Value Plays

With Todd Gurley officially ruled out with a knee injury, we get a cash game lock in the form of Falcons RB Brian Hill. Las Vegas has allowed the second-most rushing TDs to RBs this season, including three last week to Kansas City’s RB duo. They also rank No. 32 in Defensive Rushing DVOA, meaning Hill should have an efficient day to pair with his monster touchdown equity. This matchup also has a solid 53-point total, meaning finding exposure to it will be crucial this week.

Kyle Rudolph is the ideal punt play this week for cash lineups. With Irv Smith listed as doubtful, Rudolph should play every snap and will run more routes than his usual 17.6 per game. Adam Thielen is also out with COVID this week, so Rudolph should see a few extra shots without Thielen’s 7.6 looks per game. He’s just barely above the min-price on both sites, so he’s in play on both DK and FD.

Now down at $5500, Todd Gurley is officially priced at his lowest point of the season. This matchup with the Raiders is tied for the highest total on the slate at 55.5 points. The Falcons are also only 3-point underdogs and are at home, meaning Atlanta should experience neutral Game Script throughout the contest. Gurley’s $5500 price doesn’t factor in his multi-touchdown upside.

Kenyan Drake has been another shockingly game flow-dependent RB this season, though he has absolutely smashed his last two soft rushing matchups. The Cardinals are 2.5-point favorites against the Patriots and Drake averages 16.2 carries per game this season. He has a reasonable shot at 20 rush attempts in this premium matchup. Given the explosiveness he’s showcased in his good matchups this season, he is an excellent play to leverage Arizona pass game stacks.

Jakobi Meyers has emerged as the first, second, and third target for Cam Newton. He has seen 437 Air Yards over the last four weeks, which gives him a league-leading 43.3-percent Air Yards Share on the season. This week, he is in a game with a 49-point total, the third-highest on the slate. Houston also ranks dead-last in Defensive Rushing DVOA, meaning you can stack the run-savvy Newton with just Meyers as a nice pivot off of Deshaun Watson stacks.

Since putting up zero fantasy points in Week 4, Brandin Cooks has been on a tear. He’s seen 47 targets over the last five games, posting 411 yards and three touchdowns. He’s now seen a 23.4-percent (No. 16) Target Share on the season, which is actually ahead of Will Fuller’s 20.6-percent (No. 34) mark. Cooks is $1000 cheaper than Fuller on both sites, meaning you get a significant discount for the real WR1.

Adam Thielen is the official Air Yards value king! His presence in this section should be no surprise, having appeared here four times before. He is solidly within the top 10 at his position in both Air Yards and Air Yards Share. Coming off a week where he scored over 20 fantasy points, Thielen has a great matchup against a highly exploitable Cowboys secondary. Look for another 20-fantasy point game this week.

After a breakout performance in Week 9, and a top 35 finish at the position in Week 10, Jerry Jeudy’s $5,300 price on DraftKings has to be a glitch. Seeing almost 500 Air Yards over the past three games, Jeudy is the alpha wide receiver some predicted he would be around NFL Draft time. Despite a tough matchup against Miami, he can be deployed across all formats with confidence.

Salvon Ahmed has little long term value with a pedestrian athletic profile and Myles Gaskin set to return in the near future. But for this week against the Broncos, he should be a smash play at only $5,600. He will get the majority of the ground work and the Dolphins should have positive Game Script. That is enough to make him a good play at that price, especially in cash.

No one knows why, but Adam Gase continues to give Frank Gore ten-plus touches a week despite having the most negative Game Script of any team in the league. It does not make sense, but that touch volume continues to put Gore on the Value Rating list. He is the cheapest starting running back, but fantasy gamers have to hold their nose to play him in any format.

As if 2020 couldn’t get any weirder, Kalen Ballage was signed off the street two weeks ago and is now a featured back in the NFL. The former fourth-rounder has handled 40 touches over the last two weeks and has scored 16.4 and 15.2 DraftKings fantasy points. He also has a combined 12 red zone opportunities and nine target. At just $5600, he’s a solid cash play if you don’t want to spend $9000 on two RB spots and is good tournament leverage off of Keenan Allen and Justin Herbert.

After two tough rushing matchups against the Jaguars and Browns, Duke Johnson’s efficiency should rise against this lackluster Patriots unit. This game has serious shootout potential with two bad defenses against at least one capable offense. DFS gamers have been spoiled this season by massive shootouts with 56-point totals, making the 49-point total of this game seem modest. The over has a serious chance of hitting and Johnson presents a great opportunity to get exposure to it at low ownership.

As Miami’s all-time leading rusher with a 33.0-percent (76th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating, Duke Johnson can clearly handle a heavy workload. He’s just been miscast as a satellite back due to his 14.8-percent (93rd-percentile) College Target Share and smaller stature at 5-9 and 207-pounds. The team that miscast him for the first four seasons is his opponent this week, the Cleveland Browns. They traded Johnson away last season, setting up a nice revenge narrative.

Mike Davis offers one of the highest floors at his position with 49 (No. 3) targets, 43 (No. 2) receptions, and 127 (No. 9) Weighted Opportunities this season. Despite a difficult matchup with the Buccaneers, most cash lineups will feature Davis this week. His high-floor role and stone-min pricing allow DFS gamers to afford the premium QBs on the slate that offer the monster ceilings required to win. If you aren’t playing Davis, you are overthinking cash this week.

Despite an Air Yards Share that is tops in the league by more than two percent, Terry McLaurin is habitually underpriced on DraftKings. While it may be his abysmal quarterback situation that is driving the price down, DFS players should continue to insert him into daily lineups regardless of who is under center for Washington. Squaring off against Detroit’s horrendous passing defensive in Week 10, McLaurin is set to boom for possibly his best game all season.

Since Sterling Shepard’s return from injury, Darius Slayton’s usage in the Giant’s passing game has cratered. It reached an all-time low last week when he saw only six Air Yards. However, he maintains a high Air Yards Share as a result of being the only Giants wide receivers who can appropriately stretch the filed, evidenced by a 12.9 (No. 28 among qualified wide receivers) Average Target Distance mark. With Shepard back, Slayton is solely a tournament play who may or may not catch a deep ball.

In the six games Mike Davis filled in for Christian McCaffrey earlier this season, he averaged 17.3 fantasy points and finished as an RB1 three times. Davis boasts a 38.5 percent (No. 2 among qualified running backs) Juke Rate with 49 (No. 4) Evaded Tackles on his 128 touches. His elite receiving role, ability to create on his own and minimum salary makes him a lock in cash games.

D’Andre Swift broke the slate in Week 6 (30.3 DK points) with multiple Breakaway Runs and touchdowns, so we know it’s in his range of outcomes. Despite this, he will check in with minuscule Week 10 ownership. Most casual DFS gamers will also see the Washington defense and shy away from him. His snaps and opportunities are all trending in the right direction and we’ve already seen his explosiveness this season.

Given how Hayden Hurst has already seen four (No. 7 among qualified tight ends) Deep Targets and 412 (No. 3) Air Yards, we can expect him to pick up a few of each from Calvin Ridley, who leads the NFL in both categories. The game environment isn’t ideal. The Broncos rank No. 10 in Defensive Passing DVOA, but the Falcons defense is so bad that this game can easily shootout. Hurst projects for plenty of targets, both deep and in the red zone. He should be a cash lineup lock at his price.

Those who want to afford Dalvin Cook and Chase Edmonds in their cash lineups will likely need to pay down at one RB spot. Justin Jackson is the best pay-down option after he took command of the Los Angeles backfield last week. The Chargers are 1.5-point favorites at home against the Raiders. This game also has the third-highest total on the slate at 51.5 points. Sharp DFS gamers will want to play the RB that’s favored at home with a high total.