Upside Plays

We approached our Sleeper play via correlation and game-stacking in a Jaguars vs. Chiefs contest that was projected by Vegas to be the highest-scoring game of Week 10. While the offenses did not live up to that hype, we picked out the alphas and nearly smashed the three-legger. Christian Kirk was the Jacksonville No. 1 again. He put up a season-high nine receptions on 12 targets for 105 yards, including two touchdowns. On the other side, Travis Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving. Kelce had six receptions on seven targets for 81 yards and the receiving touchdown we needed. However, despite throwing for 331 yards on 35 pass attempts, Mahomes only needed 26 completions to get there. This ruined a 5x profit parlay cash for us by just one pass. Sheesh.

The Titans coaching staff are experts in ruining a party. They killed Tennessee’s Tanne-thrill ride when they thought A.J. Brown could be replaced by Treylon Burks. Tannehill’s 13 (No. 25) fantasy points per game are the lowest mark he’s seen since his 2012 rookie season. The arm talent is still there. He’s delivering a 7.8 (No. 13) Accuracy Rating and a 79.7-percent (No. 11) Catchable Pass Rate. Running under 24 pass plays per game, the veteran has only eclipsed 200 yards in three of his seven games this season. In those each of those games, he’s produced at least 19 fantasy points. Green Bay has kept anemic passing offenses at bay and can’t stop the run. This is the perfect formula for a disappointing low-end QB2 performance from Tannehill. Tannehill has big game upside, and he’s a boom-or-bust start in deeper 2QB/Superflex leagues.

After melting faces and averaging over 23 fantasy points per game in weeks seven, and eight, D.J. Moore has crashed down to earth unable to eclipse seven fantasy points per game the past two weeks. The return of Baker Mayfield under center for the Panthers only adds to the gloom and doom of D.J. Moore’s fantasy prospects. Once a chalky play on the slate, Moore is perhaps the most intriguing contrarian play of the week against a Ravens secondary that has been exploitable at times this season. I would consider some tournament exposure.

Mack Hollins took on a greater role in the Raiders offense last week with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller placed on injured reserve. Hollins saw 140 Air Yards and six targets. However he only scored 3.8 fantasy points. The average depth of target remains high a 15.4 yards (no. 5). However, the increase in targets adds a bit more sturdiness to his fantasy floor. He is a recommended play in all formats.

We are halfway through the regular season already. Welcome back to my written series on the NFL’s best pick ‘em player props: Week 10! As usual, I will review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

Amari Cooper returns from a bye week as the undisputed target hog on the Browns. He has topped 100 Air Yards in three of his past four games including a 126 Air Yards showing in Week 8 in which he finished as the WR7. Look for Cooper to continue his fantasy dominance against an exploitable Dolphins secondary this week.

The Dolphins were No. 9 in fantasy points allowed to receivers entering Week 9, where they allowed seven receptions and a touchdown to Darnell Mooney. Miami has allowed at least 24 points in six games this season, with teams passing often in shootouts against the Dolphins’ fast offense. If Cleveland finds itself in a shootout, Cooper will be utilized exponentially more.

The Packers have not allowed over 220 passing yards since Week 3, snagging four interceptions over their last three games. Green Bay’s secondary has shown an ability to contain opposing receiving corps well this season. They do have some injuries on the defense, but Jaire Alexander and company have the secondary locked down. Expect the Cowboys to instead attack the Packers’ suspect run defense. Prescott has a tough fantasy matchup this week.

Vegas has the total points line of this game set at 49.5. The total is tied for the highest on the Week 9 Sunday slate. This means the books expect offense. It is no surprise that since the departure of Davante Adams, the No. 1 option in this Packers attack has been Aaron Jones. What’s been slightly difficult to project is how much of his involvement is split between rushing and receiving. While he has cleared this rushing number only three times this season, everything points to the value in the over in Week 9.

The Cardinals’ weakness on defense is yards after catch (they allow the most in the NFL). Meanwhile, Lockett is No. 55 in Yards After Catch with 83 and averaging 1.4 per target.

Marshall’s snaps, routes run, and targets have gone up each week, culminating in a 9-target Week 8 performance where he finished with 12.7 (No. 29) fantasy points. In Week 7, Carter had a 94-percent Snap Share, saw 7 targets, and finished with over 70 Air Yards.

D.J. Moore has graduated to the paying up section after two consecutive face melting performances as the Panthers primary offensive weapon. He has seen double digit targets in back-to-back weeks and saw 250 Air Yards last week which included this dope pass from P.J. Walker. Look for D.J. Moore to continue on this trend against Eli Apple and the Bengals in week nine. This is likely the last time he is priced below $6,000, get him in your cash lineup while you can, although he may be too chalky for tournaments.

For the second consecutive week Darnell Moony is the top Air Yards Value play. He finished last week with 12 fantasy points securing five receptions for 70 yards. Mooney posted these numbers despite seeing a season low 28 Air Yards, a figure that will likely increase to his season average of 70.9 this week. He remains an intriguing play in all formats heading into a potential barnburner against the Dolphins.

Entering Week 8, the Raiders were the No. 4 best matchup for QBs in both passing and rushing points allowed. Las Vegas’ defense has allowed 10 passing touchdowns and gotten just one interception over its last four games. This is a juicy enough matchup to where you must consider Lawrence in a week where six teams are on bye. Comfortably fire up Lawrence this week.

Despite back-to-back poor showings, the Arizona secondary has been surprisingly solid against opposing WRs. They have allowed just two WR touchdowns in their last six games, both coming in the last two weeks to back-up WRs. Metcalf will face Byron Murphy, a top-20 CB in PlayerProfiler’s Cornerback Rankings. Metcalf was held to two receptions on seven targets last time against Arizona and Murphy.