The 2022 Falcons Backfield Breakdown is part of an offseason series in which I take a deep dive into one NFL team’s backfield and examine the respective rushing performances of the players in it. In doing so, I hope to gain insights into key players from a talent evaluation standpoint, and using that evaluation as a baseline, from a dynasty valuation standpoint.
The Las Vegas Raiders didn’t have this problem in 2021 when it was the Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller show. There was no third target in Las Vegas that demanded Derek Carr’s attention. Nothing could be further from the truth going into the 2022 campaign – not with the acquisition of Davante Adams, who is arguably the best receiver in the NFL.
Gibson is a controversial figure in dynasty these days. He has been efficient in his first two NFL seasons after converting from wide receiver at Memphis. His Box-Adjusted Efficiency Rating was the No.11-highest mark among lead backs last year. This came in higher than those of guys like Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb. He was even more impressive in that area in 2020, with a BAE Rating of 125.0-percent.
Have you drafted the wrong running back in the past? Are you tired of the Clyde Edwards Helaire’s of the fantasy world letting you down? Want to find yourself the next Alvin Kamara or Jonathan Taylor? Well, you’ve come to the right place. Consider this article dating advice for finding the right running back in your fantasy leagues. This article asks, what qualities make up the RB1 in fantasy football? This is part one in a series of articles that will be breaking down this topic, so stay tuned!
In order to be an RB1 in fantasy football, their Dominator Rating needs to be at least 34.0-percent. This was what Alvin Kamara’s was the year he became the RB1 in 2020. This was the lowest mark of any RB1 over the last five seasons. It’s fair to say, this is a mark any potential RB1 should be able to hit.
Every process is different. And there is likely no perfect one. But the existence of a repeatable process by which you make decisions helps you avoid bias. It lets you organize data or film in a way that fits within your broader strategy for Dynasty Rookie Drafts.
However you evaluate prospects, keep in mind their current and potential market values, draft archetypes of player who can maximize fantasy ceilings, and always make market-efficient choices.
Sometimes we need law and order to be restored. Workhorse backs with size, speed, athleticism and pass-catching ability are to be unleashed as league-winners. Undersized, slow satellite backs are to be left on the benches of fantasy and NFL teams respectively. Michael Carter had moments last year, but those drafting a day three change-of-pace back as their RB2 were whistling past the graveyard.
Rashaad Penny was an efficiency monster in 2021, and is first-hand evidence of Seattle’s ambivalent approach to draft capital. I expect Kenneth Walker to take over lead back duties as the modal outcome, but a messy committee or even Penny remaining lead back is within his range of outcomes. The question marks in Walker’s profile, along with the rest of the class and their limited draft capital, make me cautious of all running backs beyond Breece Hall.
While Denver’s WRs rightfully deserve upgrades in all formats, discourse over the increased value of Albert Okwuegbunam came into question. Comments in the Twitterverse claimed that, historically, Russell Wilson hasn’t utilized his tight ends. The intent of this first edition of Fantasy Football Mythbusters is to debunk this theory. We’ll do this by deriving an outcome deemed as possible, likely, or unlikely based on historical usage.
Throughout his career, Russell Wilson has had an aging Jimmy Graham, a misused Zach Miller, and mediocre talent at the tight end position. Regardless of their skillset, if the tight end is running routes, then Wilson will be sure to give them an opportunity to make a play. Combine this with Albert Okwuegbunam’s ability to gain yards after the catch, and comments from head coach Nathaniel Hackett about using him in a hybrid role to take advantage of his receiving skills, and he is a TE1 lock on a per-game basis.
Welcome to the latest and greatest arena where fantasy football takes thrive or die. A place where fantasy football propositions can gain validity or be thrown by the wayside. This is the second installment of the Fantasy Football Shark Tank.
Allen Robinson, Russell Gage, and Chase Edmonds should all be targeted in 2022. Given their talents and their new situations it will. Despite not being their new teams’ primary pass catchers, Gage and Robinson will get fantastic quarterback upgrades. And Edmonds is looking like he will get the first crack at being the Dolphins number one running back. It’s good process rostering any of these three players in the 2022 season.
Although many people love trade negotiations, others get intimidated and are risk-averse; fearing that their return may be perceived as the “loser” in the deal (which in dynasty is not a simple evaluation given that situations change every year, injuries happen, and values fluctuate). Thanks to smart people and technology, there are now numerous sites that host their own versions of trade calculators based on each site’s dynasty rankings.
Trading away young players that are perceived to be more valuable than what their profiles dictate, in exchange for depreciating assets with proven production, allows for more creativity in formulating trades with the additional assets acquired, or to rebuild a roster by acquiring future draft picks on top of proven talent that are past the age-apex curve.
In this edition of Thinking About Thinking (Ranges of Outcomes), I continue my series addressing probabilistic fantasy football strategy. Each article I will unpack ways our brains work in irrational ways that create value in your fantasy football leagues. Last week I discussed analytical prospect models, and the importance of humility when evaluating rookies. If you haven’t yet, make sure to check that out to get a feel for this series!
In a ceiling scenario, Tua Tagovailoa is a top-12 quarterback this year with his new weapons, entrenching himself as Miami’s franchise quarterback. On the other hand, he could fail to meet expectations and carry precarious job security into 2023. Schrodinger’s Tua is both alive and dead, but his cost resides in purgatory. His market value is a compromise position between two plausible outcomes which attempts to balance them appropriately.
