Value Plays

Chris Olave, the Air Yards king, returns to the main slate this week. He impressively is the Air Yards triple crown leader currently ranked first in all major Air Yards related categories. He is a must play in all formats regardless of who is starting at quarterback for the Saints this week and whether Michael Thomas and/or Jarvis Landry are active.

Darnell Mooney’s fantasy’s relevance has been inextricably tied to Justin Fields passing attempts. With Fields passing the football at least 20 times a game from week four onward, Mooney has averaged 99 Air Yards per game, and seen at least five targets in each outing. He is an absolute cash game value this week against the Cowboys and has the chance to go off for over 100 Yards and a touchdown. Mooney needs to be roster in all formats. 

With P.J. Walker at QB, D.J. Moore saw a renaissance, with the most receptions and yards he has had all season in Week 7. Prior to Week 7, Moore was already seeing a 100-percent (No. 1) Route Participation and 97.2-percent (No. 3) Snap Share. Now with a positive trend after getting a new QB throwing to him, Moore can convert that usage into fantasy points.

Taylor Heinicke isn’t that much better than Carson Wentz, with 44 (No. 2) interceptable passes and 6.9 (No. 21) Yards Per Attempt last season. The Commanders also ran the ball more than passing it last week with Heinicke starting, so don’t expect a high pass volume to help McLaurin. A TD-dependent play this week, it is best to avoid McLaurin if you have other options.

Each passing week of the NFL season means that we have more information about teams, players, and strengths and weaknesses of defenses.

Terry McLaurin has been predictable the past three weeks. He struggled against a top corner in Week 4 when he faced Trevon Diggs, put up top-30 numbers against a porous Titans secondary in Week 5, and finished with another bad performance against Jaylon Johnson and the strong Bears pass defense in Week 6.

Pollard averaged 6.3 (No. 4) yards per touch through Week 5 and added 52 yards on 13 touches in Week 6. While he has just three top-30 fantasy finishes this season, Pollard is a threat for big plays any week as he chips away at Elliott’s workload. He’ll get a good shot at exploding Week 7 against the Lions.

Denver’s offense has often sputtered this season. Courtland Sutton has been a serviceable fantasy asset while Jerry Jeudy has been on-and-off. Russell Wilson has disappointed, leading to shaky fantasy output from Denver weapons. Facing a good secondary and a defense that has been riding high the last few games, Denver WRs are unlikely to produce a big output for fantasy.

After a Week 4 dud in which Amari Cooper saw only four targets and scoured 1.9 fantasy points, Cooper reasserted himself as THE passing attack for the Browns in Week 5. Cooper saw 12 targets and 137 Air Yards in Week 5 and finished as the WR11 on the week. Cooper is in line to again be the focal point of the Brown passing offense. However, he is set to face a stout Patriots secondary. With this matchup unlikely to shoot out, Cooper is likely best viewed as a value-based cash game option.

With Javonte Williams out, Melvin Gordon is the primary RB in Denver. He got over half of Denver’s RB opportunities last week and projects to see similar usage going forward. Gordon had three receptions last week and will have the opportunity to rack up targets against the Chargers’ lackadaisical defense against receiving backs. Chase the opportunity against a subpar defense and fire up Gordon this week

The Buccaneers are one of the better defenses against the run, allowing four rushing touchdowns in five games this season. They have also allowed four or less RB receptions in four out of those five games. Harris is an inefficient runner and relies on receptions and touchdowns to stay afloat for fantasy. He does not have a good matchup for those components this week.

Week 5’s Monday Night game between the Raiders and Chiefs boasts a week-high 51.5 game total. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 7.5 point home favorites while hosting the road-dog Raiders.

Mike Williams has not faced a cornerback ranked inside the top-30 though. Last season, Williams played against six top-30 CBs. He failed to finish inside the top-40 WRs in each of those six weeks.

Noah Brown has been sneaky good this season. He’s top-25 in Yards Per Route Run, Yards Per Target, and Yards Per Reception. Because of injuries, he’s seen a 21.3-percent (No. 32) Target Share. Fading Marquise Brown last week was not a good call, but it’s hard to bet against Darius Slay this season. Slay is No. 3 in Coverage Rating (+45.8) and No. 3 in Catch Rate Allowed (28.6-percent).

Greetings to fans and followers of frenetic and fast football. Welcome to another edition of the Pace of Play report where we shine a light on the fastest teams in the NFL. We glare at the teams who play at a funereal pace. We look at matches in the coming weeks slate that should produce a lot of plays. This allows you to maximize (or minimize) your exposure to players in those contests. Because players need to run plays to score fantasy points, this is another useful tool to look at when making lineup choices or setting DFS lineups. No need to thank us, though. Just enjoy and absorb.

Chris Olave saw over 100 Air Yards for the third consecutive week and continues to break the value index. Olave was the Saints leading receiver with with Michael Thomas hobbled by a toe injury seeing seven targets. Olave leads the league in both Air Yards and Unrealized Air Yards meaning that no matter who is throwing him the football, be it Jameis Winston, or Andy Dalton, he is going to have slate breaking potential. Olave has not reached his ceiling and is in a great spot to finally do so this week against a Seahawks secondary that was recently lit up the Detroit Lions. Olave is a must play wide receiver in all formats at his cost.

George Pickens led the Steelers with 157 Air Yards last week and is only three Air Yards behind Dionte Johnson for the season leader in Air Yards among Steelers. Pickens will likely soon be the leader among Steelers wide receivers in Air Yards with Kenny Pickett now at quarterback. Pickett had more Deep Ball Attempts in his 13 pass attempts (4) than Mitch Trubisky had all season (1). Pickens has massive blow up potential entering week five and is a great play in all formats.