Value Plays

The Texans have allowed over 100 yards rushing to opponents in three out of four games this season. They have also allowed at least 9 RB receptions in two of those games and yielded 6 total touchdowns to RBs. Etienne is the pass-catching back in Jacksonville, seeing 11 targets to Robinson’s 7 so far this season. The matchup against Houston in Week 5 is the spot for Etienne to finally come through for fantasy owners.

While Sanders dominates RB touches now, his overall Snap Share is still less than 60-percent and Hurts is a continuous threat to take rushing touchdown opportunities. Expect the Cardinals and Eagles to play to their respective strengths in a shootout through the passing game this week. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are in for big weeks, but Sanders is in line to be left behind against a solid run defense in what will be a high scoring, passing-dominated affair.

This week was the revenge of the Running Backs in a couple of ways. First of all, they simply scored more points. For the first time this season, the top 12 running backs of the week outscored the top 12 wide receivers of the week. As for who scored those points, it was a bit of a mixed bag. Only three of the top 12 RBs were drafted as top 12 RBs, while six of the top 12 WRs were drafted as such. That being said, seven of the top 12 RBs were drafted top 24 at the position, and only Jamaal Williams qualified as a “streamer” among the top 12 finishers. This was by far the worst streaming week of the year.

Stefon Diggs melted faces on Monday night torching a Titans secondary for 148 Yards on 14 targets finishing as WR1 in week 2 with 44.8 fantasy points. Diggs is the WR1 in all of fantasy and priced $2,200 less than Cooper Kupp, and has only the fifth highest salary on DraftKings.  That just does not make sense. Even if Gabriel Davis’ ankle is well enough for him to return, Diggs will see plenty of opportunity to post another potential WR1 overall week against a Dolphins defense that was recently roasted by the Ravens.

Chris Olave has broken the Air Yards DFS Value List! The difference between Olave’s Air Yards Value Score when compared to the player second on the list is the greatest I have charted in the past three seasons I have written this article. Olave’s week two Air Yards totals are gobsmackingly absurd as he amassed 278 Air Yards and has seen the most Air Yards in the NFL this year. He is a recommended play in all formats after overtaking Jarvis Landry on the Saints depth chart.

Jaylen Waddle finished inside the top-20 last week thanks to a touchdown, but his opportunity metrics are concerning. His Target Share ranks No. 40 among wide receivers and his Slot Rate plummeted from 43.8-percent last season to 17.5-percent in Week 1. Rashod Bateman’s opportunity metrics from Week 1 show that inconsistent performances will occur. He was outside the top-50 in targets, Snap Share, and Route Participation.

Marvin Jones is top-20 in Air Yards and Routes Run. On top of that, he’s top-10 in Average Target Distance, Unrealized Air Yards, and Deep Targets. Jakobi Meyers saw a 92.5-percent (No. 16) Snap Share, 20.0-percent (No. 32) Target Share, and 32.7-percent (No. 23) Air Yards Share. On top of that, his 14.8 (No. 14) Average Target Distance in Week 1 was MUCH higher than years past where he’s been under 11.0 every season.

The perpetually under valued Brandin Cooks resides on the top of the value play list, a place he may as well call home. While some fantasy prognosticators were scared off of Cooks because of a perceived poor Texans offense and the potential emergence of sleeper candidate Nico Collins, both of those narratives were laid to rest week one. Davis Mills was sufficiently average throwing the football posting a 95.2 True Passer Rating (no. 12 among quarterbacks), and Cooks handedly out-targeted Collins 12 to 3.  Cooks is a strong play in all formats.

Corey Davis remained the Jets primary wide receiver target despite the off-season hype of second-year wide receiver Elijah Moore and rookie first round pick Garrett Wilson. Davis out targeted both of his teammates and was the Jets’ leader in Air Yards. With Joe Flacco as his quarterback, and Davis likely seeing coverage from all-pro Denzel Ward this week, I’d shy away from exposure but if forced to play him I would reserve him as a cash play only. 

Do the Minnesota Vikings have what it takes to dethrone Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers this year? The Vikings certainly have a talented roster, but as with all rosters a lot depends on the play of the quarterback, and no quarterback has been maligned as much by their respective fan base as Kirk Cousins.

Cooks is no stranger to producing in the face of adversity. He’s proved repeatedly no matter who is in charge of getting him the ball, he will produce. He’s posted six 1,000-plus yard seasons in eight pro seasons, doing so with four different teams over that span. Throughout his tenure, he finished the season outside the top 24 wide receivers in Fantasy Points Per Game merely once.

Brandin Cooks provides value in every league format, especially for those who prefer a Hero RB or Robust RB approach. The fact that he can be had after Tyler Lockett (ADP 46.5), Gabriel Davis (ADP 66.3), and Darnell Mooney (ADP 63.3) in Underdog is criminal. To make matters worse he is equally overlooked in dynasty leagues. He is currently being drafted as the 38th wide receiver off the board in dynasty startups, following aging and less opportune players such as Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett and Odell Beckham.

Every NFL season, millions of fantasy football players around the globe lose leagues as their “stud” early round selections fall flat on their backs. The phrase “forgive and forget” is widely under-appreciated by the fantasy community. With special thanks to the advanced stats and metrics available on PlayerProfiler (and a bit of logic), we among the underworld strive to overcome our biases and find 2022 quarterback bust bounceback candidates among the sea of disappointment.

Late round quarterback has always been a viable fantasy football strategy and continues into 2022. Having a young stud is always nice, but there are plenty of available starters that will absolutely be on championship rosters. Russell Wilson is the least expensive QB1 this offseason. Other players like Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo present a strong case as value selections in fantasy drafts.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

James Conner, David Montgomery, and Antonio Gibson are all cash and tournament viable in Week 18, making for great plays. Myles Gaskin and Zack Moss at this moment in time look like players to fade. Check the news updates for the early games and the late games in the event there are some unexpected surprises. 

The Terry McLaurin contrarian play narrative continues after an underwhelming 7 fantasy point performance last week in a blow out against the Cowboys. McLaurin has still seen at least 65 Air Yards the past four games despite averaging 4.8 fantasy points per game during this time span. Something has to give. Perhaps it does this week against the Eagles.

Marvin Jones and the Jaguars have an implied team point total of 13 points against a stout Patriots defense this week. He is perhaps a bit too contrarian of a play despite finishing as the WR20 last week seeing 157 Air Yards. However, at only $4,400 he makes for a low cost tournament dart though that has the peripheral stats to greatly outperform that price.