Value Plays

With a clear lead on Joshua Kelley and three-down ability, Justin Jackson sets up well against the Jaguars this week. They have allowed the third-most fantasy points to RBs and the fourth-most rushing yards, while being tied for the most touchdowns allowed with nine. With a 28.25 implied team total, Jackson has massive touchdown equity in this game. If the Jaguars are able to push the ball downfield and score like they were earlier in this season, this matchup has major shootout potential.

In the prior two games that Raheem Mostert missed, Jerick McKinnon averaged 19 touches for 87 scrimmage yards and scored in both. His efficiency from earlier this season has cooled off a bit, but that was expected on the increased volume. He shouldn’t catch much ownership this week. People may be concerned about JaMycal Hasty and a “bad” matchup with the Patriots, but that makes him a solid tournament option.

David Montgomery is a prime free square RB in a great spot against the Carolina Panthers. His passing down role has been incredible since Tarik Cohen’s season-ending injury. In two games post-Cohen, he’s run 66 routes and seen 14 targets from Nick Foles. He is primed for the most efficient game of his season and is playing on all three downs. Montgomery projects as one of the best values on a per-dollar basis this week.

Darnell Mooney has officially supplanted Anthony Miller as the WR2 on the Bears in two-receiver sets. Miller still maintains his coveted slot role, but Mooney is starting opposite Allen Robinson on the perimeter. He hasn’t had a signature blow-up game this season, but he has a shot against this weak Carolina defense. For those looking to afford the premium QBs and RBs this week, he’s the key to making it happen.

A familiar face tops the list as this week’s Air Yards ultimate value. We’ve discussed Adam Thielen twice before in this series. He remains the passing game in Minnesota despite the Justin Jefferson’s emergence. Thielen has cleared 100 Air Yards each week this season, finishing with over 25 fantasy points in each of the past two weeks. Facing the Falcons in Week 6, Thielen has a great matchup to exploit and has the opportunity to finish as the WR1 on the week.

With D.J. Chark trending towards being out, Chris Conley will look to take over as the field-stretching target for the Jaguars in Week 6. The last time Chark missed time, Conley saw over 160 Air Yards. However, he failed to realize any of the opportunity, posting only 6.4 (No. 66) fantasy points in Week 3 against the Dolphins. In a potential shootout with the Lions in Week 6, Conley has a chance to be on the lucky side of variance and finally realize some Air Yards.

Myles Gaskin has come from out of nowhere to lead the Dolphins backfield, but it does not seem that will change any time soon. Gaskin is a legitimate NFL starter and is still being priced in the range of committee backs. Until FanDuel increases his price, he should be a weekly part of winning lineups. In addition, Gaskin draws a great matchup this week against a Jets defense that has been torched all year.

Two things can be true. Ronald Jones will not maintain his 51.9-percent (No. 26 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share with Leonard Fournette returning from injury. Yet, Jones is still a value this week against the Packers, with his cost adjusted to match the lower expectations. James Robinson and Myles Gaskin are better plays, but Jones is a decent pivot for diversity or if their ownership levels are too high.

The Bears have a matchup with a Panthers defense that ranks No. 29 in Defensive Rushing DVOA through five weeks. Every RB not named Kenyan Drake has posted top-5 numbers against them. Even the dusty Todd Gurley managed 150 total yards and found the end zone on a long run last week against this unit. Given his usage and matchup, David Montgomery’s $5800-price tag is laughable. He projects as one of, if not the, best values this Sunday, making him the chalk in cash lineups.

Gaskin has been a high-floor asset all season thanks to his excellent receiving role. He ranks No. 6 or better in targets, Target Share, receptions, and receiving yards. He also ranks No. 3 among all RBs with 22 Red Zone Touches. That’s a massive number for someone that has only scored once. Howard was the only one stealing the coveted goal line carries, but those will belong to Gaskin now in the best spot of the season against the Jets.

While Darius Slayton’s 20.4-percent (No. 28 among qualified wide receivers) Target Share is modest, he ranks No. 4 with six Red Zone Targets and No. 11 with a 36.5-percent Air Yards Share. He is clearly their best player, and the Giants are trying to get the ball in his hands in high-leverage situations. This game against Dallas will be his best matchup of the season and he has the usage to post ridiculous numbers this week. He will be a popular cheap option for cash lineups.

Olamide Zaccheaus is also more than just a body running routes out there. While he stands 5-8, he has an above-average 40-yard dash, Burst Score, and Agility Score. He was also impressive in his college days at Virginia, posting a 36.5-percent (72nd-percentile) College Dominator Rating with a 34.1-percent (94th-percentile) College Target Share. After producing in a tough matchup with Kevin King last week, Zaccheaus is in a great spot against a Carolina secondary that ranks No. 26 in Defensive Passing DVOA.

Calvin Ridley leads the entire league with 640 Air Yards, over 120 more than than the receiver who is second on the list. Additionally, Ridley is also near the top of the league with 362 (No. 2 among qualified wide receivers) Unrealized Air Yards, meaning that he should have even more production. Coming off a Week 4 goose egg, recency bias may contribute to fewer rostering him across the DraftKings platform. Don’t fall for this trap.

Damiere Byrd saw 150 Air Yards last week from likes of Brian Hoyer and Jared Stidham. His Snap Share in the Patriots offense has continued to grow each week, seeing 100-percent of the snaps in Week 4 against the Chiefs. Byrd has also posted at least 13.0 fantasy points in the weeks that he has drawn more than 10 Air Yards. While that stat may be somewhat deceiving, his role in the Patriots offense is not. He makes for an intriguing stone cold minimum Week 5 dart throw.

On the surface, Antonio Gibson looks like a risky play this week. While the Rams defense has had strong showings, they concede bunches of fantasy points to RBs. They currently rank No. 28 in Defensive Rushing DVOA after Ezekiel Elliott, Miles Sanders, and Devin Singletary all topped 120 scrimmage yards against them. Given his usage, Gibson is a solid salary-saving RB option on this tightly-priced slate.

The Dolphins rank No. 28 and No. 31 in Defensive Passing and Rushing DVOA respectively, and have allowed Chris Carson and James Robinson to finish as top-5 PPR RBs over the last two weeks. They have also allowed the ninth-most adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders, meaning Jerick McKinnon won’t be getting hit behind the line of scrimmage like he was all last game. Even if Raheem Mostert dresses for this game, McKinnon is set up for elite RB1 production.

Damien Harris should be the free chalk play of the week. Monitor his ownership and pivot if it gets too high, but it is rare to see a back priced at only $4,500 when he’s projected for about half his team’s opportunities. He looked awesome on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs and now gets a plus Game Script matchup against the Broncos. Belichick’s RB shenanigans rightfully cause concern, but the upside with Harris is too tantalizing.

Myles Gaskin fell back to earth a bit in Week 4 after looking like a stud in Week 3’s game against Jacksonville. Part of his performance can be attributed to the excellent middle linebacker coverage in Seattle that often limits the receiving upside of RBs and TEs that face them. Still, Gaskin saw 10 of the 16 RB carries and four of eight targets at the position. With excellent overall usage at only $5,500, Gaskin is a great contrarian play in cash or GPP in another tough matchup against the 49ers.

Without the top two corners in New Orleans, this matchup with the Lions should be a shootout. That will benefit Tre’Quan Smith the most as the de facto alpha receiving option for New Orleans. Detroit ranks No. 27 in Defensive DVOA, so the Saints will have ease moving the ball even with Drew Brees’ deteriorating arm. This matchup is tied for the second-highest total on the slate at 54.5 points, so stacking this game looks viable for tournaments given these affordable prices.

Adam Trautman should slide right into Jared Cook’s role as a big-bodied move tight end having already played out of the slot on 35.9-percent of his snaps this season. He clearly has the talent and will now get the opportunity in an offense commanded by the most accurate QB of all time with a creative offensive play-caller. The game environment sets up well for this min-priced TE and he offers some much-needed salary relief for cash game lineups.