Upside Plays

Greetings to fans and followers of frenetic and fast football. Welcome to another edition of the Pace of Play report where we shine a light on the fastest teams in the NFL. We glare at the teams who play at a funereal pace. We look at matches in the coming weeks slate that should produce a lot of plays. This allows you to maximize (or minimize) your exposure to players in those contests. Because players need to run plays to score fantasy points, this is another useful tool to look at when making lineup choices or setting DFS lineups. No need to thank us, though. Just enjoy and absorb.

Chris Olave saw over 100 Air Yards for the third consecutive week and continues to break the value index. Olave was the Saints leading receiver with with Michael Thomas hobbled by a toe injury seeing seven targets. Olave leads the league in both Air Yards and Unrealized Air Yards meaning that no matter who is throwing him the football, be it Jameis Winston, or Andy Dalton, he is going to have slate breaking potential. Olave has not reached his ceiling and is in a great spot to finally do so this week against a Seahawks secondary that was recently lit up the Detroit Lions. Olave is a must play wide receiver in all formats at his cost.

George Pickens led the Steelers with 157 Air Yards last week and is only three Air Yards behind Dionte Johnson for the season leader in Air Yards among Steelers. Pickens will likely soon be the leader among Steelers wide receivers in Air Yards with Kenny Pickett now at quarterback. Pickett had more Deep Ball Attempts in his 13 pass attempts (4) than Mitch Trubisky had all season (1). Pickens has massive blow up potential entering week five and is a great play in all formats.

Amari Cooper is looking like his old self again. After being out targeted by Donovan Peoples-Jones 11 to 6 in week one, Cooper has regained his anticipated stranglehold on the Browns passing attack. Cooper has seen double digit targets, and over 120 Air Yards each of the past two weeks.  Look for Cooper to continue his dominance this week against Falcons.

Marvin Jones continues to pace the Jaguars in Air Yards. While he has been outscored in fantasy points by both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, Marvin Jones remains the Jaguars preferred downfield target with an average target distance of 14.3 yards. If Trevor Lawrence is forced to air it out with the Jaguars going against an explosive Eagles offense, look for him to try to find Marvin Jones for a long touchdown.

Stefon Diggs melted faces on Monday night torching a Titans secondary for 148 Yards on 14 targets finishing as WR1 in week 2 with 44.8 fantasy points. Diggs is the WR1 in all of fantasy and priced $2,200 less than Cooper Kupp, and has only the fifth highest salary on DraftKings.  That just does not make sense. Even if Gabriel Davis’ ankle is well enough for him to return, Diggs will see plenty of opportunity to post another potential WR1 overall week against a Dolphins defense that was recently roasted by the Ravens.

Chris Olave has broken the Air Yards DFS Value List! The difference between Olave’s Air Yards Value Score when compared to the player second on the list is the greatest I have charted in the past three seasons I have written this article. Olave’s week two Air Yards totals are gobsmackingly absurd as he amassed 278 Air Yards and has seen the most Air Yards in the NFL this year. He is a recommended play in all formats after overtaking Jarvis Landry on the Saints depth chart.

Jaylen Waddle finished inside the top-20 last week thanks to a touchdown, but his opportunity metrics are concerning. His Target Share ranks No. 40 among wide receivers and his Slot Rate plummeted from 43.8-percent last season to 17.5-percent in Week 1. Rashod Bateman’s opportunity metrics from Week 1 show that inconsistent performances will occur. He was outside the top-50 in targets, Snap Share, and Route Participation.

Marvin Jones is top-20 in Air Yards and Routes Run. On top of that, he’s top-10 in Average Target Distance, Unrealized Air Yards, and Deep Targets. Jakobi Meyers saw a 92.5-percent (No. 16) Snap Share, 20.0-percent (No. 32) Target Share, and 32.7-percent (No. 23) Air Yards Share. On top of that, his 14.8 (No. 14) Average Target Distance in Week 1 was MUCH higher than years past where he’s been under 11.0 every season.

The perpetually under valued Brandin Cooks resides on the top of the value play list, a place he may as well call home. While some fantasy prognosticators were scared off of Cooks because of a perceived poor Texans offense and the potential emergence of sleeper candidate Nico Collins, both of those narratives were laid to rest week one. Davis Mills was sufficiently average throwing the football posting a 95.2 True Passer Rating (no. 12 among quarterbacks), and Cooks handedly out-targeted Collins 12 to 3.  Cooks is a strong play in all formats.

Corey Davis remained the Jets primary wide receiver target despite the off-season hype of second-year wide receiver Elijah Moore and rookie first round pick Garrett Wilson. Davis out targeted both of his teammates and was the Jets’ leader in Air Yards. With Joe Flacco as his quarterback, and Davis likely seeing coverage from all-pro Denzel Ward this week, I’d shy away from exposure but if forced to play him I would reserve him as a cash play only. 

Jonathan Taylor is a slam dunk. In a must-win game for the Colts, Taylor should get plenty of run. He’s currently 266 Rushing Yards away from the 2,000 yard mark. That’s a lofty goal but not out of the range of outcomes for the standout rusher. At DK Sportsbook, the Colts are 15 point road favorites. The Jaguars rank last in the league in rushing percentage allowed when trailing by 7 or more points (44-percent rate h/t RotoGrinders). Get your popcorn ready for this one.

Speaking of incentives, Cooper Kupp should have some extra motivation to finish his historic season strong. In a must-win game against division rival 49ers, Kupp also needs 12 Receptions (a feat he’s achieved once already this season) to break the single-season receiving record. He’s also 171 Receiving Yards away from a 2,000 yard receiving season. Fire up fantasy’s WR1 and find value elsewhere.

On the heels of a straight-up embarrassing romp of the Washington Football Team, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys host the Cardinals. Over the past four games, Arizona has allowed the No. 7 most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Pair Prescott up with Amari Cooper, who led the team in Week 16 with a season-high 27.5-percent Target Share.

Projecting at only 1.2-percent ownership, Dalton Schultz looks like the most overlooked piece from the Cowboys side of the ball. Schultz gets a great game environment in a weather-controlled dome in a game ranked No. 1 in Pace of Play. Schultz has shown tournament-winning upside while surpassing 20 DKPt in back-to-back games. The Cardinals have been suspect within 10 yards of the LOS allowing a 55-percent Pass Rate in that area where Shultz mostly operates.

Two weeks of rest (a missed week due to injury and a bye week) seemed to be all that was needed for Jalen Hurts to return from an ankle sprain unscathed. With more opportunities on offense and another week removed from injury, he should be deployed even more as a rusher. Despite ranking dead last in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks, the Giants have also had trouble on the ground. Hurts’ 2.3 Red Zone Carries Per Game has led to his league leading 10 Rushing Touchdowns. Giddyup!

Dallas Goedert provides a nice value/ceiling combo at $5,100. The versatile tight end has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in back to back games for the Eagles. In Weeks 13 and 15, Goedert saw Target Shares of 27-percent and 35-percent (Week 14 was a bye). While you can run Hurts naked (without a pairing), Goedert looks to be the preferred stacking option with Hurts.

George Kittle will be massive chalk, but has broken the slate in back-to-back weeks. His 40-percent Target Share in Weeks 13 and 14 are likely an outlier, but his normal Target Share outside of those weeks was still a healthy 21-percent. I believe this game is the biggest blowout on the slate and would be open to running some three-plus player stacks on the 49ers side of the ball.

Regardless if Chase Edmonds is activated from IR, James Conner is still very much in play. The Cardinals have a slate-high 30-point implied team total and some of that should be expected to be earned on the ground. The Lions rank No. 10 or worse in Rushing Yards Allowed (135/gm/avg), Rushing TD Percentage (41-percent), and aFPA (No. 4). He makes for a nice one-off too if you’re fading Kyler Murray in a lineup or two.