Draft Strategy

Any pick you make in earlier rounds has ramifications for later round selections; this is part of the opportunity cost. If you take Josh Jacobs at pick No. 45 as your RB3, this makes later round options such as Gus Edwards, Zack Moss, or A.J Dillon less impactful to your team. You become more likely to forgo them for receivers. If Jacobs is your first or second running back it’s more justifiable, but it becomes a question of floor vs. ceiling, and you are choosing the wrong answer.

There are several rushers with youth, pass catching and RB1 upside going rounds three through six in 2021. With two elite RB classes, 2017 and 2020, still at peak value, top end talents are being pushed into the dead zone. Gone are Leonard Fournette, Le’Veon Bell, Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon. Enter explosive options such as Miles Sanders, D’Andre Swift, and Travis Etienne.

Seeing Jerick McKinnon’s prevalence for the 49ers offense amidst injuries is important because it shows that there is a place of relevance for a pass-catching running back in San Francisco. While Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson were efficient with their targets, they did not receive enough to be top fantasy RBs. A physical runner and learned pass-catcher with Kyle Shanahan and Trey Lance’s trust is the key to unlocking an RB1 from the San Fran backfield.

RBs can quickly fall out of Kyle Shanahan’s favor. However, they can also quickly fall in favor, because he tends to utilize a “hot hand” approach more than a “bell cow” approach. Raheem Mostert and Wayne Gallman have the experience to heat up, while Trey Sermon has the size and Elijah Mitchell has the athleticism. However, will they be used enough in the passing game to warrant fantasy RB1 status?

James White averaged 8.3 (No. 46 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game last season. While that’s nothing that’ll get the group chat talking, his 17.8-percent (No. 3) Target Share and 4.4 targets per game might. Opportunity is king. And when you double up with a message saying the Patriots targeted backs at a league-leading 29.2-percent clip, some chatmates may throw you a like.

While David Montgomery is an early-round fade, Tarik Cohen is worth a dart throw at his ADP. In Weeks 1-3 when healthy, Cohen averaged a 37.3-percent Snap Share, 4.7 carries per game, 18 routes run per game, and 3.0 targets per game. For context, Montgomery averaged a 51.9-percent Snap Share, 14.3 carries per game, 16.3 routes per game, and 3.0 targets per game. Cohen’s going to have a defined role.

Lamar Jackson was the last remaining player in my first tier of quarterbacks. He has proven his generational rushing talent year after year, putting up an insane 1,005 (No. 1 among qualified quarterbacks) rushing yards and seven (No. 4) rushing touchdowns on 159 (No. 1) carries in 2020. His floor as a rusher alone should easily make him a QB1.

Michael Pittman’s upside at WR51 is undeniable. His early-second round draft capital is significant, and he gets a theoretical upgrade at quarterback from Jacoby Brissett to Carson Wentz. In the 12th round, I’ll take the chance that a player with a 111.2 (93rd-percentile) Speed Score and 10.25 (89th-percentile) Catch Radius breaks out in Year 2.

Only 11 of the top 21 picks in this SuperFlex startup draft were quarterbacks, including two rookies in Trey Lance and Trevor Lawrence. Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields were available here in round two, while D’Andre Swift and A.J. Brown were also on the board. Due to this league’s settings requiring only one running back to start, that position should be discounted. Hurts’ rushing ability gives him league-winning upside, so I chose him here to lock down the QB position.

Michael Thomas in the fifth round feels wrong. If Jameis Winston is under center, he will have the kind of league-winning upside that he showed in 2019. With Taysom Hill at quarterback, his ceiling is a little bit lower, but he is still a top receiver in the league. The only real mark against him in dynasty is his age, but he is younger than Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins, and only a year older than Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, and Mike Evans.

Amon-Ra St. Brown and Nico Collins jump up the board after landing in super shallow receiver rooms. St. Brown can seize a phenomenal opportunity to be the alpha in Detroit with his 86th-percentile Burst. Not to mention that he also checks the boxes for upper-percentile College Dominator Rating (62nd-percentile) and Breakout Age (91st-percentile).

Seth Williams is the biggest faller in this round after going at the 3.07 in the previous mock. Sixth round draft capital to a team with a crowded wide receiver depth chart sunk the value of what was once a coveted prospect in this circle. Though his upper-percentile College Dominator Rating, Breakout Age, and Speed Score give him the potential to break out regardless of his situation.

Grab a cup of water, this mock comes out of the gate HOT! Setting flames to a stacked QB class, Kyle Pitts boldly goes at the 1.01. That’s planting a flag, love the assertiveness! The win-win move is probably trading back and still acquiring Pitts – that’s not an option in this mock. He’s an uber talent, but the rookie has significant work to do to match the ultra-high expectations of this draft season.

In this TE premium format, our drafters take a gamble on several upside TEs in Round 5. Focusing on the right details, each of the tight-ends selected have one thing in common – athleticism. For instance, 6-5, 250-pound John Bates has an 11.20 (89th-percentile among qualified tight ends) Agility Score, while Indy’s Kylen Granson exhibits 75th-plus-percentile metrics across agility, burst and 40-time. The late-round lesson here: bet on athletes.

Of the 138 tight ends drafted since 2011, only Evan Engram finished his rookie year with a top five fantasy point-scoring season. “But what about that Falcons offense? Wasn’t that the best possible landing spot and doesn’t that guarantee Kyle Pitts to be a top fantasy tight end this year?” When Pitts finishes closer to No. 10 than No. 5, those that took him early in their best ball and redraft leagues will be disappointed.

In best ball and redraft leagues thus far, Pitts is being drafted like a top five fantasy tight end. While he has an impressive profile and draft capital, we have seen players with similar profiles in the past have varying career success levels. Spending a top 60 pick in best ball or a top 2 pick in dynasty rookie drafts on someone other than Pitts is a smarter decision based on history.

Kadarius Toney adds a different and unique element to the Giants offense when considering the skillsets of the players around him. He has the sort of special teams ability the Giants have lacked since the days of Ron Dixon and Willie Ponder, and he’s athletic enough to be used as a decoy X-receiver at worst while he acclimates to the pro game. He is a converted QB, so he has plenty of room to grow, though these kinds of players aren’t usually first round NFL Draft picks. 

While Chris Evans lost the draft capital and landing spot battle to fellow Michigan teammate Nico Collins, his stock didn’t plummet as far as Tamorrion Terry’s. Though he went undrafted, the Seattle WR depth chart is wide open behind D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who we advocated selling anyway. If anyone in this class has the potential to be this year’s UDFA gem, why not a guy who was as highly regarded a prospect as Terry was at one point?

With four RotoUnderworld SuperFlex/TE Premium mock drafts in the books, the top five in ADP has emerged as Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Trey Lance. It makes sense. Secure either the most highly regarded prospect in the class, an elite running back, or a mobile quarterback that oozes fantasy upside.

The strength of the class at the QB position is pushing plenty of upside into the second round of SuperFlex rookie drafts. Exciting wide receiver prospects Jaylen Waddle, Terrace Marshall, and Elijah Moore can all be drafted with an early-to-mid second. Kenny Gainwell did gain well to the tune of 12-pounds and continues to creep up into the mid-second round. Pat Freiermuth, Dyami Brown, and Michael Carter continue to be fixtures in the Pick No. 20 to 24 range.