Value Plays

Is it really paying up when D.J. Moore is priced at $5,600 or is it just outright theft? The Air Yards Value Score leader entering Week 4, Moore has thus far failed to meet expectations this year, posting only one fantasy WR1 week. With 139 (No. 19 among qualified wide receivers) Unrealized Air Yards, a WR1 week is coming soon. Look for Moore to get back on track this week against the Cardinals.

John Brown has formed a formidable one-two punch with new teammate Stefon Diggs as part of a revamped Buffalo passing attack. While Diggs has averaged 20.6 (No. 6) Fantasy Points per Game to Brown’s 12.4 (No. 37) mark, it’s Smokey who leads the Bills in Air Yards through three weeks. With 171 (No. 11) Unrealized Air Yards, this may finally be the week where Brown outscores Diggs in fantasy points.

Fantasy football does not have to be hard. David Montgomery ranks No. 1 among this list of 10 players in a volume-driven metric that has no idea Tarik Cohen is out for the season. Montgomery was already seeing over 65-percent of Chicago’s opportunities and will now be a true workhorse. Nick Foles takes over the offense, which should increase the team’s play volume, touchdown potential, and efficiency. This is a rare opportunity to get this large of a projected workload at under $6,000.

Devin Singletary’s Opportunity Share and per-game numbers are inflated by Zack Moss’ Week 3 absence. Yet, Singletary has been much more involved in the passing game this season. The Bills are now among the top offenses in the league, which leaves room for both Moss and Singletary to be productive in their roles. Singletary’s red zone usage compared to Moss is worth monitoring, but Singletary is among the top plays of the week in a plus-matchup against the Raiders.

Has there ever been an RB with a 96.0-percent (No. 1 among qualified running backs) Snap Share that is under $6000? Well, we have that this week in David Johnson. In Duke Johnson’s absence, he has captured an 85.2-percent (No. 3) Opportunity Share. He is also leading the position in Route Participation, running a route on 95.8-percent of Houston’s pass plays. The stars are aligning for Johnson to have a breakout game in Week 4 against the Vikings, and $5600 isn’t much to spend to be a part of it.

If you need to go way down for some salary savings, Myles Gaskin is the best option. After hitting double-digit fantasy points in every game without even scoring a touchdown, he is a high-floor fantasy option in this spot. If he can find the end zone at least once against Seattle, which seems likely given Miami’s 24-point implied team total, Gaskin can be a tournament-winning leverage play against the chalky pass-catchers in this game.

With Sterling Shepard landing on IR, Darius Slayton is the clear alpha receiver in the Giants offense. He already showed what he can do with that role in Week 1, where he rang up 102 yards and two touchdowns on an elite Pittsburgh secondary. He is an underpriced smash play against this banged-up 49ers defense. Expect double-digit targets given New York’s offensive injuries in this soft matchup. He should be a high-floor, high-ceiling lock in cash lineups this week.

The real way to attack the Rams is on the ground. They rank No. 27 in Defensive Rushing DVOA and have allowed Miles Sanders and Ezekiel Elliott to rack up 258 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in two weeks. Devin Singletary has shown a solid receiving floor with 10 (No. 6 among qualified running backs) targets through two weeks, so we can project him for workhorse touches with no Zack Moss and a soft matchup. At $4900 on DK, he’s a solid cash game option.

A.J. Green enters Week 3 of his age-32 season leading the league in Air Yards. Unfortunately, the veteran wide receiver has translated this opportunity to only 8.0 (No. 69 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game. Leading the league in Unrealized Air Yards and ranking No. 1 on this week’s Air Yards Value model, the former Pro Bowler is at a inflection point. Is he still one of the game’s top wide receivers or is he a sell low candidate?

A devastating season-ending injury to Saquon Barkley may result in the Giants airing it out a bit more in the passing game. If they do, Darius Slayton is the clear beneficiary. He continues to lead the Giants in Air Yards and has remained efficient with his opportunities, posting a +29.3 (No. 17) Production Premium, with only 44 Unrealized Air Yards. Still priced below $5,000, Slayton will look to continue his excellent efficiency against a banged up 49ers defense.

The Jets have certainly been strong against the run, ranking No. 6 in Defensive Rushing DVOA, but David Montgomery just racked up 127 total yards against this team at 6.7 yards per touch. Jerick McKinnon’s explosiveness in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme should afford premium opportunities for fantasy points. Plus, he’s explosive catching the ball, which will be massive given the 49ers injuries at skill positions. McKinnon looks like a league-winning RB and a week-winning DFS free square.

It didn’t take long for Antonio Gibson to take over the Washington backfield. In Week 2, he received more carries and targets than J.D. McKissic and Peyton Barber combined. It should have been this way all along given Gibson’s athletic profile. The man is 6-0, 228-pounds, and runs a 4.39 (98th-percentile) 40-yard dash. He has yet to get to the second level against strong Philadelphia and Arizona fronts, but we’ll see the fireworks soon enough.

DeSean Jackson was peppered downfield with targets from Carson Wentz in Week 1, amassing 214 Air Yards, the most on the week. Unfortunately, Weintz was sacked eight times and seldom had time in the pocket to allow for downfield routes to fully develop. With right tackle Lane Johnson expected back in Week 2, look for Wentz to finally hook up with Jackson this week.

Fifth-round rookie Quintez Cephus saw a surprising ten targets with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup in Week 1. Seeing 24.4-percent of Matthew Stafford’s passes, Cephus finished No. 9 in the league in Air Yards for Week 1. He also failed to capitalize on the bulk of these targets, finishing with only 7.3 fantasy points. There’s a chance that he was plain unlucky. Priced near the minimum on DraftKings, he’s a worthy gamble to bounce back in Week 2.

It’s happening. Parris Campbell is finally breaking out. The sophomore WR dealt with a plethora of injuries as a rookie, but has finally captured a starting job for the Colts. More importantly, he ran out of the slot on an NFL-leading 55 snaps. With his 4.31 (100th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) speed and 135.5 (97th-percentile) Burst Score, he’s in the ideal role for a fantasy receiver against a Minnesota secondary that should be aggressively targeted in DFS.

The Chiefs have the third-highest implied team total at 28 points. While the Chargers play at a middling Pace (2.40 offensive plays per minute), they’ll certainly need to push it to keep up with the explosiveness of their opponent. This game environment gives Mike Williams a high target floor with a monster ceiling. That’s a pretty good combination for a guy that costs $4200.

With Marlon Mack’s season-ending Achilles injury, Jonathan Taylor is in an absolute smash spot this week. Philip Rivers carried over his career love for targeting RBs, hooking up with Taylor and Nyheim Hines for 14 of his 36 completions. Taylor saw six of those, good for No. 2 among RBs in Week 1. The Vikings are a softer matchup than most think, ranking No. 27 in Defense Rushing DVOA against the Packers last week. Should his receiving volume continue, Taylor will flirt with top-5 RB numbers.

It didn’t take long for James Conner to realize his No. 1-ranked Injury Probability. His first quarter ankle injury paved the way for Benny Snell to be featured as the poster boy of Week 2 DFS. The second-year Steelers RB reportedly slimmed down from his 224-pound frame and looked good on Monday night. James Conner has yet to practice, meaning the Steelers will likely lean on Snell regardless of his status. He’s affordable and is a lock for 20 carries in an explosive offense.

Both Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffery are trending in the wrong direction for Week 1 with their respective shoulder injuries. Even if both suited up, DeSean Jackson is set to be the dynamic element to this passing attack while the tight ends dominate the intermediate range. Rostering Jackson offers a massive ceiling and a solid floor as well.

Now that Tyrell Williams is done with a shoulder injury, Bryan Edwards has earned the starting gig as the “X” receiver in Las Vegas opposite Henry Ruggs. While Ruggs is clearly a more polished athlete, Edwards looks the part of a true alpha at 6-3, 212 pounds. This Panthers-Raiders game has significant shootout potential, and Edwards is the best way to get cheap exposure to it.