Draft Strategy

We only have one season’s worth of decision making from which to draw conclusions about the way that Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi want to run this team. But with Justin Herbert at quarterback, it seems reasonable that they would continue to be a pass-heavy team going forward. This is a team with both the propensity and the personnel to air it out.

Austin Ekeler has not needed an incredible share of opportunity in this backfield to be an effective fantasy contributor. We should expect him to be productive once again in 2022. Outside of Isaiah Spiller, nobody else on this team should have much fantasy value. He’s just inside my top-10 rookie running backs. Mostly on the strength of the quality offensive situation he landed in. Leddie Brown is vaguely interesting as a very deep dart throw.

You’ll likely find yourself on the clock in the third, fourth, and sometimes fifth round of your rookie draft with very few attractive options. Whether it’s bad draft capital, poor athleticism, or uninspiring production, the players here have more red flags than Ron Swanson’s ex-wives. But that doesn’t make the selection pointless. On the contrary, navigating these later rounds (the RB rounds) properly can give you a significant edge over your leaguemates.

Forget trying to find the next Darnell Mooney needle in a haystack of future supermarket employees. Instead, once Round 3 rolls around, just toggle off the other positions and queue up any RB capable of latching onto an NFL depth chart. Remember, your odds of finding the next WR1 or RB1 at the 3.09, 4.05, or 5.11 are exceptionally low, and that’s okay. If you can squeeze three or four games of RB2 production out of a pick that late, you’re doing just fine.

If you couldn’t get enough of the PlayerProfiler vs. RosterWatch rivalry, we’re back with the second installment in the Summer of Collaboration series of fantasy football mock drafts with RosterWatch. Did the Underworld successfully defend the mock drafting crown? Did anyone plant any outrageous flags? Who actually wins in a mock draft of any sort? If there is a way to win, you can bet that the six mock drafters on the Underworld side of the ledger will ride PlayerProfiler’s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics all the way to a successful defense of the mock drafting heavyweight championship of the world.

The running back “dead zone” is dead. Dead zone running backs have traditionally been those backs drafted in rounds three through six of fantasy drafts the past two seasons. But a shift is about to take place. The RB Dead Zone will be the fertile ground out of which multiple RB1s will be harvested in fantasy leagues in 2022. Start adjusting your draft plans now.

If you are really concerned about missing out on a first-round running back, keep in mind Leonard Fournette, Tony Pollard and A.J. Dillon will also still be available after round 6 (past the dead zone). There are plenty of upside RB’s available in rounds 3-8 in 2022, leaving you tons of flexibility to not take running backs in rounds 1-2. The RB dead zone is the place to be in 2022! IT’S ALIIIIIIVE!!!

It is Playoff season when it comes to the National Fantasy competitions. If you aren’t currently competing in these national competitions, you are missing out on one of the most fun and possibly most profitable aspects of Season-Long Fantasy Football. We are going to be looking at the “Mini Majors.” These are national competitions with overall prize pools ranging from $150,000-$500,000 for modest buy-ins of $200-$350.

One of the biggest things I noticed when looking through Chad Schroeder’s TFC team was that he used both waiver runs each week. He also commented on both teams about a key player he picked up on those second runs. That is a huge free nugget we got from the best fantasy football player in the world. Pay attention to those second waiver runs. Keep hammering each and every waiver wire of the season from Week 1 until they lock you out and throw away the key.

Hero RB drafters are sitting comfortably watching their stud running backs smash while also having enjoying league winning production from wide receivers drafted in the middle rounds of fantasy football drafts. The 2021 season shows once again why running backs are the backbone of championship fantasy teams.

Luckily for those who missed the boat on the early round studs such as Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler, the fantasy football season isn’t won or lost at the draft. While Hero RB gives a slight advantage, what I have taken from this thought experiment is to not lock into a specific draft strategy. Take the draft room as it comes and capitalize on players that fall. Keep the good process of drafting good players and good things will happen.

In a study by J.J. Zachariason, 54 running backs were drafted between Rounds 7 and 15 behind a top-12 running back from 2011-2017. Of those, 32 offered three or fewer top-24 finishes. This means a majority of the time you select a handcuff, you will have three or less useable weeks. That also includes games in which they score a random touchdown, or take over after a mid game injury when you would have left them on the bench.

Taking Alexander Mattison on a team with Ezekiel Elliott allows you the chance to stack hoards of receivers and an elite tight end, with the possibility of starting both Mattison and Elliott should Dalvin Cook get injured. That’s a team others cannot replicate or compete with. Drafting a handcuff to your own running back takes the possibility to benefit from chaos off the table. You can derive only benefit at your own expense.

If there’s one thing that’s certain heading into every NFL season, it’s this: Russell Wilson will be hyper efficient throwing touchdowns, and Tyler Lockett will catch a ton of them. Overall, Wilson and Lockett have a special connection when it comes to deep ball touchdowns. At Lockett’s price, managers can construct builds which can protect themselves from the bust weeks, while also being able to take advantage of the guaranteed wins the stack offers.

The argument that Najee Harris takes production away from a Ben Roethlisberger-Chase Claypool stack can be flipped on its head: by adding a talented running back, who’s to say that this offense doesn’t become more efficient, thus granting Claypool more opportunities to produce? We’ve seen direct evidence of this when Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Le’Veon Bell were all elite in 2017. As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats.

Darren Waller has shown he can produce with the very best tight ends, and receivers, in the NFL. His path to continued targets is clear, for this year and beyond. While his age is a concern, his recent breakout means his metaphorical tires have less tread than players younger than him. There’s little standing in the way of him producing as a top tight end for the foreseeable future.

There are reasons to think twice about spending a premium pick on George Kittle. An injury history for a player approaching age 30 can never be ignored, especially in dynasty formats. The 49ers other receiving options are much more talented than they were when Kittle first broke onto the scene. But the Tight End University founder’s superstar talent is undeniable. His statistical profile points to the same conclusion as the eye test. He is a special player who will be a top fantasy tight end for years to come.

The disrespect with D.J. Moore’s talent and production hurts my feelings. In 2019 and 2020, Moore showed the ability to run deep and intermediate routes and still produce. As WR23 in the World Famous Draft Kit rankings, he boasts the opportunity and ability to produce WR1 type numbers. Overall, he looks like a receiver in the early rounds that can provide WR1 type production, and it’s reasonable for him to take the leap in 2021.

Why draft Mecole Hardman at pick 85.9 as WR41 when you can draft K.J. Hamler as one of your last-round picks? Hamler’s Best Comparable Player being DeSean Jackson fits the speedster profile. He possesses similar skills and almost identical upside as Hardman, yet goes near 100 picks later. Use the drafting backward strategy to scour the player pool and prioritize Hamler as one of your final-round picks