Upside Plays

In this article, I’ll outline how to approach pick ‘ems, particularly in the NFL, so that you can construct winning pick ‘em entries like we do in the Underdog Pick Generator and in my article series containing my favorite pick ‘em plays of each week. If you find this article useful, and are drawn to playing player pick ‘ems, you can either play your own favorites or tail ours on Underdog Fantasy’s pick ‘em menu. Upon entry, use promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100-percent deposit match up to $100.

Amari Cooper has faced two top-10 cornerbacks this season and he’s finished under 5.0 fantasy points in both games this season. Adam Thielen’s three “bad” games came against defenses in the bottom third of the NFL in points allowed to WRs. Mack Hollins is discount Gabriel Davis. Low Target Share wide receivers with high Snap Shares and Route Participation plus top-10 Average Target Distance.

Chris Olave, the Air Yards king, returns to the main slate this week. He impressively is the Air Yards triple crown leader currently ranked first in all major Air Yards related categories. He is a must play in all formats regardless of who is starting at quarterback for the Saints this week and whether Michael Thomas and/or Jarvis Landry are active.

Darnell Mooney’s fantasy’s relevance has been inextricably tied to Justin Fields passing attempts. With Fields passing the football at least 20 times a game from week four onward, Mooney has averaged 99 Air Yards per game, and seen at least five targets in each outing. He is an absolute cash game value this week against the Cowboys and has the chance to go off for over 100 Yards and a touchdown. Mooney needs to be roster in all formats. 

With P.J. Walker at QB, D.J. Moore saw a renaissance, with the most receptions and yards he has had all season in Week 7. Prior to Week 7, Moore was already seeing a 100-percent (No. 1) Route Participation and 97.2-percent (No. 3) Snap Share. Now with a positive trend after getting a new QB throwing to him, Moore can convert that usage into fantasy points.

Taylor Heinicke isn’t that much better than Carson Wentz, with 44 (No. 2) interceptable passes and 6.9 (No. 21) Yards Per Attempt last season. The Commanders also ran the ball more than passing it last week with Heinicke starting, so don’t expect a high pass volume to help McLaurin. A TD-dependent play this week, it is best to avoid McLaurin if you have other options.

Pollard averaged 6.3 (No. 4) yards per touch through Week 5 and added 52 yards on 13 touches in Week 6. While he has just three top-30 fantasy finishes this season, Pollard is a threat for big plays any week as he chips away at Elliott’s workload. He’ll get a good shot at exploding Week 7 against the Lions.

Denver’s offense has often sputtered this season. Courtland Sutton has been a serviceable fantasy asset while Jerry Jeudy has been on-and-off. Russell Wilson has disappointed, leading to shaky fantasy output from Denver weapons. Facing a good secondary and a defense that has been riding high the last few games, Denver WRs are unlikely to produce a big output for fantasy.

After a Week 4 dud in which Amari Cooper saw only four targets and scoured 1.9 fantasy points, Cooper reasserted himself as THE passing attack for the Browns in Week 5. Cooper saw 12 targets and 137 Air Yards in Week 5 and finished as the WR11 on the week. Cooper is in line to again be the focal point of the Brown passing offense. However, he is set to face a stout Patriots secondary. With this matchup unlikely to shoot out, Cooper is likely best viewed as a value-based cash game option.

With Javonte Williams out, Melvin Gordon is the primary RB in Denver. He got over half of Denver’s RB opportunities last week and projects to see similar usage going forward. Gordon had three receptions last week and will have the opportunity to rack up targets against the Chargers’ lackadaisical defense against receiving backs. Chase the opportunity against a subpar defense and fire up Gordon this week

The Buccaneers are one of the better defenses against the run, allowing four rushing touchdowns in five games this season. They have also allowed four or less RB receptions in four out of those five games. Harris is an inefficient runner and relies on receptions and touchdowns to stay afloat for fantasy. He does not have a good matchup for those components this week.

Week 5’s Monday Night game between the Raiders and Chiefs boasts a week-high 51.5 game total. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 7.5 point home favorites while hosting the road-dog Raiders.

The New York Giants are running out of receivers. Wan’Dale Robinson has been hurt. Sterling Shepard is out for the season. Kadarius Toney has been hurt and is in the doghouse. Kenny Golladay’s dust sprained his MCL and is out for a few weeks. Now, Richie James is nursing a sprained ankle. Even Daniel Jones AND Tyrod Taylor sustained injuries last week. Saquon Barkley ran for 146 yards on 31 carries last week. Green Bay possesses the No. 5-worst run defense according to Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA metric. Barkley is the New York Giants’ offense, and he’ll need to produce for the Giants if they have any chance at being competitive. Hammer the RB1 this week.

Mike Williams has not faced a cornerback ranked inside the top-30 though. Last season, Williams played against six top-30 CBs. He failed to finish inside the top-40 WRs in each of those six weeks.

Noah Brown has been sneaky good this season. He’s top-25 in Yards Per Route Run, Yards Per Target, and Yards Per Reception. Because of injuries, he’s seen a 21.3-percent (No. 32) Target Share. Fading Marquise Brown last week was not a good call, but it’s hard to bet against Darius Slay this season. Slay is No. 3 in Coverage Rating (+45.8) and No. 3 in Catch Rate Allowed (28.6-percent).