Value Plays

J.K. Dobbins has arguably been the most impressive rookie RB this season. He’s averaged fewer than 10 touches per game, but his efficiency has been off the charts. He boasts a 6.2-percent (No. 6 among qualified RBs) Breakaway Run Rate, highlighting his explosive playmaking ability. While he’s clearly capable of ripping off chunk plays, he also sports a 4.8 (No. 4) True Yards Per Carry mark, meaning he’s consistently churning out solid gains without his Breakaway Runs.

Ronald Jones’ status was already in doubt with a broken pinkie, but he now has landed on the COVID list, meaning he’s set to miss Sunday’s matchup with the Falcons. Leonard Fournette was a healthy scratch last week, but the Buccaneers will have no choice but to feature their offseason acquisition on early downs. Fournette had already built a rapport with Tom Brady on passing downs, averaging 4.1 (No. 18) targets per game, so we could be looking at a three-down RB at just $4500 this week.

Given his 6.0 (No. 105 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance mark and history of rushing production, Curtis Samuel should dominate short-area work and get double-digit touches against this shorthanded Denver defense. He’s been among the most efficient fantasy players this season with 2.33 (No. 9) Fantasy Points per Target and a +32.2 percent (No. 9) Target Premium. The stars are aligning for Samuel to have a career day.

Stone-minimum punt plays always help relieve salary in cash. With Denzel Mims out and Jamison Crowder highly questionable, Braxton Berrios presents the best punt option across all positions. The Seahawks have given up a ridiculous 229 receptions and 2,707 yards to receivers this year, easily the most in the NFL. The Jets are massive 13.5-point underdogs, so we can project plenty of negative Game Script.

Calvin Ridley again appears in the Paying Up section, making it three weeks in a row. Last week against a tough Saints defense, Ridley finished as the WR24 on the week with five receptions for 108 yards. He out-gained Julio Jones in both yards and Air Yards, posting 186 Air Yards to Jones’ 109 Air Yards. With Jones ruled out for Week 14’s matchup against the Chargers, Ridley will look to dominate the targets and Air Yards in the Falcons passing attack. However, his ceiling is lowered without Jones on the field.

A.J. Green has been left off the value list for a while now despite scoring high in the model. However, after 14 weeks, Green is finally priced at the stone cold minimum on DraftKings. While he appears to be dust at this point, he is still seeing plenty of snaps and routes in the Bengals offense. For a minimum price, he is a masochistic play if you are looking to pay up elsewhere.

The Chiefs are most vulnerable on the ground, so Myles Gaskin will find efficiency on his 20-plus touches this week. Even if the Dolphins do fall behind in the second half, he’s seen 37 (No. 21 among qualified running backs) targets for a 14.4-percent (No. 7) Target Share and has a 54.6-percent (No. 10) Route Participation mark. Gaskin is a bona fide Game Script-independent workhorse and should crush this week.

Jonathan Taylor faces a Raiders defense that ranks No. 31 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and just let Ty Johnson rack up 104 yards and a score on the ground. A $5800 price is still difficult to stomach in cash, but that will keep Taylor’s tournament ownership low. Most DFS gamers will be focused on the Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler tier. Pivoting down to Taylor unlocks the Michael Thomas and Julio Jones tier of high-upside and underpriced WRs.

Kareem Hunt’s opportunity numbers are inflated by the time that Nick Chubb spent on IR, but he has still received double digit carries in every game this year. The matchup against Tennessee’s lackluster defense is intriguing as well. They have given up an average of 1.56 points above expectation at the running back position this year. It is hard to trust a secondary back without stellar receiving volume at $6,300 in cash, but Hunt is a great upside play for tournaments.

David Montgomery ranks top 10 in Opportunity Share with a large sample of games played, yet is priced among secondary and part time backs. He has a true featured role in the Chicago offense. In a plus matchup against the Lions, Montgomery is a near lock in cash with his touch volume. He is still a risk in tournaments as it is hard to envision high boom potential for any player in a Mitchell Trubisky-led offense.

Devontae Booker has flashed consistent efficiency while also sporting elite explosiveness with a dominant college profile. Given what he’s shown this season and the state of the Raiders backfield, he will dominate touches against a lifeless Jets team. New York is more of a pass-funnel defense, but Las Vegas is an 8.5-point favorite. They’ll dominate Game Script and Booker will be involved throughout the game. He opens up salary on a tight slate and projects extremely well.

Denzel Mims’ signature breakout game is coming. The speedy rookie has now seen eight targets and over 100 Air Yards in three straight games. He also has a 26.4-percent (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share and a 38.6-percent (No. 8) Air Yards Share despite only five career NFL games played. It’s been tough sledding for Mims against the Patriots, Chargers, and Dolphins over the last three weeks, but now he draws the Raiders.

D.K. Metcalf makes his first appearance on the Air Yards Value Index after balling out in an island game on Monday night to the tune of 10 receptions for 177 yards. Metcalf saw over 207 Air Yards last week. His ascension in the Seahawks passing game is happening. However, he faces a tough projected matchup in Week 13 against the Giants and James Bradberry. It will be interesting to see if he continues to be fed the rock despite this tough matchup, or if Russell Wilson focuses his attention toward Tyler Lockett.

Darius Slayton’s demise post Sterling Shepard’s return reached the lowest of lows last week. Slayton, despite 63 Air Yards, finished the week with zero fantasy points. With Giants backup quarterback Colt McCoy expected to start, things may not be looking up for Slayton anytime soon despite his Air Yards totals. However, with the Giants likely facing a negative Game Script against the heavily favored Seahawks, he may find himself some garbage time Air Yards and fantasy points.

David Montgomery is now at his second-lowest price of the season and has a soft matchup against Detroit. With a 44-point total, this game doesn’t project for many touchdowns. The good news is that the Lions have allowed 21 total touchdowns to RBs this season, easily the most in the NFL. Montgomery is a high-floor RB in a smash spot. When factoring in his price, he looks like one of the best RB values on the slate.

With the Colts being 3.5-point favorites over the Texans this week, Jonathan Taylor is set up for another 20 touches. This game has a 51-point total, which is the third-highest on the slate. The Texans also rank No. 27 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and have allowed the most rushing yards and touchdowns to RBs this season. Taylor has caught at least two balls in all but two games this season, boosting his floor and making him a viable play in cash lineups. This is the eruption spot we’ve been waiting for.

What do fantasy players do with Devin Singletary at this point? He keeps getting playing time and keeps performing terribly and losing touches. A home matchup against the Chargers could provide a bounce-back performance, and Singletary has plummeted down to $5,500. There is still enough upside and snaps to justify playing him in GPPs and cash games at that price despite the negative trends.

It is hard to rely on any player in a three way time split, but that is especially true if you are not confidently investing in the leader of the committee. Darrell Henderson is too expensive to play in cash with an uncertain touch floor at $5,900, even in a plus matchup against San Francisco, but he has the upside to be viable in tournaments.

Now entering Week 12 as the league leader in Air Yards, Calvin Ridley is set to smash against the Raiders. Some DFS players may be shy to play him with Julio Jones expected to rejoin him in two-wide receiver sets. However, Ridley has exhibited a higher ceiling with Jones active, and has outscored the future Hall of Fame wide receiver in fantasy points 121.5 to 114.3 when both players are active.

Jerry Jeudy finds himself at the top spot on the value list for the second consecutive week. He disappointed greatly in Week 11, posting only 6.7 fantasy points against Miami’s tough secondary. More concerning though is that he only played 65.1-percent of the snaps as a result of an ankle injury. He has seen more than enough Air Yards to score plenty of fantasy points in any tough matchup, however his injury concerns add additional volatility.