points above the mean to the position, the second-highest mark in the league. Ruggs’ boom-bust volatility hasn’t peaked yet, evidenced by his modest 7.8 (No. 30 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility score. Still, gamers won’t want to miss out when he hits for 6-150-2 and melts faces on his way to winning tournaments.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s Weekly Volatility score of 6.6 creeps toward volatile fantasy scoring oscillation, but he’s suffered through more bust weeks than boom weeks. Following a top-12 fantasy finish at the position in Week 1 with 19.6 points, he’s failed to reach 10 fantasy points in a game. However, signs of a looming MVS breakout game abound. In addition, his price point on DraftKings ($4,100) offers roster construction flexibility at low projected rostership.

Coming off a two TD performance and his best fantasy outing of the season (27.9 points) Mike Williams’ salary ($4,700) doesn’t match his upside. A poster boy for Weekly Volatility, his 11.7 rating ranks No. 8 and shows maximum fluctuation in fantasy scoring. In four games this season, he’s busted twice and boomed once. With Justin Herbert’s willingness to chuck it, the duo figures to log more dynamic showings. Why not against the Jaguars?

The Week 7 matchup with Seattle makes for the perfect setting for a volatile playmaker like Christian Kirk to go off. The Cardinals are 3.5-point underdogs in a game with a 55.5 point total over/under. The Seahawks have allowed 64.2 Fantasy Points per Game to wide receivers this season. The next closest team is the Vikings at 49.3. Despite all this, Kirk is priced at $4,900 on DraftKings this week. Get him in lineups.

While he has struggled to match last season’s breakout numbers to this point, D.J. Chark’s usage is encouraging and will lead to more production going forward. Jacksonville, who averages 43.0 (No. 4) Team Pass Plays per Game, are a 7.5-point underdog against the Chargers this week. Los Angeles ranks in the bottom half of the league in Fantasy Points per Game allowed to wide receivers. This may be the week we see a big Chark performance and he’s only priced at $5,500.

Will Fuller comes off a “down” game in which he posted 15.8 (No. 23 among qualified wide receivers) fantasy points, but his 34 routes run in Week 5 marked a season-high. He’s also found paydirt in three straight games, seeing a combined 15 targets over the past two. Considering his volatile nature, evidenced by a 8.7 (No. 23) Weekly Volatility score, and the fact that he hasn’t truly boomed yet this season, count me in. Few players offer the kind of massive ceiling he provides.

With his skillset, it’s a matter of time before Darnell Mooney pops off for two TDs and 100-plus yards. At the bare minimum of $3,000 on DraftKings, he’s an ideal upside dart throw with low projected rostership. Carolina’s secondary poses an intimidating matchup, and the Panthers don’t yield a ton of fantasy points. Still, Mooney should fly under their radar and projects to see the most of Troy Pride, the No. 125-ranked player in PlayerProfiler’s cornerback rankings.

Justin Jefferson has been targeted down field and has been efficient with those targets. As is true with any rookie, he’ll be inconsistent and post some duds like we saw in Week 5, but he has shown us the ability to put up huge numbers in the right matchups. Week 6 has the makings of one of those weeks. The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most Fantasy Points per Game to opposing wide receivers and this game is expected to shoot out with a 54.5 projected point total.

A.J. Brown returned to Tennessee’s lineup with a strong performance in Tuesday night’s 42-16 win over the Bills. This week’s game against the Texans has a projected total of 54.5 points, among the highest of Week 6, so there should be plenty of opportunity for Brown to see targets and score again. It’s extremely rare to find a team’s alpha WR1 priced under $6,000 on Draftkings but that’s exactly what we have with Brown this week. Fire him up at a shockingly low $5,600.

Robby Anderson has out-targeted D.J. Moore 35 to 32 through four weeks with the team using him in a more dynamic role than he ever saw with the Jets. He draws a Falcons defense in Week 5 that is dealing with injuries to Keanu Neal (hamstring), Ricardo Allen (elbow) and Darqueze Dennard (hamstring). Week 5 sets up perfectly for a massive outing and, get this, he’s still under $6,000 on Draftkings.

The Falcons are likely to find themselves in another shootout in Week 5 with a total points over/under of 54.5 against Carolina. Olamide Zaccheaus profiles as an effective slot guy who is best comparable to Jamison Crowder. The ceiling may not be as high in regards to explosive plays for what we like in GPPs. Still, the pieces are in place for him to far out-produce his $3,000 cost on Draftkings, which ultimately makes him a great play even in tournaments.

Tee Higgins’ 7.3 (No. 37 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility score borders on extreme fantasy point scoring oscillation. Still, he averages over seven targets per game and offers tantalizing upside in Week 5. He ranks top-10 in Unrealized Air Yards with 234 (No. 10) and Deep Targets with seven (No. 8), smoke signals that a blowup game awaits. That his price on DraftKings ($4,900) and minimal projected rostership doesn’t reflect his upside makes exposure to Higgins a must this week.

A vulnerable asset, Michael Gallup’s 9.6 (No. 16) Weekly Volatility mark pinpoints his boom-or-bust nature. He’s notched one explosive performance with 25.8 (No. 7) fantasy points and three duds where he scored fewer than 10.0 fantasy points, but finds himself in a good spot against the Giants. His primary matchup against Isaac Yiadom, ranked No. 120 among cornerbacks, is his easiest to date this season, and the Cowboys should scheme to get him the ball.

DeVante Parker has a mouth-watering Week 4 matchup with the Seahawks, who have become the first team in NFL history to allow 1,200 passing yards in three games. With the Seattle offense playing as well as it has, Game Script should call for heavy pass volume on the Miami side. Parker is only $5,700 on Draftkings in a week where he can feasibly finish as a top-five wideout.

Tee Higgins has seen his Snap Share increase every week and is now a starter in this Bengals offense. He draws a Jaguars defense in Week 4 that allowed Ryan Fitzpatrick to set a Dolphins franchise record, completing 90-percent of his Week 3 pass attempts. It might feel like chasing points, but the peripherals say he’s here to stay. At $4,500 on Draftkings, this future alpha is a nice Week 4 value play.